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Feb 16 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Today's data: inflation! 📈

Average consumer prices in January 2022 were 5.1% higher than a year earlier. Highest since 1991. Excluding energy, prices were 4% higher. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… #cdnecon
What's behind the accelerating inflation rate? This visual might help. It decomposes the change in inflation due to several important components. Energy prices and household depreciation account for most of the change.
What's homeowners' replace cost (i.e., depreciation)? I explain here: thehub.ca/2022-01-25/mak…
That piece also explains why energy is a large contributor to inflation. The strong link between global oil prices and the gasoline contribution to CPI remains the case in January. This is important context some politicos neglect.

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More from @trevortombe

Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Feb 12
It's tough to know for sure what the largest tax increase in Alberta history was, but it was not the carbon tax. 🧵🤓 #ableg
First, some context. In Budget 2018 the carbon tax (just the retail levy, since I presume the UCP was not referring to the large-emitter carbon tax, which they support) was projected to be $1.5 billion by 2020/21.

That's approximately 0.4 percent of GDP. In 2017/18, it was 0.3.
I initially thought the largest tax increase would have been found back in Budget 1936 when we brought in a sales tax! That was two percent. Today that would be about 0.6 percent of GDP, so ... larger than than the CTax.
Read 12 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Dec 14, 2021
Remarkable that following such a massive shock, federal debt services costs will average ~1.2 percent of GDP for 2021-2026. Budget 2019, prior to COVID, was projecting debt services costs of 1.2 percent from 2021 onwards.
Those claiming the fiscal sky will soon fall due to this federal borrowing are ... mistaken
Simple illustration: If beyond 2026 we have interest rates ~3 percent & NGDP growth ~4 & revenue/GDP is stable & real per capita spending is stable --> debt/GDP gets to pre-COVID levels by 2034. Far sooner than previous projections.

If spending/GDP is stable, then it's 2038.
Read 4 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Sep 21, 2021
Interesting pattern in #elxn44vote: 21 ridings have CPC+PPC vote shares above the LPC or NDP winning share.

This doesn't imply CPC would have won if PPC didn't exist, of course. But it's interesting.
A non-trivial number of seats were at stake. Even if just a relatively small share of the PPC vote went to CPC. #elxn44vote
Of course, "vote splitting" is a much larger issue between LPC and NDP than between CPC and now PPC.
Read 4 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Sep 15, 2021
Today's data: inflation! 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

CPI up 4.1% in August compared to last year. Highest since 2003. Excluding food/energy (which are highly volatile), prices up 3%. #cdnecon
Important to remember, though, that much of the higher inflation we've seen in recent months is in part due to drops during COVID and prices returning to trend today means above-average inflation since last year's levels are lower.

Here's an illustration of that.
Also important to remember that the central bank looks to several measures to understand inflation pressures. Here are three of their main metrics. One exceeds the target range, the two others still don't.
Read 7 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Sep 2, 2021
Seeing some claim that Canada would need 3% real GDP growth for the CPC plan to balance in ten years to work out.

I strongly disagree. Agree or disagree with the goal, it's entirely credible. I'll explain. #Elxn44 #cdnpoli
First, obviously some negative event (recession/etc) might arrive before 2031 and throw things off. But with that caveat in mind:

If federal revenues grow with the economy, then *nominal* growth of 3.8% (real of 1.8%) would result in ~565b in revenue by 2031.
How'd I get that? Well the PBO baseline projection for 2025 is 452.1 billion. And 452.1*1.038^6 = 565 billion.
Read 9 tweets
Trevor Tombe Profile picture
Jun 12, 2021
Today's vaccine update 💉

- Shots reported today*: 510,910 (new record!)
- Share 2nd shots: 64%- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 72.9%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 75.1% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 74.3
- Inventory: 7.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/
In total, Canada is now up to 28.2 million shots given -- which is 89.9% of the total 31.4 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,546,940 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 4.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.8% have at least one dose and 26.5% have two
- 18-59: it's 68.7% and 8.7%
- Adults: 75.1% and 14.1%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
Read 15 tweets

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