1/ Nuclear blackmail failing? Russia's nuclear weapons influence Western thinking on intervention. Putin's nuclear threats increase nuclear risks. But Russia's nuclear signalling so far appears to not have changed Western policy. Short thread on nuclear coercion & Ukraine:
https://twitter.com/harries_matthew/status/1498270245626298372
2/ Two explicit nuclear threats in first 4 days of war: In Feb. 24 declaration of war speech Putin warned those "who may be tempted to interfere in developments from outside" that "consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history." is.gd/hDIKCm
3/ No detectable policy changes in West, at least none that Putin might have hoped for. Virtual @NATO summit does not explicitly mention nukes, describes its own measures as "non-escalatory". If anything, closing of ranks in light of wild nuclear threats. is.gd/rY6C8m
4/ Another spotlight: Three days later, German government announces further sanctions, additional military assistance to Ukraine, similiar responses by other NATO members. is.gd/0UVgtB
5/ Putin raises nuclear stakes again, threats now more specific: Citing “aggressive statements” by NATO and financial sanctions, Russian President on Feb. 27 raises alert level of nuclear forces. is.gd/DWYejL
6/ Again, no discernible impact on discourse or policy of international community. To the contrary: Turkey - NATO state arguably most closely involved with Russia - next day closes Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits. navalnews.com/?p=30885
7/ It may be too early to tell. But these anecdotes suggest that Russian attempts at nuclear coercion are not working, at least so far. If anything, more resolve by int'l community to isolate irresponsible Russian leadership. is.gd/uFAuJ5
8/ Outcome consistent with arguments by @mcfuhrmann, Todd Sechser, et al. that effectiveness of nuclear blackmail and brinkmanship is highly overrated.
https://twitter.com/mcfuhrmann/status/821411880396673024?s=20&t=ll19Rmm1jMivDRB65LYGPA
9/ Nuclear threats in crises often not credible, difficult to read and implausible if aggressor has conventional edge. However, we must be concerned that Putin raises the stakes further, if he realizes that previous threats failed to have desired impact. is.gd/DeGPYu
10/10 Bottom-line: Nukes are part of problem, not solution. Internat'l community shld continue to call out irresponsible Russian nuclear policies, resist temptation to climb up escalatory ladder, argue nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. is.gd/AkHjSY
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