Thread by @21Fulcrum

A sincere, no BS, friendly message (and strategy) to all #StarmerOut folks.

It's a long 🧵but please read.

#KeirStarmer #Starmer #Labour #labourdoorstep #LabourParty #ProgressiveAlliance #SocialistSunday #socialism #Progressives #progressive #FBPE #FBPA
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Firstly, there's no disagreement between us. Starmer has proven one of the most ingenuine politicians in our history. He has repeatedly rowed back on his leadership pledges & sentiments and proven untrustworthy in his words and actions as leader.
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He has been a babe in the woods. Policy illiterate and not particularly interested in ideas. Electorally inept, taking the hand of his elders when he's lost and then caught in the headlights when the strategy handed to him doesn't work.
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He's systematically done the opposite of everything necessary to win an election. Driving out 100s of 1000s of members & trade unionists, losing their fees & canvassing. Taking the party to the edge of bankruptcy. Refusing to draw any clear blue water with the government.
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He's handed the Tories election aces. For example, bankrupting the party will without doubt be an effective attack ad about Labour's inability to manage the economy. Obvious things like that show he's just not good at the job.
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Covid will forever be a mark of the deepest possible shame. Thousands of people were dying unnecessarily due to political choices & he basically moonlighted as the government 's spokesperson. He gave media interviews to actively call for nothing.
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On some policy areas, sure he may have values, but he doesn't really believe in anything powerfully and certainly doesn't have the policy knowledge to argue for anything or the political skill to achieve it.
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Look at when the government relied on Labour to get it's covid restrictions through. Labour backed it and thought a soundbyte about "putting the country first" was enough. It didn't even occur to use that leverage to score greater support for self-isolating etc.
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Look at the situation with Corbyn & the whip. Regardless of anybody's view on that, that will become an election issue that will distract media, canvassing & resources from Labour's effort. Unnecessarily backing yourself into a corner in such a way is political ineptitude.
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Justice is an example of being ignorant, tone deaf & petrified of upsetting the status quo. He ignores data, evidence & common sense in order to posture to right-wing media. Like drug reform or proposing more police on the street in response to police violence.
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On defence he again postures with short-sighted escalatory messages, like on NFZs over Ukraine.
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He had repeatedly whipped Labour to either vote in favour of or abstain on thoroughly disgusting legislation. Cracking down on human rights, visa checks on refugees.

All because he's scared. Too scared to be a leader, to oppose, to move the dial.
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This consistent backing of Conservative ideology moves Labour further from power. Not only by shifting the Overton window but by driving away your reliable core vote to chase an unreliable new vote & by feeding idea that "they're all the same" reducing turnout.
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And we've seen evidence of this time and again. Hartlepool lost. Chesham & Amersham deposit lost. Batley & Spen, clung on by 300 votes, would've lost if Greens had stood. 100s of council seats lost. 0 substantive gains. In two years. Already damage control briefing for May.
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Every time there's an issue Labour should capitalise on or the government's on the ropes, he not only runs away from an open goal because "now's not the time" but also launches yet another factional attack on his own members, bringing attention back to "Labour's civil war."
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Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Over and over and over again.
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Comparing to campaigns Labour need to emulate, they've chosen the exact opposite of an e.g. Biden strategy. I.e. be genuinely inclusive of whole party & respectful, collaborate on policy, win their funding & canvassing, develop clear comms on meaningful issues...
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We expanded on this a while back here:21fulcrum.wordpress.com/2021/03/29/lab…

Labour looks more like 2016 Clinton - willfully divided party, establishment, out of touch, looking down on many voters, no clear cut through or blue water on policy. Defenders of the status quo. No reason to vote.18/

Disclaimer.
We don't much care about labels or traditional groupings. We don't much care about party. We really don't care about factions.

The annoying thing to us is the a) policy ignorance & b) the political incompetence of Starmer & those around him.
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It's annoying because the only thing that does actually matter to us is the millions of people, in the UK & beyond, who will be affected. The people desperately crying out for change. The urgency of this moment.
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And let's be absolutely clear, before anyone calls us Tory enablers.

We want Labour to win the next election. We want a Labour government. No doubt or discussion there.

