Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 9 8 tweets 2 min read
Fine— I’ll say it aloud—Ukraine had a 60% positivity for #COVID19 in mid February, and just before the invasion on Feb. 24, only 35% of Ukrainians were vaccinated. It just makes me sad & worried, that’s all.

📍“War is an infectious disease’s best friend”. time.com/6153254/ukrain…
2) Ukraine’s relatively low vaccination rate could have implications for how large additional surges of cases, both in the country and in the region become as a result of the war.
3) Like many other countries, Ukraine experienced a surge in cases due to the Omicron variant in November and another peak in the first week of February—most likely due to its low level of vaccination.
4) “It challenges every public health program you can have. It limits the medical care available, and often fosters transmission when so many people are crowded into bomb shelter locations & on trains. This is going to be the perfect storm of one serious challenge after another.”
5) World Health Organization researchers found that 65% of major infectious disease outbreaks occurring in the 1990s were among refugee populations or in conflict zones. conflictandhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.11…
6)“It turns out when you are under stress, your immune system does not work as well. You are not eating as well, and you cannot fight disease as well,” he says.
7) “And in times of conflict, you move around a lot, and end up in bomb shelters or basements or on trucks that are way more crowded than normal and have bad air circulation. I don’t think people fully understand how war is like the breeding ground of disease.”
8) Don’t hate—- I loved this little Ukrainian girl singing “Let it Go” from Frozen. But the super dense bomb shelter where everyone is living is also very worrisome to me as an epidemiologist. I just worry. But I know 🇺🇦 has a war to survive too.

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More from @DrEricDing

Mar 11
👀Watching—A suddenly 3-straight days of wastewater #SARSCoV2 ⬆️ increase found in Palo Alto & Mountain View (home to Stanford & Google)—similar to late Jan levels. Such signals usually foretells rising #COVID19 cases 1-2 weeks later. #CovidIsNotOver
covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wast… ImageImage
Wastewater is one of the best ways to track early warning signs of coronavirus rise. Here is the best national dashboard from @BiobotAnalytics. Their data is not comprehensive like a census because not all counties & cities participate. (But they should). biobot.io/data/
Good time to remind folks that masks work — and reduce transmission by 72% in schools that require them. Huge study 👇
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
NEW—NIH funded study of 1.1 million students & 160,000 school staff concludes:

💡"Universal masking was associated with a 72% reduction in secondary transmission” versus optional/partial masking.

📍So, #Masks help prevent #COVID19. Protect kids please.
nih.gov/news-events/ne… Image
2) The study included 61 school districts (kindergarten through grade 12) that provided data from July 26, 2021, through Dec. 13, 2021, a period encompassing the Delta surge and preceding the Omicron surge.
3) In total, there were 40,601 primary infections acquired in the community (36,032 among students, 4,569 among staff) and 3,085 secondary infections acquired in school (2,844 among students, 241 among staff).
Read 5 tweets
Mar 11
READING TEA LEAF🍃—In 2020, Putin’s decree specifying if/when 🇷🇺 would use nuclear ☢️ weapons:

📌in response to a conventional attack if “Russia’s existence is threatened”

📌Feb 24th—Putin’s invasion: “for our country, it is a matter of life & death”👀
thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t… Image
This is not random paranoia— this piece is dedicated to just this tricky Putin decree. And the @BulletinAtomic is one of the most prestigious journals in nuclear nonproliferation & nuclear security. Read— thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t…
3) Putin adds: “This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10
CASES SPIKING UP ⬆️52.9% in one week in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿—Clear trend now there is new wave happening, despite 98% with antibodies. Hospitalizations also across 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿. #BA2 subvariant >50% too.

10-Mar—371,662
09-Mar—346k
08-Mar—323k
07-Mar—300k

04-Mar—256k
03-Mar—243,057

HT @JoePajak Image
2) moreover, pediatric hospitalizations in kids 0-5 also up 39% in a week as well.
3) Hospitalizations is up across all regions of England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 too. So this isn’t some isolated thing. What is uniformly increasing across England? #Ba2 prevalence.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 10
Ever wonder why kids don’t get smallpox vaccine anymore? Because we once decided to eradicate it with #vaccines & 100% containment—& fully EXTINGUISHED smallpox off the face of the Earth 🌍. ➡️ We chose to go **ZERO SMALLPOX** because 500,000,000 deaths in 100 years was enough!! Image
2) So, was the smallpox vaccine some magical miracle 100% efficacy for a lifetime efficacy protection? No, it was 95% and for only 3-5 years, with waning after. It had to be used with contact tracing & village lockdowns to eradicate it—a PLUS strategy. health.ny.gov/publications/7…
3) The eradication of smallpox was no small feat. It took 10 full years to extinguish smallpox off the face of the planet. It was led by the legendary DA Henderson of @JohnsHopkinsSPH @CDCgov and @WHO.

His obituary was epic—by the great @HelenBranswell. statnews.com/2016/08/21/d-a…
Read 20 tweets
Mar 9
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 children are being sent to school wearing stickers indicating their blood🩸 type, but do go on about kids wearing a mask.😠

Children’s hospital bombed today, meanwhile… 👇
Bombing kids hospitals and civilians is war crime. Want to know what else is a crime against humanity and public health? COVID policies to allow mass infection!
I’m gonna say bombing a maternity hospital is most a war crime…
Read 5 tweets

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