Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 10 23 tweets 7 min read
Ever wonder why kids don’t get smallpox vaccine anymore? Because we once decided to eradicate it with #vaccines & 100% containment—& fully EXTINGUISHED smallpox off the face of the Earth 🌍. ➡️ We chose to go **ZERO SMALLPOX** because 500,000,000 deaths in 100 years was enough!!
2) So, was the smallpox vaccine some magical miracle 100% efficacy for a lifetime efficacy protection? No, it was 95% and for only 3-5 years, with waning after. It had to be used with contact tracing & village lockdowns to eradicate it—a PLUS strategy. health.ny.gov/publications/7…
3) The eradication of smallpox was no small feat. It took 10 full years to extinguish smallpox off the face of the planet. It was led by the legendary DA Henderson of @JohnsHopkinsSPH @CDCgov and @WHO.

His obituary was epic—by the great @helenbranswell. statnews.com/2016/08/21/d-a…
4) People said eradication was impossible. But “[Henderson] was a person of strong convictions,” said Foege, who served as director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 1977 to 1983 and who first met Henderson at the CDC in 1962.
5) “I always think that was one of the attributes that provided for leadership because people don’t like to follow someone who’s uncertain about where they’re going. He brought a certain certainty to everything he did.”— you had to if your mission was 100% smallpox eradication.
6) Before taking the lead in the smallpox eradication program, Henderson was the CDC’s director of disease surveillance. His mentor had been Alexander Langmuir, the epidemiologist who founded the CDC’s renowned program to train disease detectives.
7) “I remember with Alex once talking about a subject and he presented his side and I said: ‘But it’s worth looking at the other side,’” Foege recalled. “And he slammed his fist down on his desk and said: ‘There is no other side!’” 👀
8) “Like any war, the one against smallpox involved thousands of foot soldiers — notably outbreak tracers and vaccinators — & more than a few generals. They came from both the United States and Soviet Union, which first called for the disease’s elimination
nytimes.com/2016/08/22/us/…
9) “But, along with Dr. William H. Foege, Dr. Henderson was considered a field marshal whose combination of vision, bluntness, tenacity and political acumen carried the campaign to victory.”
10) Smallpox had been eliminated in much of the West shortly after World War II, but it persisted in Brazil, Africa and South Asia.

In 1966, he was sent to Geneva to run the World Health Organization’s global campaign.
11) “The sense at the W.H.O. was that this was an impossible mission, so they chose a young man who didn’t have a reputation to tarnish,” said Dr. Thomas V. Inglesby @T_Inglesby

(Translation—the wanted a “fall guy” in case it failed. That’s how un-confident WHO once was)
12) “I don’t want to say as cannon fodder, but something like that.”

World Health Organization campaigns to end yellow fever and malaria had both petered out, and the organization adopted the smallpox goal only after the Soviets and the Americans insisted, Dr. Foege said.
13) “D. A. always said they wanted an American to blame,” he added.

He was given little staff or support, but remaining on the C.D.C. payroll gave him independence.

➡️ He charged ahead anyway!!!
14) Dr. Henderson spent much of his time visiting smallpox-stricken countries, some of which were also caught up in civil wars. He filed detailed progress reports and threatened to quit when W.H.O. officials asked him to tone them down, Dr. @T_Inglesby said.
15) When the Soviets shipped weak vaccines, “he went to Moscow and confronted them.” 🔥

The campaign developed a freeze-dried vaccine that could withstand tropical heat and be given either with a compressed air “injection gun” or by putting a drop on a forked needle
16) Dr. Henderson quickly realized that trying to vaccinate vast populations was futile and switched to “ring vaccination.” It was “invented by accident” during a 1967 Nigerian outbreak when he had very little vaccine on hand.
17) “The first night, we asked ourselves what we would do if we were a virus bent on immortality,” he said. They radioed every local missionary asking them to send runners to find out which villages had cases.
18) They sent 80 percent of their vaccine to those villages, using it on the family of each case and all their recent contacts. The last 20 percent went to “anywhere we thought the virus would go next” — which was mostly to market towns where farmers and hunters sold their goods.
19) “It took D. A. about a year to come around to ring vaccination,” Dr. Lane, who worked with Dr. Foege, said. “But once he did, he was an enthusiastic proselytizer.”
20) The smallpox eradication campaign, many experts have noted, succeeded just in time (1977). A few years later, HIV spread across Africa. Because the live smallpox vaccine can grow in an immunocompromised into a huge, rotting, fatal lesion, you couldn’t use SP vaccine+HIV—WHEW!
21) To be clear—there were many involved in the eradication of smallpox besides Henderson and Foege and legions of WHO workers and local community workers. Also @larrybrilliant played a notable role as well in eradication in SE Asia. pandefense.com/larry-brilliant
22) Vaccines have been a miracle that have easily saved over a billion lives. We need to recognize how life saving they are. Some may have small side effects, but please don’t denigrate vaccines with conspiracies. That is unkind to your ancestors who survived because of them.
23) Finally, a shout out to @dawnymock who is the creator of this brilliant smallpox vaccine cartoon above ☝️ up top. dawnymock.com

