Final thoughts on tonight's #UNSC meeting on #Ukraine:

(1) Western UNSC members were tough (lots of talk of non-UN sanctions) but holding onto last chance for diplomatic way out. [1/5]
(2) @RussiaUN didn't have anything of note to add to #Putin's speech earlier today.

At least Nebenzia chaired the whole event properly as UNSC president. [2/5]
(3) Western UNSC members framed Russia's actions as an attack on the UN Charter and international system.

Non-Western members split on this framing in a very interesting way... [3/5]
The African UNSC members and Mexico basically agreed with Western members that an attack on Ukraine is an attack on @UN norms.

And Kenya in particular framed this brilliantly in terms of imperialism and colonialism. That was one of the best #UNSC speeches I have heard. [4/5]
But some big non-Western #UNSC members (Brazil, India and UAE) seemed to want to frame this as a local problem requiring dialogue, not a global crisis.

And China just didn't know what to say at all... [ENDS.]

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More from @RichardGowan1

Feb 22
India is first non-NATO country to speak on #Ukraine in #UNSC tonight. Lots of talk about the need for diplomacy, de-escalation, etc. But no reference to Ukraine's sovereignty or condemnation of Russia.
Brazil expresses "extreme concern" about Ukraine in #UNSC, and calls for diplomacy for peace. Does raise sovereign equality of states and territorial integrity.

Avoids using the word "Russia".
Mexico (3rd non-NATO speaker on Ukraine in UNSC) does call out Russia -- a little more gingerly than NATO members but by name -- and talks about Ukrainian sovereignty. Notably firmer than India and Brazil, although also pivoting to diplomacy and dialogue.
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
Depressing report on the state of @OSCE_SMM from @guardian. As it notes, the mission has always faced criticism from all sides in #Ukraine, but... [1/4] theguardian.com/world/2022/feb…
... as I noted @CFR_CPA in December, @OSCE_SMM is also (for good or ill) a model for the sort of peace operations that are possible in conflicts involving major powers. [2/4] cfr.org/report/major-p…
The case for @OSCE_SMM was well-made in a recent article by @UmlandAndreas and co-authors that I cited @CFR_CPA . [3/4]
Read 4 tweets
Jan 17
Last week, @columlynch published a very good piece @ForeignPolicy about how the #UNSC might respond to a Russian offensive against #Ukraine.

Colum kindly quoted me, and I wanted to add a few points to the article (mainly for @UN wonks).

A 🧵 [1/12] foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/14/bid…
There have been snarky responses to @columlynch's piece accusing anyone who thinks @UN can help #Ukraine are "clowns" etc.

But as I said "Nobody actually thinks that the Council will have a significant substantive role in negotiating a conclusion to a new war in Ukraine." [2/12]
.@USUN, @RussiaUN and other Council members will use the #UNSC to try to shape political narrative around #Ukraine.

For example, Russia recently held an informal SC meeting on threats to minorities in the #Baltics and #Ukraine.

See @SCRtweets: [3/12] securitycouncilreport.org/whatsinblue/20…
Read 12 tweets
Jan 17
Good to see @SandraBreka make a full-throated defence of EU style multilateralism @UN @ProSyn, though @antonioguterres and advisers might not put it this way. There are grumblings around UNHQ that "Our Common Agenda" is "too European" its priorities. [1/5]
project-syndicate.org/commentary/eu-…
But if @PoliticoRyan is right and Angela Merkel will play a leading role in "Our Common Agenda" follow-up, it is going to be hard to deny that the EU and its vision of multilateralism are pretty central to the project. [2/5] politico.com/newsletters/gl…
We have certainly seen @antonioguterres drawing closer to the EU in recent years, as symbolised by his meeting with the EU Council last summer (Cc. @FamaNelMondo @CrisisGroup). [3/5] crisisgroup.org/europe-central…
Read 5 tweets
Dec 24, 2021
With all eyes on #Ukraine, expect to hear more about the @OSCE and its @OSCE_SMM in the days/weeks ahead. [1/5] euractiv.com/section/global…
As I argue @CFR_CPA, the @OSCE/@OSCE_SMM set-up in #Ukraine is a prime example of the multilateral "conflict containment" strategies that have evolved in the last decade in wars involving #Russia (pp7-13). [2/5]cfr.org/report/major-p…
It's worth checking out this excellent article by @UmlandAndreas and colleagues on the @OSCE_SMM. [3/5] brill.com/view/journals/…
Read 5 tweets
Dec 22, 2021
Fascinating 🧵 by @heatherwilly on the P5's joint paper on strategic nuclear domain, which highlights the importance of crisis prevention/communication mechanisms.

This ties in with questions I have about the potential for P5 dialogues on non-nuclear conflict management. [1/5]
As I argue @CFR_CPA/@CFR_org, the P5 could do more joint confidence-building work on other (ultimately lower-stakes) conflict management issues like #humanitarian aid, #stabilisation etc. on the model of their nuclear talks. [2/5] cfr.org/report/major-p…
Such P5 work (deliberately at a distance from the fetid day-to-day diplomacy of the #UNSC) could pave the way for the P5 summit that @franceonu has been pursuing for the last 2 years. [3/5] news.un.org/en/story/2021/…
Read 5 tweets

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