Been trying to take stock of the possibilities of where we are with the market:
1. We're in a bear market 2. Supercycle / S2FX 3. Cycles elongated, still on way to $1-200k peak
Here are my current thoughts (it's all WIP)...
1. We may be in a bear market. But if we are, $69k wasn't the peak... $64k in April 2021 was.
Basically, if leveraged derivatives trading wasn't a big part of this market (like in 2013 & 2017), maybe we would have gotten a blow-off top. Instead, funding rates were too HIGH
HODL waves and other on-chain activity also suggest that the market has been ~dormant since Q2.
This could be the final phase of a bear market, without us realizing we were in one!
You may have heard this metaphor before, but the details are fun to consider. It also helps explain Bitcoin's path to scaling up to handle the entire world's transactions.
A thread...
In 2019, 802M containers were shipped.
A large container ship holds 8,000 containers. If an average one holds 4,000 containers, this means ~200k container ship journeys per year.
Dollars, gold, #Bitcoin - which is the best for storing your hard earned money?
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All forms of money grow in total value as the global economy grows. What differs is how they do it.
The U.S. prints as many dollars as needed to achieve 2% inflation.
The only way to do this is to pull supply out to the right far enough that it deflates the purchasing power of all existing dollars by ~2%. (For your own good!)