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More from @DrEricDing

Mar 11
👀Watching—A suddenly 3-straight days of wastewater #SARSCoV2 ⬆️ increase found in Palo Alto & Mountain View (home to Stanford & Google)—similar to late Jan levels. Such signals usually foretells rising #COVID19 cases 1-2 weeks later. #CovidIsNotOver
covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wast… ImageImage
Wastewater is one of the best ways to track early warning signs of coronavirus rise. Here is the best national dashboard from @BiobotAnalytics. Their data is not comprehensive like a census because not all counties & cities participate. (But they should). biobot.io/data/
Good time to remind folks that masks work — and reduce transmission by 72% in schools that require them. Huge study 👇
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
NEW—NIH funded study of 1.1 million students & 160,000 school staff concludes:

💡"Universal masking was associated with a 72% reduction in secondary transmission” versus optional/partial masking.

📍So, #Masks help prevent #COVID19. Protect kids please.
nih.gov/news-events/ne… Image
2) The study included 61 school districts (kindergarten through grade 12) that provided data from July 26, 2021, through Dec. 13, 2021, a period encompassing the Delta surge and preceding the Omicron surge.
3) In total, there were 40,601 primary infections acquired in the community (36,032 among students, 4,569 among staff) and 3,085 secondary infections acquired in school (2,844 among students, 241 among staff).
Read 5 tweets
Mar 11
READING TEA LEAF🍃—In 2020, Putin’s decree specifying if/when 🇷🇺 would use nuclear ☢️ weapons:

📌in response to a conventional attack if “Russia’s existence is threatened”

📌Feb 24th—Putin’s invasion: “for our country, it is a matter of life & death”👀
thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t… Image
This is not random paranoia— this piece is dedicated to just this tricky Putin decree. And the @BulletinAtomic is one of the most prestigious journals in nuclear nonproliferation & nuclear security. Read— thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t…
3) Putin adds: “This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty”
Read 4 tweets
Mar 10
CASES SPIKING UP ⬆️52.9% in one week in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿—Clear trend now there is new wave happening, despite 98% with antibodies. Hospitalizations also across 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿. #BA2 subvariant >50% too.

10-Mar—371,662
09-Mar—346k
08-Mar—323k
07-Mar—300k

04-Mar—256k
03-Mar—243,057

HT @JoePajak Image
2) moreover, pediatric hospitalizations in kids 0-5 also up 39% in a week as well.
3) Hospitalizations is up across all regions of England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 too. So this isn’t some isolated thing. What is uniformly increasing across England? #Ba2 prevalence.
Read 7 tweets
Mar 9
Fine— I’ll say it aloud—Ukraine had a 60% positivity for #COVID19 in mid February, and just before the invasion on Feb. 24, only 35% of Ukrainians were vaccinated. It just makes me sad & worried, that’s all.

📍“War is an infectious disease’s best friend”. time.com/6153254/ukrain…
2) Ukraine’s relatively low vaccination rate could have implications for how large additional surges of cases, both in the country and in the region become as a result of the war.
3) Like many other countries, Ukraine experienced a surge in cases due to the Omicron variant in November and another peak in the first week of February—most likely due to its low level of vaccination.
Read 8 tweets
Mar 9
Ukrainian 🇺🇦 children are being sent to school wearing stickers indicating their blood🩸 type, but do go on about kids wearing a mask.😠

Children’s hospital bombed today, meanwhile… 👇
Bombing kids hospitals and civilians is war crime. Want to know what else is a crime against humanity and public health? COVID policies to allow mass infection!
I’m gonna say bombing a maternity hospital is most a war crime…
Read 5 tweets

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