Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: Operations for the past 24 hours have centered on an attempt by Russian forces to seize Kyiv. So far only VDV and special forces troops have been engaged in urban warfare in the capital. #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaConflict

2/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Expect the Russians to make a major push from the northeast to bring considerable armored and artillery support for a large-scale urban assault to capture Kyiv over the next few days.

3/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. If the Russians can avoid additional logistical delays, anticipate them to bypass Ukrainian fixed defenses to place enormous pressure on the Ukrainian military to withdraw from Kyiv.

4/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. The 1st GTA is positioning to conduct a bypass and breakout to the east of Kharkiv with the intent of pressing hard for Dnipro to encircle Ukrainian forces on the LOC.

5/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: The southern theater assessment is detailed in this chart. The lightly defended southern region has facilitated major gains for the Russians. This has opened a range of options for Russian forces to shore up setbacks in other theaters.

6/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: There have been many interesting developments these past 24 hours. Primary among them is that Russian Aerospace Forces have yet to truly gain air superiority or ground the Ukrainian Air Force. Ukraine maintains IAD capability as well.

7/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: It is also becoming apparent that Russian operations in general have been poorly planned, coordinated, and executed. The catastrophic force entry operations and logistical dilemmas have slowed operational momentum.

8/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: However, Russia has yet to fully commit their allocated forces to the fight. As pressure mounts to make substantive gains, expect Russian forces to intensify indiscriminate strike-fires from Aerospace and indirect platforms.

9/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: The scale of the humanitarian crisis this war is generating is just beginning to be felt. An estimated 120,000 Ukrainians have already been displaced. Estimated anticipate that number to potential reach into the millions.

10/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 3: Casualty figures remain in wild fluctuation. There are too many conflicting and contradictory reports to reliably provide casualty estimates at present.

11/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis will begin in the coming days.