Thread by @ABarbashin

Insightful @pavel_luzin on the evolution of Russian defense policy based on recent drills in #Belarus, #CSTO events in #Kazakhstan and all the maneuvering around #Ukraine. Thread 1/12
ridl.io/en/the-dynamic…

1. Luzin asserts that you need to add defense spending to “National Security and Law Enforcement” budget spending to see a broader picture and it is that spending is on the rise since 2021 and will rise at least until 2024 after stabilization of 2017–2020. 2/12

Russia seems to have already entered a phase of long-term increase in spending. From the perspective of the Russian authorities, the need for such an increase is no longer closely linked to the overall growth rate of the economy. 3/12

Luzin notes of a problem that stands in the way of the transition from quantitative indicators to a new quality of Russia’s military capabilities, for example here and it seems in 2021 it became a recognized issue for the military leadership 4/12
ridl.io/en/the-technic…

What does it mean? Russian army is working on "out-of-the-box thinking among Russian commanders", revising military manuals, tactical guidelines, training courses and norms, etc. 5/12

Kremlin is currently experimenting, trying to strike a balance between proactive and unconventionally thinking officers and well-trained soldiers, sergeants and warrant officers on one hand, and ensuring their full loyalty to the country’s political leadership on the other 6/12

As for the CSTO operation in KZ and major redeployment of the Eastern Military District troops to Belarus: Russia continues to hone the mobility of its armed forces within the continent, but is approaching the upper ceiling of its capabilities 7/12

Transfer of 2,500 peacekeepers and minimum quantity of military equipment required for mission in KZ over course of 3 days was ensured by more than 70 IL-76 aircrafts out of approx. 110 available airplanes. Confirming our conclusions from 3 years ago:ridl.io/en/russia-s-ri…
8/12

As regards redeployment of weapons and military equipment by rail from the Far East to Belarus: And the Russian military is clearly learning how to optimize the use of available rail platforms, positioning some types of military equipment at the joints of adjacent platforms 9/12

Redeployments and military exercises that are taking place today are intended mostly to work out logistics between various military districts located in different parts of Russia, as well as to deploy and manage troops in case of a major military campaign on the continent. 10/12

Moscow is using these actions to get a better understanding of where and how to further develop ground forces in context of high quantities of previously supplied weapons and volumes of resources that will not be sufficient to address all officially stated military needs 11/12

For more details check ridl.io/en/the-dynamic…
And @pavel_luzin analysis for @RiddleRussia here
ridl.io/en/author/e-lu… 12/12