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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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Mar 10 • 7 tweets • 4 min read
CASES SPIKING UP ⬆️52.9% in one week in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿—Clear trend now there is new wave happening, despite 98% with antibodies. Hospitalizations also across 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿. #BA2 subvariant >50% too.

10-Mar—371,662
09-Mar—346k
08-Mar—323k
07-Mar—300k
…
04-Mar—256k
03-Mar—243,057

HT @JoePajak Image
2) moreover, pediatric hospitalizations in kids 0-5 also up 39% in a week as well.
3) Hospitalizations is up across all regions of England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 too. So this isn’t some isolated thing. What is uniformly increasing across England? #Ba2 prevalence.
4) And yes, #Ba2 is creeping up across the US as well. 11.6% nationwide. But 24% in New England states. 👇
5) Here is what difference one month makes. I don’t want to hear anymore damn excuses that we never saw this coming when cases surge later in the US next month or two.
6) and yes, #BA2 is in Canada 🇨🇦 too—26% in Ontario recently.
7) UK isn’t the only country seeing a surge in cases… several EU countries seeing uptick too. We must be cautious regardless of the reason.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 12
📍NEW—The #BA2 now has a 80-90% growth advantage versus old #Omicron in the US. Expect uptick by April, and cases to surge more in late April / May. Wastewater #SARSCoV2 level from @BiobotAnalytics also shows plateauing nationwide & reversal soon🧵. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @JPWeiland ImageImage
2) We already see wastewater signals in Palo Alto uptick for 3-4 consecutive days now. And this is likely almost all #BA2 by genetic signals found in the wastewater.
3) cases and hospitalizations both surging meanwhile in England where #BA2 is now over 50%.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 12
📬MAIL DELIVERY OUTBREAK—China’s CDC reports an outbreak of #Omicron “likely caused” by an international postal letter. Genetically distinct from other cases, but linked to SE Asia & N America. If true—this is the first outbreak cluster spread such way.🧵
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi… Image
2) Study concludes: “we reported the first local cluster caused by Omicron variant in Beijing and showed this cluster was likely caused by a contaminated internationally mailed document, which has not been reported before.”
3) “Our data emphasized the surveillance and disinfection of imported express cargo in COVID-19”

Aside—I think seasonality here matters. January is dead of winter and Beijing is very cold then.
Read 19 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 11
👀Watching—A suddenly 3-straight days of wastewater #SARSCoV2 ⬆️ increase found in Palo Alto & Mountain View (home to Stanford & Google)—similar to late Jan levels. Such signals usually foretells rising #COVID19 cases 1-2 weeks later. #CovidIsNotOver
covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wast… ImageImage
Wastewater is one of the best ways to track early warning signs of coronavirus rise. Here is the best national dashboard from @BiobotAnalytics. Their data is not comprehensive like a census because not all counties & cities participate. (But they should). biobot.io/data/
Good time to remind folks that masks work — and reduce transmission by 72% in schools that require them. Huge study 👇
Read 9 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 11
NEW—NIH funded study of 1.1 million students & 160,000 school staff concludes:

💡"Universal masking was associated with a 72% reduction in secondary transmission” versus optional/partial masking.

📍So, #Masks help prevent #COVID19. Protect kids please.
nih.gov/news-events/ne… Image
2) The study included 61 school districts (kindergarten through grade 12) that provided data from July 26, 2021, through Dec. 13, 2021, a period encompassing the Delta surge and preceding the Omicron surge.
3) In total, there were 40,601 primary infections acquired in the community (36,032 among students, 4,569 among staff) and 3,085 secondary infections acquired in school (2,844 among students, 241 among staff).
Read 5 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 11
READING TEA LEAF🍃—In 2020, Putin’s decree specifying if/when 🇷🇺 would use nuclear ☢️ weapons:

📌in response to a conventional attack if “Russia’s existence is threatened”

📌Feb 24th—Putin’s invasion: “for our country, it is a matter of life & death”👀
thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t… Image
This is not random paranoia— this piece is dedicated to just this tricky Putin decree. And the @BulletinAtomic is one of the most prestigious journals in nuclear nonproliferation & nuclear security. Read— thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t…
3) Putin adds: “This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty”
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 10
Ever wonder why kids don’t get smallpox vaccine anymore? Because we once decided to eradicate it with #vaccines & 100% containment—& fully EXTINGUISHED smallpox off the face of the Earth 🌍. ➡️ We chose to go **ZERO SMALLPOX** because 500,000,000 deaths in 100 years was enough!!
2) So, was the smallpox vaccine some magical miracle 100% efficacy for a lifetime efficacy protection? No, it was 95% and for only 3-5 years, with waning after. It had to be used with contact tracing & village lockdowns to eradicate it—a PLUS strategy. health.ny.gov/publications/7…
3) The eradication of smallpox was no small feat. It took 10 full years to extinguish smallpox off the face of the planet. It was led by the legendary DA Henderson of @JohnsHopkinsSPH @CDCgov and @WHO.

His obituary was epic—by the great @helenbranswell. statnews.com/2016/08/21/d-a…
Read 23 tweets

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