2/28 Texas C19 Weekly Update

THREAD

* Weekly check-in to make sure Covid is trending in the right direction & to raise the flag if its not
* Let's take a look!

1/n
.
2/28 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/18:

* Positivity rate @ 7.24% down 5 points from LW
* Testing now at pre-Omicron levels ~80K/day
* More cases than positive tests for a while now
#backlog

2/n
2/28 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* 3K per day, down from 5.5K LW
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week for 30 straight days
* Down 94.2% from peak 6 weeks ago
* How long will it go? Likely a ways

3/n
.
2/28 - Hospitalizations

* Covid Admissions and Hospital Census declines just now starting to slow, but still -30%
* Admits basically down to pre-Omicron wave levels
* Covid % of total beds down to 6%
* General Census likely continues to fall over the next week

4/n
.
2/28 Severe Hospitalizations

* Both the ICU and Vent waves are totally over. They are both back down to pre-Omicron levels
* The only question now is will they continue to fall & approach historic lows we saw in May and June 2021
* Nothing compared to 2020 Winter waves

5/n
.
2/28 - Conclusion

The only interesting thing to watch in the next couple of weeks will be to see if the numbers continue to crash or if they flatten out.

Short term looks like there is plenty of decline left. We shall see.

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More from @therealarod1984

Feb 28
2/28 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

THREAD

* A short Omicron induced lull in January & early February is over
* President's Day brought travel back to Holiday season levels
* @Hold2LLC @pilotshive, others telling me they think the airline Mask Mandate goes away soon???

1/n
@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 2

Back to near 2 million passengers in the 7 Day moving average (7DMA), which we've only seen at 3 other times during C19: Summer 2021, Thanksgiving 2021, and Christmas 2021.

2 years ago, 7DMA was running a little north of 2.2 Million

2/n Image
@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 3

Traffic rapidly back up to near 90% of 2020 which has only been seen during Thanksgiving 2021. Omicron dropped the YoY to between 70-75%, but airline travel has become more and more resilient to Covid variants over the past 12 months.

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 26
2/25 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave

* Hospitalizations approaching traditional C19 floors, interesting to see if they crash below that
* Jan 28 was fatality peak, CFR still below flu

1/n
2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/24, Cases 7DMA falling through 4K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA below 5K and still collapsing
* Rapidly approaching traditional Covid floor of 2K cases and 3K hospitalization census

2/n Image
2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* ICU & Vent peaks are basically over
* Both nearing traditional floors of 1K & 550
* Will see if they continue to fall through those and approach new lows seen briefly last spring

3/n Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21
2/20 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - can confidently project Jan 28 as the fatality peak for this wave

1/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/19, Cases 7DMA falling through 6K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA also into the 6K range and still falling fast
* While 2020 Winter wave was 5 months long from end to end, 2021 Winter will be less than 3

2/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Peaks for this wave were 95% of previous Census record, 73% of ICU, and 52% of Vents
* Not only that, but the waves were shorter in length. Aggregates should be even less

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
2/19 Texas C19 Update - Exit Stage Left

THREAD

* Probably one mid week report left, and then I'll go to once a week to keep my eyes on things
* Everything still collapsing
* Let's take a look!

1/n
.
2/19 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/9:

* Positivity rate down to 13.67%, and from here the decline starts to slow
* An interesting bump in testing occurred 2/10-2/14, but its falling again

2/n
2/19 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 6.6K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 21 straight days
* Cases down 87% from peak

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now

1/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...

2/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 16
2/15 Texas C19 Update - Omicron go Night Night...

THREAD

* Cases running north of 100% of positive tests, meaning we are seeing a lot of catch up and backlog being reported
* Despite this, Case 7DMA now below 9K
* Hospitalizations, including ICU/Vents continue freefall

1/n
.
2/15 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/5:

* Pos rate 7DMA down to 18.78% & declining a point a day
* More cases being reported than there are positive tests, starting 2/3 & next several days

2/n
2/15 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 8.7K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 17 straight days
* The decline is slowing because reporting per 2/n and there is little room to fall now.

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets

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