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Aaron Derfel Profile picture
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Feb 16 • 12 tweets • 6 min read
1) Soon after the #Omicron coronavirus strain was detected in South Africa last November, public health experts the world over insisted this was a “milder” variant than Delta. But as I will show in this thread, at least in Québec, Omicron is now causing more death than Delta.
2) Since Jan. 1, Québec’s Health Ministry has declared a cumulative total of 2,038 deaths (with some of those fatalities occurring in late 2021 but only recorded at the start of the year.) That compares with 1,914 for the corresponding period last year. Please see below.
3) In fact, the peak of Québec's current mortality wave is the second highest after the #pandemic’s first wave two years ago. However, the Delta-driven mortality wave that peaked last January started much earlier than the current one. Please review the panoramic chart below.
4) This likely has to do with the fact Québec authorities started administering COVID vaccines during the Delta wave only in mid-December of 2020. Although much more of Québec’s population is inoculated this time around, there have still been more deaths in January and February.
5) And during this period, #Omicron has killed slightly more younger Québecers, including tragically a 4-year-old girl on Jan. 17, coincidentally the peak of the latest wave. What’s more, four Québecers in their 20s have died in the last few moths compared with one last January.
6) These deaths have occurred amid the highest wave of #COVID hospitalizations than at any point in the #pandemic in Québec. The chart below shows the 5th wave peaking at 3,140 hospitalizations, including 285 ICU stays, compared with 220 such stays during the second wave.
7) Although the #Delta variant came close to causing a collapse of Québec’s health-care system, it turned out that the supposedly milder Omicron strain did so, as I analyzed in a column in the @mtlgazette last month. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
8) On Wednesday, on the day the Québec government announced it would spend $65 million to recruit 1,000 nurses from overseas, La Presse and Radio-Canada followed up on my earlier reports of a massive surgical backlog: a record of nearly 159,000 operations. montrealgazette.com/news/local-new…
9) So I dare to ask: Given the deplorable state of Québec's health system, will any cancer and cardiac patients die before their surgery? How many of the 159,000 waiting are in agonizing pain, some of them suffering from acute #COVID and some of them afflicted with #LongCovid ?
10) Which brings us back to the #Omicron death toll. As I reported in my Twitter thread last night, Denmark is beset with an even more contagious Omicron sub-variant, BA.2, that is causing a spike in deaths. Denmark’s mortality wave rose again Wednesday. Please take a look below.
11) BA.2 is present in Québec, too, comprising up to 15% of cases in Montréal. As this #coronavirus sub-variant circulates here amid the controversial easing of public health measures, what impact will it have on mortality in the province? End of thread. scientificamerican.com/article/omicro…
ADDENDUM: I'd like to correct an error. The Delta variant started circulating in Québec in late summer 2021, not January. In January 2021, the Beta variant of concern was spreading here, followed by Alpha. My apologies. However, the thrust of my thread about Omicron is the same.

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More from @Aaron_Derfel

Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 18
1) As Russia masses more than 150,000 troops along Ukraine’s borders, it’s worth noting #COVID deaths are rising in both nations, with the #Omicron variant causing the latest viral fatalities. In this thread, I will assess the #pandemic's impact on a potential war and vice versa. Image
2) First, though, let us review the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on World War I. “It might seem like a coincidence that a global pandemic of influenza happens at the same time as the First World War, but in fact they’re related,” says historian Christopher Capozzola.
3) “This is a time when you have tons of people living in close quarters together, particularly those serving in the military,” Capozzola recounts of that period. “You have shortages of food and good housing that mean that people are just not as healthy.” theworldwar.org/learn/pandemic…
Read 11 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 17
1) There are at least two jurisdictions that are now in the grip of rising #COVID deaths from the so-called #Omicron stealth variant BA.2 – Denmark and Hong Kong. Each has taken a different approach to managing the #pandemic. In this thread, I will show the failings of each. Image
2) First, though, let us focus on Hong Kong, where the BA.2 contagion is now so severe that a hospital in the city of 7 million has run out of space, with patients receiving care on gurneys. It’s the worst such outbreak in Hong Kong since the start of the #pandemic two years ago. Image
3) Hong Kong has taken the so-called Zero COVID approach throughout the #pandemic, using sophisticated track-and-tracing, quarantining entire apartment blocks, even culling 2,500 hamsters after a pet store worker and some rodents tested positive.
Read 11 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 16
1) Denmark is in the midst of a BA.2-fuelled wave that is currently driving up #COVID19 deaths, even as that country has lifted public health protections. In this thread, I will assess the potential impact of this sub-variant on Québec, which is also phasing out safety measures.
2) BA.2 has been labelled a “stealth” sub-variant of #Omicron. As you can see from the chart below released last week by Danish public health authorities, the BA.1 Omicron sub-variant flared up in Denmark in late November. It’s coded in blue.
3) But in the new year, BA.1 has quickly been superseded by sub-variants BA.2 (in pink in the chart below) and BA.2_H78 (in green). A preliminary Danish study has found that BA.2 is not only more contagious than original Omicron, it’s more likely to infect vaccinated individuals.
Read 12 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 13
1) Throughout the pandemic, Sweden has distinguished itself dubiously from its Scandinavian neighbors with its much more laissez-faire approach, even at one point promoting the now-discredited notion of herd immunity. And last Wednesday, it claimed the #COVID pandemic was over. Image
2) In recent days, a number of Canadian provinces have rushed to eliminate public health protections – in effect, following Sweden’s example. In this thread, I will compare how the two countries have fared in the #pandemic – from public health measures to vaccination.
3) First, though, it’s worth examining the impact of the #pandemic on the death rates of the two countries. Sweden, with a population of 10.3 million, has to date declared a cumulative total of 16,501 #COVID deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.
Read 10 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 12
1) Some Québec parents are now traveling to Plattsburgh to get their teenagers boosted with a third #COVID dose because the government here has chosen not to expand booster immunization for this entire age group. In this thread, I will examine the science behind this decision.
2) First, though, let me share with you what I’ve learned about this example of medical tourism, which is somewhat reminiscent of Québec cancer patients traveling to Plattsburgh in 1999 (but at the government's expense) because of a lack of oncology resources in the province.
3) One Montreal mother drove across the U.S. border on Friday to get her two teens boosted. The shots were free, but the mom had to pay $125 for each child for a #COVID test to return with the all-clear to Canada.
Read 14 tweets
Aaron Derfel Profile picture
Feb 10
1) As countries around the world rush to lift public health protections in the #pandemic, it’s instructive to check out what's happening now in areas that were first hit by the super contagious Omicron variant: South Africa and Denmark. Are they much better off? The answer is no.
2) On Dec. 30, the government of South Africa declared its #Omicron-fuelled wave officially over and proceeded to ease restrictions, including eliminating a nighttime curfew. The country was first buffeted by the supposedly mild variant in mid-November. How is it doing today?
3) It’s true #COVID deaths in South Africa peaked on Jan. 24 and then plunged soon afterward. But the mortality wave has since rebounded, as the chart below by Our World in Data reveals. Epidemiologically, the most reliable indicator of the severity of the pandemic are deaths.
Read 13 tweets

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