Thread by @alphaspotcap

What led to the War between #Ukraine & #Russia?

Here’s all you need to know about the war, the background, the current scenario, what it means for the world economy & India!

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A detailed thread 🧵👇🏻
#RussiaUkraineConflict #WWIII

(1/19)

Ukraine officially declared itself an independent country in 1991 as the Soviet Union collapsed. Since then, the country has been forming closer ties with the European Union and with NATO.

Russia sees these ties as an economic & strategic threat to its own security.

(2/19)

What is NATO?

Nato - the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation - is a military alliance formed in 1949 by 12 countries, including the US, Canada, the UK and France.

Its aim was originally to counter the threat of post-war Russian expansion in Europe.

(3/19)

What is Russia's current issue with Nato and Ukraine?

Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it is a "partner country". This means there is an understanding that Ukraine may be allowed to join the alliance sometime in the future.

Russia doesn’t wants this to happen.

(4/19)

However, the US & its allies are refusing to bar Ukraine from NATO, saying that as a sovereign nation it should be free to decide on its own security alliances.

Kremlin sees it as Russia's backyard & Vladimir Putin has written that Ukrainians & Russians are "one people"

(5/19)

What else is Russia concerned about?

Putin claims Western powers are using the alliance to encroach on Russia. He wants Nato to cease its military activities in eastern Europe.

He has argued the US broke a pact it made in 1990 that Nato would not expand eastwards.

(6/19)

In 2014, Russia invaded and subsequently annexed the Crimean Peninsula and began backing pro-Russian separatists in parts of eastern Ukraine that want to separate from the country.

This has led to severe armed conflict in eastern Ukraine.

(7/19)

Since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, the conflict has left 3,000 people dead, displaced 850,000 Ukrainians from their homes, and placed 3 million people in need of humanitarian aid.

The conflict has the potential to be the largest military action in Europe since WWII.

(8/19)

NATOs commitment to Ukraine:

1. USA sent 3000 troops to Poland and Romania

2. It also allowed other Nato countries to supply US-made weapons to Ukraine.

3. The UK has supplied Ukraine with 2,000 short-range anti-tank missiles

(9/19)

4. Denmark, Spain, France and the Netherlands, have also sent fighter jets and warships to eastern Europe & the eastern Mediterranean.

5. UK has sent more RAF jets to southern Europe & a Royal Navy vessel to patrol the eastern Mediterranean alongside other Nato warships.

(10/19)

Affect on the Macro Global Economy?

1. Countries that depend on the region’s rich supply of energy, wheat, nickel and other staples could feel the pain of price spikes.

2. Russia is a key supplier of oil gas & raw materials that keep the world’s factories running.

(11/19)

3. Europe gets nearly 40 % of its natural gas & 25 % of its oil from Russia, & is likely to be walloped with spikes in heating & gas bills.

4. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, & together with Ukraine, accounts for nearly a 25% of total global exports

(12/19)

5. Ukraine actually sends more than 40 % of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East or Africa, where there are worries that further food shortages and price increases could stoke social unrest.

6. Brent Crude already crossed $100/barrel, first time since 2014

(13/19)

7. Possible shortages of essential metals like palladium, aluminium & nickel, creating disruption to global supply chains already suffering from the pandemic.

8. Palladium is also used to make mobile phones.

9. Nickel is used to make steel & electric car batteries.

(14/19)

10. Russia and China recently negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline.

11. The crisis is also contributing to a reassessment of the global economy’s structure and concerns about self-sufficiency.

(15/19)

What this war means for India?

1. India is Ukraine’s largest export destination in the Asia-Pacific and the fifth largest overall.

2. Ukraine is India’s major exporter of sunflower oil, followed by inorganic chemicals, iron and steel, plastics, chemicals among others.

(16/19)

3. India is the third-largest exporter of pharmaceutical products to Ukraine, after Germany and France, in value terms.

4. A number of Indian companies like Ranbaxy, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Group have their representative offices in Ukraine.

(17/19)

5. The biggest macro headwind for India is a rally in crude prices. The inflationary consequence of this will force the RBI to abandon its dovish monetary stance. Crude oil has surged to $100 per barrel, while gold has crossed the $1,900 mark amid risk aversion.

(18/19)

India’s Official Stance-

Voicing "deep concern" over the escalation of tension, India has told the UN Security Council that the immediate priority is de-escalation of tensions, taking into account the "legitimate" security interests of all countries.

(19/19)

Any more escalation of this war, could be devastating for the world due to strong reliance on each other for supply of almost everything.

@caniravkaria @Jitendra_stock @Arunstockguru @DhanValue @KirtanShahCFP

What do think will be the affect of this war?