... as I noted @CFR_CPA in December, @OSCE_SMM is also (for good or ill) a model for the sort of peace operations that are possible in conflicts involving major powers. [2/4] cfr.org/report/major-p…
But @OSCE_SMM was a product of the conflict dynamics in #Ukraine in 2014, when Russia still wanted some cover. An all-out, explicit #Russian intervention would surely make the mission -- at least in its current form -- unsustainable. And what could realistically replace it? [4/4]
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India is first non-NATO country to speak on #Ukraine in #UNSC tonight. Lots of talk about the need for diplomacy, de-escalation, etc. But no reference to Ukraine's sovereignty or condemnation of Russia.
Brazil expresses "extreme concern" about Ukraine in #UNSC, and calls for diplomacy for peace. Does raise sovereign equality of states and territorial integrity.
Avoids using the word "Russia".
Mexico (3rd non-NATO speaker on Ukraine in UNSC) does call out Russia -- a little more gingerly than NATO members but by name -- and talks about Ukrainian sovereignty. Notably firmer than India and Brazil, although also pivoting to diplomacy and dialogue.
There have been snarky responses to @columlynch's piece accusing anyone who thinks @UN can help #Ukraine are "clowns" etc.
But as I said "Nobody actually thinks that the Council will have a significant substantive role in negotiating a conclusion to a new war in Ukraine." [2/12]
.@USUN, @RussiaUN and other Council members will use the #UNSC to try to shape political narrative around #Ukraine.
For example, Russia recently held an informal SC meeting on threats to minorities in the #Baltics and #Ukraine.
But if @PoliticoRyan is right and Angela Merkel will play a leading role in "Our Common Agenda" follow-up, it is going to be hard to deny that the EU and its vision of multilateralism are pretty central to the project. [2/5] politico.com/newsletters/gl…
Fascinating 🧵 by @heatherwilly on the P5's joint paper on strategic nuclear domain, which highlights the importance of crisis prevention/communication mechanisms.
This ties in with questions I have about the potential for P5 dialogues on non-nuclear conflict management. [1/5]
Such P5 work (deliberately at a distance from the fetid day-to-day diplomacy of the #UNSC) could pave the way for the P5 summit that @franceonu has been pursuing for the last 2 years. [3/5] news.un.org/en/story/2021/…