That's why we're so frustrated. And why we're so determined to use that frustration strategically.
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So here are the facts:

1. We need to #GTTO.
2. We need to do that more urgently than ever. Considering the climate crisis and the dozens more crises affecting people every day.
3. The only viable alternative is Labour. There is no other choice under our political system.
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4. We need to replace the Tories with Labour.
5. That doesn't mean we aren't genuinely terrified about a Starmer PM - on justice, social policy, defence, economy. The ignorance, ineptitude & blind following of the grownups may be dangerous in power.
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6. Therefore, there are no good choices but we have to make one anyway. That's the reality. It's sh*t but it's true. So deal with it and strategise.
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7. Labour need 124 seats for a majority of 1 (more than 1997). They need a 12% swing. They were up 3-8% with the government in chaos. Tories can lose 40 & still win. It is virtually unimaginable that Labour win alone.
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This puts things in a perfect place. If a serious strategy is used.
Exchanging parties without system change is failure.
The strategy is to hold your nose one last time and then never again. To get a Labour-led minority government that's forced to change the system.
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The only two outcomes we have in front of us is a Tory government or a Labour government. We must remove the Tories from power while making Labour dependent on support from both smaller parties & its own left wing.
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How do we do this?
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1. If you want to stay in Labour & fight to change it, cool. If you want to leave it, cool. Both are totally fine choices, but whichever you choose you end up with the same strategy to actually achieve your goal.
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2. If you're willing to still give £3 a month (or more) & your time, canvassing, energy, ideas, passion to a political cause then support non-partisan organisations working for a #ProgressiveAlliance. No reason this couldn't be alongside other activism for a party / cause.
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3. Support activism within Labour. Things like whips & rule changes are probably dead, let's be honest there. But there is still huge & realistic hope for issue-based policy.
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Won't Starmer just ignore this even if it passes? Sure. But that's why we must focus on hegemonising some crucial items: PR & GND. Followed by policies to improve quality of life. Even better if you can get cross-factional support (which does exist on some issues!)
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PR & GND are paramount for a number of reasons. GND is obviously extremely urgent. PR will redefine our politics. PR is the key to never dealing with this crap again: to voting for someone you truly support, make your new party actually viable, give Left ideas a real shot.
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They would also close the gap between Labour & other parties in a good way. Make that post-election Confidence & Supply Agreement happen. You might not be hot on the LDs / Greens or whoever but the fact is your aims overlap right now.
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4. When it comes to it, vote tactically. Even if you don't like it - think long-term. If you're in an area where Labour stand the best chance of beating Tories - vote Labour, even if you have to hold your nose. Same goes for voting LD / Green / etc.
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Several new parties have emerged and we have nothing against them at all, in fact we totally & genuinely support of them. We're trying to support them strategically - under FPTP they don't stand a chance, under PR they could have real power by the next election.
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Remember, when it comes to tactical voting we need to get the maths right to create a Labour-led minority. That means Labour, LDs & Green (at least) must all gain significant numbers off Tories.
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5. After the election is also crucial. Members of all parties must mobilise fast & put enormous pressure on Labour & other parties to agree a C&S deal that's based on PR & a radical GND.
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A minority government dependent on other parties & Labour Left MPs would also rein in the scarier parts of Starmer's Labour. On foreign policy, defence, justice etc. Starmer would need LDs, Greens, other parties & his own Left on board.
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You might distrust LDs after 2010. That's justified. But this isn't 2010. The landscape has changed. The LDs have learnt from being burned bad. And besides, our current system make this strategy necessary in the short-term. There's a lack of options until we get PR.
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Most importantly, once PR is delivered we never need to go through this again. It's not a silver bullet - our politics needs much wider democratisation. But it means every party can have a real chance. Voters can vote without compromise. & Ideas / policies can breakthrough.
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N.b. we've set out other democratisation policies here: 21fulcrum.wordpress.com/take-back-cont…
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Within a decade, if we're strategic, everything can be different. Things won't be perfect but these same old problems will be settled. And the new system will be more amenable to wider change.
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Think of the multiplier effect. As PR boosts Left parties there can be reform to our media, our political structures, our economic system, people empowerment etc. No matter what issue you're passionate about, it all traces back to the same short-term strategy.
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We must be strategic. Even if we don't like it, even if it seems unrealistic, we simply have no other choice.
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We expand on some of this here (& there are many more great publications out there!): 21fulcrum.wordpress.com/2022/01/10/pra…
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21fulcrum.wordpress.com/dear-former-la…

Dear Former Labour Supporters: