1) There are at least two jurisdictions that are now in the grip of rising #COVID deaths from the so-called #Omicron stealth variant BA.2 – Denmark and Hong Kong. Each has taken a different approach to managing the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show the failings of each.
2) First, though, let us focus on Hong Kong, where the BA.2 contagion is now so severe that a hospital in the city of 7 million has run out of space, with patients receiving care on gurneys. It’s the worst such outbreak in Hong Kong since the start of the #pandemic two years ago.
3) Hong Kong has taken the so-called Zero COVID approach throughout the #pandemic, using sophisticated track-and-tracing, quarantining entire apartment blocks, even culling 2,500 hamsters after a pet store worker and some rodents tested positive.
4) Yet despite those stringent measures, #COVID deaths in Hong Kong are now rising after the special administrative region reported few deaths for many months. This clearly confirms that BA.2 is far more contagious and far more lethal than previous #coronavirus strains.
5) But arguably the one missing element from Hong Kong’s #pandemic strategy has been the widespread vaccination of its elderly. Although young Hongkongers have mostly embraced vaccination, those over the age of 80 are resisting.
6) Only 36% of Hong Kong’s population above 80 has received a first dose, compared with Québec, where 95% of those over the age of 60 got the first jab. And as the chart below reveals, Hong Kong lags far behind Canada and Denmark in administering booster shots to counter BA.2.
7) Now let us turn to progressive Denmark, which for months had adopted the “vaccines-plus” strategy – widespread immunization along with track-and-tracing, #COVID testing and public health protections like vaccine passports and having to wear a mask while using public transit.
8) But on Feb. 1, Denmark ended vaccine passports to enter bars and restaurants, among other measures, after the Danish Epidemic Commission concluded #COVID19 no longer posed a “critical threat” to society. Meanwhile, the more pathogenic BA.2 strain was on the loose in Denmark.
9) As a result, Denmark has had to defend its lifting of public health measures following a spike in #pandemic deaths, asserting that many of these were “with COVID” rather than “from COVID.” Regardless, excess mortality seems to be trending higher, as the chart below suggests.
10) Time and again during this #pandemic, #COVID variants of concern have arisen (mostly in areas with low vaccination), causing surges in hospitalizations in many jurisdictions. People in much of the world still haven’t received a first dose, let alone a booster shot. See below.
11) Under such conditions, the examples of Hong Kong and Denmark serve as reminders the “vaccines-plus” strategy remains best option for now as we face what Scientific American has described as “the fastest-spreading virus in human history.” End of thread. scientificamerican.com/article/omicro…
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1) In its #COVID19 epidemiological report this week, the World Health Organization noted the stealth #Omicron sub-variant BA.2 was “steadily increasing” in its spread, particularly in South Africa and Denmark. In this thread, I will report the latest developments concerning BA.2.
2) The WHO found that BA.2 prevalence soared from 27% in South Africa on Feb. 4 to 86% by Feb. 11. In Denmark, BA.2 prevalence climbed from 20% in the last week of 2021 to 66% by the third week of January. These two countries are now recording rises in #COVID deaths. See below.
3) “Early evidence from limited studies suggest BA.2 is more transmissible as compared with BA.1,” the WHO concludes in its report. “Estimates of growth rates in Denmark indicate that BA.2 is 30% more transmissible than BA.1.”
1) As Russia masses more than 150,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, it’s worth noting #COVID deaths are rising in both nations, with the #Omicron variant causing the latest viral fatalities. In this thread, I will assess the #pandemic's impact on a potential war and vice versa.
2) First, though, let us review the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on World War I. “It might seem like a coincidence that a global pandemic of influenza happens at the same time as the First World War, but in fact they’re related,” says historian Christopher Capozzola.
3) “This is a time when you have tons of people living in close quarters together, particularly those serving in the military,” Capozzola recounts of that period. “You have shortages of food and good housing that mean that people are just not as healthy.” theworldwar.org/learn/pandemic…
1) Soon after the #Omicron coronavirus strain was detected in South Africa last November, public health experts the world over insisted this was a “milder” variant than Delta. But as I will show in this thread, at least in Québec, Omicron is now causing more death than Delta.
2) Since Jan. 1, Québec’s Health Ministry has declared a cumulative total of 2,038 deaths (with some of those fatalities occurring in late 2021 but only recorded at the start of the year.) That compares with 1,914 for the corresponding period last year. Please see below.
3) In fact, the peak of Québec's current mortality wave is the second highest after the #pandemic’s first wave two years ago. However, the Delta-driven mortality wave that peaked last January started much earlier than the current one. Please review the panoramic chart below.
1) Denmark is in the midst of a BA.2-fuelled wave that is currently driving up #COVID19 deaths, even as that country has lifted public health protections. In this thread, I will assess the potential impact of this sub-variant on Québec, which is also phasing out safety measures.
2) BA.2 has been labelled a “stealth” sub-variant of #Omicron. As you can see from the chart below released last week by Danish public health authorities, the BA.1 Omicron sub-variant flared up in Denmark in late November. It’s coded in blue.
3) But in the new year, BA.1 has quickly been superseded by sub-variants BA.2 (in pink in the chart below) and BA.2_H78 (in green). A preliminary Danish study has found that BA.2 is not only more contagious than original Omicron, it’s more likely to infect vaccinated individuals.
1) Throughout the pandemic, Sweden has distinguished itself dubiously from its Scandinavian neighbors with its much more laissez-faire approach, even at one point promoting the now-discredited notion of herd immunity. And last Wednesday, it claimed the #COVID pandemic was over.
2) In recent days, a number of Canadian provinces have rushed to eliminate public health protections – in effect, following Sweden’s example. In this thread, I will compare how the two countries have fared in the #pandemic – from public health measures to vaccination.
3) First, though, it’s worth examining the impact of the #pandemic on the death rates of the two countries. Sweden, with a population of 10.3 million, has to date declared a cumulative total of 16,501 #COVID deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.
1) Some Québec parents are now traveling to Plattsburgh to get their teenagers boosted with a third #COVID dose because the government here has chosen not to expand booster immunization for this entire age group. In this thread, I will examine the science behind this decision.
2) First, though, let me share with you what I’ve learned about this example of medical tourism, which is somewhat reminiscent of Québec cancer patients traveling to Plattsburgh in 1999 (but at the government's expense) because of a lack of oncology resources in the province.
3) One Montreal mother drove across the U.S. border on Friday to get her two teens boosted. The shots were free, but the mom had to pay $125 for each child for a #COVID test to return with the all-clear to Canada.