First, some context. In Budget 2018 the carbon tax (just the retail levy, since I presume the UCP was not referring to the large-emitter carbon tax, which they support) was projected to be $1.5 billion by 2020/21.
That's approximately 0.4 percent of GDP. In 2017/18, it was 0.3.
I initially thought the largest tax increase would have been found back in Budget 1936 when we brought in a sales tax! That was two percent. Today that would be about 0.6 percent of GDP, so ... larger than than the CTax.
But then I remembered Budget 1987!!!
This budget contained *a lot* of tax increases (and new taxes!). The largest was personal income tax increases. (They did income taxes differently at the time, so don't worry about what those rates mean.)
This was 0.6 percent of GDP! Today equivalent to ~$2 billion.
Not only is that larger than the CTax, it was implemented right away! The CTax was phased in gradually over time. That's important, since it was really just a sequence of multiple tax increases.
Speaking of multiple tax increases, Budget 1987 kept going! Liquor and tobacco taxes went up. That was 0.3 percent of GDP. Nearly $1b equivalent today.
And what's this... a new tax: a gas tax! Five cents! 🚗That was 0.4 percent of GDP -- today equivalent to ~$1.3 billion.
Also, 5c/L is roughly the same as $23/tonne carbon tax :)
What about corporate taxes? Those went up from 10 to 15 percent ... immediately.
There were more changes to fees, fines, higher taxes on insurance companies, a new tax on hotels, and more! All together, it was nearly 2 percent of GDP (ish). Today that would be something like a $7 billion increase! In a single budget.
So, yeah, the CTax was not the largest tax increase.
Also, we can't forget the rebates!! The carbon tax setup was an increase in costs for some and a decrease for others! Roughly 40 percent of families had rebates > CTax costs. policyschool.ca/wp-content/upl…
So what really was the largest tax increase in Alberta history? I don't know. But I know what it wasn't, and now you do too! 🤓🥳
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Remarkable that following such a massive shock, federal debt services costs will average ~1.2 percent of GDP for 2021-2026. Budget 2019, prior to COVID, was projecting debt services costs of 1.2 percent from 2021 onwards.
Those claiming the fiscal sky will soon fall due to this federal borrowing are ... mistaken
Simple illustration: If beyond 2026 we have interest rates ~3 percent & NGDP growth ~4 & revenue/GDP is stable & real per capita spending is stable --> debt/GDP gets to pre-COVID levels by 2034. Far sooner than previous projections.
CPI up 4.1% in August compared to last year. Highest since 2003. Excluding food/energy (which are highly volatile), prices up 3%. #cdnecon
Important to remember, though, that much of the higher inflation we've seen in recent months is in part due to drops during COVID and prices returning to trend today means above-average inflation since last year's levels are lower.
Here's an illustration of that.
Also important to remember that the central bank looks to several measures to understand inflation pressures. Here are three of their main metrics. One exceeds the target range, the two others still don't.
In total, Canada is now up to 28.2 million shots given -- which is 89.9% of the total 31.4 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,546,940 doses have been delivered to provinces.
And so far 4.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:
- Those 60+: 89.8% have at least one dose and 26.5% have two
- 18-59: it's 68.7% and 8.7%
- Adults: 75.1% and 14.1%
Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 21.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 67.0% and 9.0%
- Adults: 73.8% and 12.7%
Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.7 million shots given -- which is 90.4% of the total 30.7 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,925,050 doses have been delivered to provinces.
And so far 3.7 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.