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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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Mar 11 • 10 tweets • 7 min read
👀Watching—A suddenly 3-straight days of wastewater #SARSCoV2 ⬆️ increase found in Palo Alto & Mountain View (home to Stanford & Google)—similar to late Jan levels. Such signals usually foretells rising #COVID19 cases 1-2 weeks later. #CovidIsNotOver
covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wast…
Wastewater is one of the best ways to track early warning signs of coronavirus rise. Here is the best national dashboard from @BiobotAnalytics. Their data is not comprehensive like a census because not all counties & cities participate. (But they should). biobot.io/data/
Good time to remind folks that masks work — and reduce transmission by 72% in schools that require them. Huge study 👇
Don’t let the US end up like England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 with another huge national spike in cases & hospitalizations! Are you boosted yet? #GetBoosted #vaccinate #MaskUp #ventilate #COVIDisAirborne
5) So which variant? So the data also reveals something else… while Spike and Nucleocapsid mRNA of the #SARSCoV2 increased, it reveals that this strain does not have the “Deletion 143-145” mutation. Normally this is old generic Omicron. So it’s not that… soe-wbe-pilot.wl.r.appspot.com/charts#page=ov…
6) So what do we know about the “Deletion 143-145” mutation? Among Omicron group, it only found in BA1 & BA3, but not in BA2. The fact that the new Palo Alto #SARSCoV2 wastewater is positive for spike but missing the Del 143-145 signature means ➡️ it’s likely #BA2! ⚠️Pretty sure.
7) BA2 notably has higher secondary attack rates than BA1.
8) Nationwide #Ba2 is about 11.6%. But it’s higher than that in western states and in New England states. So it’s definitely plausible that it’s BA2 in Palo Alto California.
9) here is the progression of #BA2 (pink) over exactly one month… see the pattern? BA2 is rising steadily. I predict late April when it’s dominant nationwide, if not earlier.
10) Wastewater is signals are beginning to soon plateau from their previous drop. Need to watch what is ahead as BA2 grows.

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 13
A new #COVID19 class war of HAVES versus HAVE NOTS—

📍Schools for rich kids—HEPA filters, Upper Room UV disinfection, UV in HVAC, unlimited free testing, and N95 masks.

📍Poorer public schools—Often nothing, zero, zilch.

📌Bonus—Richer parents have HEPA filters at home too.
2) Another factor — more wealthier school districts often have more mask mandates / longer duration of mask rules, which rural schools districts are more often dominated by anti mask school board members. And hence, more COVID risk ask well. The difference is stark too 👇
3) meanwhile, cases are soon to surge for sure. We probably have just one month or less before we see increases in a lot of places nationwide. I’d use this time to prepare our schools and community. Are you boosted yet? #GetBoosted School have HEPA filter or UV or Corsi boxes?
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 12
📍NEW—The #BA2 now has a 80-90% growth advantage versus old #Omicron in the US. Expect uptick by April, and cases to surge more in late April / May. Wastewater #SARSCoV2 level from @BiobotAnalytics also shows plateauing nationwide & reversal soon🧵. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @JPWeiland ImageImage
2) We already see wastewater signals in Palo Alto uptick for 3-4 consecutive days now. And this is likely almost all #BA2 by genetic signals found in the wastewater.
3) cases and hospitalizations both surging meanwhile in England where #BA2 is now over 50%.
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 12
📬MAIL DELIVERY OUTBREAK—China’s CDC reports an outbreak of #Omicron “likely caused” by an international postal letter. Genetically distinct from other cases, but linked to SE Asia & N America. If true—this is the first outbreak cluster spread such way.🧵
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi… Image
2) Study concludes: “we reported the first local cluster caused by Omicron variant in Beijing and showed this cluster was likely caused by a contaminated internationally mailed document, which has not been reported before.”
3) “Our data emphasized the surveillance and disinfection of imported express cargo in COVID-19”

Aside—I think seasonality here matters. January is dead of winter and Beijing is very cold then.
Read 19 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 11
NEW—NIH funded study of 1.1 million students & 160,000 school staff concludes:

💡"Universal masking was associated with a 72% reduction in secondary transmission” versus optional/partial masking.

📍So, #Masks help prevent #COVID19. Protect kids please.
nih.gov/news-events/ne…
2) The study included 61 school districts (kindergarten through grade 12) that provided data from July 26, 2021, through Dec. 13, 2021, a period encompassing the Delta surge and preceding the Omicron surge.
3) In total, there were 40,601 primary infections acquired in the community (36,032 among students, 4,569 among staff) and 3,085 secondary infections acquired in school (2,844 among students, 241 among staff).
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 11
READING TEA LEAF🍃—In 2020, Putin’s decree specifying if/when 🇷🇺 would use nuclear ☢️ weapons:

📌in response to a conventional attack if “Russia’s existence is threatened”

📌Feb 24th—Putin’s invasion: “for our country, it is a matter of life & death”👀
thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t…
This is not random paranoia— this piece is dedicated to just this tricky Putin decree. And the @BulletinAtomic is one of the most prestigious journals in nuclear nonproliferation & nuclear security. Read— thebulletin.org/2022/03/read-t…
3) Putin adds: “This is not an exaggeration; this is a fact. It is not only a very real threat to our interests but to the very existence of our state and to its sovereignty”
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 10
CASES SPIKING UP ⬆️52.9% in one week in England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿—Clear trend now there is new wave happening, despite 98% with antibodies. Hospitalizations also across 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿. #BA2 subvariant >50% too.

10-Mar—371,662
09-Mar—346k
08-Mar—323k
07-Mar—300k
…
04-Mar—256k
03-Mar—243,057

HT @JoePajak Image
2) moreover, pediatric hospitalizations in kids 0-5 also up 39% in a week as well.
3) Hospitalizations is up across all regions of England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 too. So this isn’t some isolated thing. What is uniformly increasing across England? #Ba2 prevalence.
Read 7 tweets

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