Karaganov here promotes emerging Russian discourse of "constructive destruction" of Western-centeric Russian foreign policy. In other words - practical steps towards multipolarity in the 21st century. Thread. 1/
Karaganov says Russia does not wish to war with anyone for now for as long as it is not threatened (taking Ukraine to the West is a threat). Basically, he says Russia needs to wait out until West finally gives up pretending that it is almighty and a deal would be made
Then Russia can rebuild its relations with the West to balance growing might of China.
Karaganov, unlike Kortunov for instance, claims Russia should abandon all attempts to play by the West's rule and invest in new rules of Greater Eurasia.
This means further disregards for rules of the game of "rules based order", "euro-atlantic security" and so on.
For one, he claims Russia must recollect some of the "lost lands" since "Somalization" should not be allowed.
Karaganov notes key moments of recent Russian history: lost of trust in the West in late 1999, US is allowing itself too much in 2000s, war in Georgia, growing alliance with China and by 2017-2018 he says Russia became a strong power again.
He says the escalation we are seeing now near the border with Ukraine is the beginning of the "constructive deconstruction of relations with the West". He reiterates that his hope is that West will come around and will accept new reality of things.
NATO, according to Karaganov has to go. Moreover he asserts that US would not abide by article 5 if there would be risk of confrontation with nuclear power. (Hi, Estonia!). OSCE is dead according to Karaganov as well.
He even goes into claiming that EU and Council of Europe
should receive a very limited attention from Russia with only necessary interactions.
What should Russia do, according to Karaganov?
1. Stop interfering in Western affairs and shield itself from it. Assert Russia's position and stand strong.
2. Take Russia's resources
and go East, invest in Siberia and alliance with China. Future is Asian, he claims. Or Eurasian, depending on flavoring.
globalaffairs.ru/articles/ot-ra…

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More from @ABarbashin

Feb 3
What will happen in Russia domestically in case Russia - US talks fail and major escalation is on its way. @Stanovaya here for @CarnegieRussia raises a number of important points. Thread 1/9
Naturally if the frontier is on fire, all the conservative forces would accelerate their efforts to secure the country from within with triple speed.
Obviously the first target would be the internet. 2/9
I can imagine a situation of a massive coordinated attack by Rozkomnadzor+ on foreign platforms with demands to ban "war propaganda" which could be anything and everything that Russia would be denying at the moment: failure to comply will lead to slowing down and blocking 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Feb 2
Insightful @pavel_luzin on the evolution of Russian defense policy based on recent drills in #Belarus, #CSTO events in #Kazakhstan and all the maneuvering around #Ukraine. Thread 1/12
ridl.io/en/the-dynamic…
1. Luzin asserts that you need to add defense spending to “National Security and Law Enforcement” budget spending to see a broader picture and it is that spending is on the rise since 2021 and will rise at least until 2024 after stabilization of 2017–2020. 2/12
Russia seems to have already entered a phase of long-term increase in spending. From the perspective of the Russian authorities, the need for such an increase is no longer closely linked to the overall growth rate of the economy. 3/12
Read 12 tweets
Jan 19
Karaganov often speaks what Russia's most conservative foreign policy minds think (military but not only)
Few gems from his recent interview:
1/12
What can Russia do to force US to take it seriously?
Karaganov says Russia has three ways - beefing up military presence across the board, strengthening military alliance with China, cyberwar
2/12
Karaganov says if it was not for nukes, West would have already attacked Russia.
He says it is better for Russia to relive Cuban missile crisis than second June 22nd of 1941. In other words, better escalate now, on Russia's term than be attacked later. Not being attacked
3/12
Read 13 tweets
Jan 18
What do Russians think about the war with Ukraine and Russian - NATO confrontation? Will they support overt activity?
Thread based on Levada's director Denis Volkov piece for @RiddleRussia
ridl.io/en/we-are-bein…
1/9
50% of Russians think major war with Ukraine is impossible;
39% think otherwise.
1/4 believe war with NATO is possible(highest number ever); the rest think otherwise
2/9
62% of Russians, highest since collapse of the USSR feared war in the spring of 2021 - after Putin/Biden meeting in December it dropped to 56%.
3/9
Read 9 tweets
Dec 27, 2021
Few observations about reader preferences with Russia analysis. So, we @RiddleRussia @RidlRussia posted most read articles of the year with: #Riddletop10_2021 and #Riddle_топ_2021. We have about same amount of people reading us in English and in Russian.
Out of 10 most read
articles only two made it to both lists, Vladimir Gelman on #Sputnik "success story" ridl.io/en/sputnik-v-o… and Igor Gretskiy on Russia - NATO relations in 1990s ridl.io/en/could-the-w…;
Topics of most interest to English speaking readers: simply foreign policy - Russia and
Ukraine, Afghanistan, Syria, China, Central Asia, Libya and Russian military. Among a few exceptions is @fa_burkhardt's piece on PM Mishustin's ambitions ridl.io/en/foolproofin…;
For Russian speakers it is much more diverse list: elections (Smart Voting efficiency -
Read 4 tweets
Dec 21, 2021
Seeing a lot of speculation about Russia's timing over escalation with Ukraine and NATO. Some have argued this is about Russia's domestic transition while others insist this is EU/US presumably "weak" moment that made Russia move. Few thoughts. THREAD 1/16
I don't buy the argument that Putin is about to leave office...in 2024 and thus he wants to close the page over Ukraine and secure Russia's western border for good, so he could retire and enjoy occasional mojito in his southern palace at Cape Idokopas. 2/16
I have strong doubts he will leave in 2024 and even if he does step down as president to become a "national leader" or some other fancy title to indeed supervise his own transit (like in KZ) this does not explain the seemingly unbearable urgency of the moment. 3/16
Read 16 tweets

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