Thread by @JominiW

1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 8: As the second week of the war in Ukraine begins it looks as fire the Russians are slowly learning from their opening mistakes and misjudgments. The question remains if they can learn fast enough. #UkraineRussianWar #Ukraine #UkraineUnderAttack

2/ Small yet important gains were made by both Russia and Ukraine today. What follows is a brief synopsis of today’s events and activities in the Ukrainian Theater of War. A general analysis of Russian and Ukrainian operational performance will soon follow.

3/ Kyiv AO assessment is detailed in this chart. Important Ukrainian victories occurred today in northwest Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have been able to retake most of the northwest suburbs and blunt Russian attempts to open new axes of advance to the west.

4/ As impressive as these victories are, the Ukrainians will need to make several more to reverse the momentum of the Russian invasion, which is still on Putin’s side despite setbacks. Ukraine access to foreign lethal aid makes this a possibility.

https://twitter.com/DI_Ukraine/status/1499443606314270720?s=20&t=mrhvhWYXeSZ5MZB4wX8sxw

5/ Northeast AO assessment is detailed in this chart. The Russians continue to assume a great deal of risk in bypassing Ukrainian defensive pockets in the Chernihiv & Sumy Oblasts. These pockets of resistance require many troops to cover them.

6/ There are signs that the Russians are getting better at conducting regimental-sized operations, yet these remain disjointed and not properly supported. Until Russian forces can bring their considerable advantages in large-scale forces to bear Ukraine will be able to resist.

7/ Kharkiv and Donbas AO assessments are detailed in this chart. The Russians have made an important gain today in capturing the city of Svatove, enabling a link-up of the Kharkiv & Donbas AOs. This is a dangerous set bank for Ukrainian forces in the east.

8/ The commanders of the Russian West and South OSKs (military districts) previously served in Syria and played key roles in the siege of Aleppo. It is clear they are employing the same approach to the assaults on Mariupol and Kharkiv.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1499236194248544266?s=20&t=mrhvhWYXeSZ5MZB4wX8sxw

9/ The Southern Theater assessment is detailed in this chart. As of this post Enerhodar has fallen under Russian control. This is a worrying setback for Ukraine, expect attempts to retake the city and its power plant. Ukraine cannot afford to lose a fifth of electrical power.

10/ Aerospace Operation Assessment. Russian forces appear to be employing and coordinating air-ground integration better. However, the Ukrainian air defense network remains operational, and the UKAF can conduct sorties to support its troops.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1499405259751501825?s=20&t=mrhvhWYXeSZ5MZB4wX8sxw

11/ Russian Overall Assessment. A topic I will discuss in my first analysis is the apparent, and steady, degradation of Russian operational art. The Russians have been a leader in the development of military theory for the past 100 years. Failures of the last week are telling.

12/ The atrophy of this core competency of the Russian General Staff is curious to say the least. Why this has happened, and what it means for a shift to a more traditional approach of indiscriminate attacks can tell us a lot of how well Ukraine will be able to resist.

13/ Ukrainian Overall Assessment. The Ukrainian military is resourceful and imaginative. The intellectual rigor of its General Staff and field commanders will continue to be the linchpin of Ukraine’s survival.

https://twitter.com/DrNeilPender/status/1497619907751645188?s=20&t=F8Cw0XU97PlI70VsU-t4tA

14/ These updates have been aggregated from various OSINT sources, official Ukrainian government statements, media reports (i.e., AP News, Reuters), and American think tank reports. Daily reports will continue, major weekly assessments / analysis forthcoming.

15/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.