2/25 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave

* Hospitalizations approaching traditional C19 floors, interesting to see if they crash below that
* Jan 28 was fatality peak, CFR still below flu

1/n
2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/24, Cases 7DMA falling through 4K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA below 5K and still collapsing
* Rapidly approaching traditional Covid floor of 2K cases and 3K hospitalization census

2/n Image
2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* ICU & Vent peaks are basically over
* Both nearing traditional floors of 1K & 550
* Will see if they continue to fall through those and approach new lows seen briefly last spring

3/n Image
2/25 TX Severe - Pg 4

* Jan 21-Feb 3 = fatality projections to dates already 80-95% reported
* Feb 4 on = TBD
* Fatality peak was Jan 28 with 99% certainty. Final peak number still TBD but below 275
* Going to be significantly less fatalities in this wave than previous

4/n
. Image
2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 5

* Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is the rate of cases sent to the State DSHS vs Fatalities attributed to C19
* CFR differs from Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) which estimates all infection - asymptomatic, mildly symptomatic, home tests, etc

5/n Image
2/25 TX Severe outcomes - Page 6

* CFR on a date in this chart is determined by dividing the subsequent 7 days 7DMA of fatalities over the previous 7 days 7DMA of cases
* CFR line here is through Jan 28 & very accurate
* CFR is projected through fatality peak now

6/n Image
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 7

* CFR @ still running at 0.66% through fatality peak
* Will continue to slowly creep back up as Case number decline but how far up is TBD
* Just under 1.00% CFR is seasonal flu territory. Omicron has been < 1% since before Christmas

7/n Image
2/20 TX Severe Conclusion

2 more of these in the next 10 days to get January actuals for the Endemic Omicron wave.

With only nothing-burger Omicron B2 as the "next" variant & other political fiascos taking center stage, along with Mid-Terms, is Covid finally over? TBD!

8/end

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More from @therealarod1984

Feb 28
2/28 Texas C19 Weekly Update

THREAD

* Weekly check-in to make sure Covid is trending in the right direction & to raise the flag if its not
* Let's take a look!

1/n
.
2/28 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/18:

* Positivity rate @ 7.24% down 5 points from LW
* Testing now at pre-Omicron levels ~80K/day
* More cases than positive tests for a while now
#backlog

2/n ImageImageImageImage
2/28 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* 3K per day, down from 5.5K LW
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week for 30 straight days
* Down 94.2% from peak 6 weeks ago
* How long will it go? Likely a ways

3/n
. ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Feb 28
2/28 Domestic Airline Travel Update:

THREAD

* A short Omicron induced lull in January & early February is over
* President's Day brought travel back to Holiday season levels
* @Hold2LLC @pilotshive, others telling me they think the airline Mask Mandate goes away soon???

1/n
@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 2

Back to near 2 million passengers in the 7 Day moving average (7DMA), which we've only seen at 3 other times during C19: Summer 2021, Thanksgiving 2021, and Christmas 2021.

2 years ago, 7DMA was running a little north of 2.2 Million

2/n Image
@Hold2LLC @pilotshive Airline numbers Page 3

Traffic rapidly back up to near 90% of 2020 which has only been seen during Thanksgiving 2021. Omicron dropped the YoY to between 70-75%, but airline travel has become more and more resilient to Covid variants over the past 12 months.

3/n Image
Read 6 tweets
Feb 21
2/20 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - can confidently project Jan 28 as the fatality peak for this wave

1/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/19, Cases 7DMA falling through 6K per day
* Hospitalization Census 7DMA also into the 6K range and still falling fast
* While 2020 Winter wave was 5 months long from end to end, 2021 Winter will be less than 3

2/n
2/20 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* Peaks for this wave were 95% of previous Census record, 73% of ICU, and 52% of Vents
* Not only that, but the waves were shorter in length. Aggregates should be even less

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 19
2/19 Texas C19 Update - Exit Stage Left

THREAD

* Probably one mid week report left, and then I'll go to once a week to keep my eyes on things
* Everything still collapsing
* Let's take a look!

1/n
.
2/19 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/9:

* Positivity rate down to 13.67%, and from here the decline starts to slow
* An interesting bump in testing occurred 2/10-2/14, but its falling again

2/n
2/19 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 6.6K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 21 straight days
* Cases down 87% from peak

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets
Feb 16
2/16 - Texas C19 Wave Severity Analysis

THREAD:

Analysis of severe hospitalizations and outcomes for the Winter 2021 Omicron wave. Updates for:

* Hospital Census
* ICU
* Vents
* Fatalities & CFR - projecting into hospitalization peak now

1/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 2

* Numbers through 2/15, Cases falling through 8K per day
* Hospitalization Census into the 7K range and falling fast
* Crazy high case peak, while hospitalizations were less than previous waves...

2/n
2/16 TX Severe outcomes - Page 3

Now just the hospitalization metrics on a two axis chart:

* All the hospitalization metrics in freefall
* Notice again how much smaller this ICU/vent peak is than previous Covid waves
* Fatalities are actual thru 1/11, projected thru 1/25

3/n
Read 8 tweets
Feb 16
2/15 Texas C19 Update - Omicron go Night Night...

THREAD

* Cases running north of 100% of positive tests, meaning we are seeing a lot of catch up and backlog being reported
* Despite this, Case 7DMA now below 9K
* Hospitalizations, including ICU/Vents continue freefall

1/n
.
2/15 -Test reporting is by date of specimen collection, you have to wait ~10 days for a date to be ~90-95% in.

As of 2/5:

* Pos rate 7DMA down to 18.78% & declining a point a day
* More cases being reported than there are positive tests, starting 2/3 & next several days

2/n
2/15 - Cases are simply reported as they are received by the counties.

Case 7DMA
* now down to 8.7K
* has been down 1/3rd to 1/2 from the previous week (WoW) for 17 straight days
* The decline is slowing because reporting per 2/n and there is little room to fall now.

3/n
.
Read 6 tweets

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