With all eyes on #Ukraine, expect to hear more about the @OSCE and its @OSCE_SMM in the days/weeks ahead. [1/5] euractiv.com/section/global…
As I argue @CFR_CPA, the @OSCE/@OSCE_SMM set-up in #Ukraine is a prime example of the multilateral "conflict containment" strategies that have evolved in the last decade in wars involving #Russia (pp7-13). [2/5]cfr.org/report/major-p…
It's worth checking out this excellent article by @UmlandAndreas and colleagues on the @OSCE_SMM. [3/5] brill.com/view/journals/…
As @UmlandAndreas and his co-authors argue, @OSCE_SMM has brought transparency to the #Ukraine conflict, plus assisted local ceasefires, but cannot change the strategic picture. [4/5]
Still, as @CrisisGroup noted in our most recent piece on #Russia and #Ukraine, a settlement to the current crisis could still involve more @UN and/or @OSCE monitoring...

Follow @OlyaOliker, @OlegIgnatov18 & @kquinnjudge for more as events develop. [5/5] crisisgroup.org/europe-central…

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More from @RichardGowan1

22 Dec
Fascinating 🧵 by @heatherwilly on the P5's joint paper on strategic nuclear domain, which highlights the importance of crisis prevention/communication mechanisms.

This ties in with questions I have about the potential for P5 dialogues on non-nuclear conflict management. [1/5]
As I argue @CFR_CPA/@CFR_org, the P5 could do more joint confidence-building work on other (ultimately lower-stakes) conflict management issues like #humanitarian aid, #stabilisation etc. on the model of their nuclear talks. [2/5] cfr.org/report/major-p…
Such P5 work (deliberately at a distance from the fetid day-to-day diplomacy of the #UNSC) could pave the way for the P5 summit that @franceonu has been pursuing for the last 2 years. [3/5] news.un.org/en/story/2021/…
Read 5 tweets
23 Feb
Today @BorisJohnson will become the first British Prime Minister since John Major in 1992 to chair a meeting of the #UnitedNations Security Council. What's going on?

It's all about #ClimateAction [1/5]
Today's @UKUN_NewYork debate at the #UNSC, which will also feature John Kerry and David Attenborough, is a big step-up in UNSC discussions of the links between the #ClimateCrisis and conflict. [2/5]
The #UNSC has been discussing #climatechange for nearly 15 years (and I think it was @UKUN_NewYork that first floated it in the Council). See my ex-boss @Rob_Malley's remarks to an informal UNSC meeting last April. [3/5] crisisgroup.org/global/climate…
Read 5 tweets
22 Oct 20
This @nyuCIC database on @UN senior appointments helps challenge one popular UN myth: That Chinese officials are taking over all the top jobs in #multilateralism. Let's take a look at the actual numbers 👇 [1/4]
It's worth saying up front that this @nyuCIC database counts senior @UN jobs in the secretariat, peace operations and UN political missions. It doesn't include specialised agencies like @FAO or @UNIDO, which are currently under Chinese management. Nonetheless... [2/4]
What jumps out is that @Chinamission2un has actually filled very few of the senior jobs counted by @nyuCIC: 10 since 1995 and 4 since 2015.

That's fewer than, say, Norway or Canada (the figures below are for 2015-2020) and tiny compared to the USA. [3/4]
Read 4 tweets
1 Jul 20
Now that the #UNSC has passed a resolution endorsing the @UN #GlobalCeasefire, a few thoughts on (i) how we got here; and (ii) if this actually means anything 👇 [1/8]
.@CrisisGroup (like many other NGOs) called for the #UNSC to back @antonioguterres' #GlobalCeasefire campaign in April, although we had two caveats... [2/8] crisisgroup.org/global/global-…
Our first caveat was that the #GlobalCeasefire was never likely to be really "global". Different conflict parties would take it differently depending on their interests, strategies and views of #COVID. That remains the case today. [3/8]
Read 8 tweets
12 Jun 20
What is the future of @UNPeacekeeping in the #COVID19 era? Following up on strong articles by @CedricdeConing, @NamieDiRazza, @DeSachenka, @AdamDayNYC, @CharlieKwame and others, I step up with @louise_riis to make some prognostications in two pieces @diisdk.

A thread 👇[1/8]
The basic challenge of #COVID19 and #peacekeeping is that (i) the #pandemic may actually increase demand for @UN peacemaking, etc.; but (ii) reduce the available resources, @louise_riis and I argue in our first @diisdk piece [2/8]. diis.dk/publikationer/…
In simple terms, #COVID19 could reverse hard-won @UNPeacekeeping/@UNDPPA work in some fragile states, and weaken others, but @UN members will want to save $$$ [3/8]
Read 8 tweets
22 Apr 20
It's happening! Russian media report that P5 leaders will hold a video summit on #COVID19 this Friday. A few notes on why this makes me unreasonably excited [1/5]
In the short term, a P5 "virtual summit" is (hopefully) a signal that the #SecurityCouncil will get behind a @franceonu's push for a resolution backing @antonioguterres #GlobalCeasefire appeal, albeit with caveats [2/5]. crisisgroup.org/global/global-…
I am not sure that a #UNSC resolution on #COVID19 will fully restore the SC's credibility after weeks of P5 bickering over how to react to the #pandemic and #globalceasefire, but it's probably still better than nothing. [3/5] foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/17/tru…
Read 5 tweets

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