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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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Mar 12 • 9 tweets • 6 min read
📍NEW—The #BA2 now has a 80-90% growth advantage versus old #Omicron in the US. Expect uptick by April, and cases to surge more in late April / May. Wastewater #SARSCoV2 level from @BiobotAnalytics also shows plateauing nationwide & reversal soon🧵. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @JPWeiland
2) We already see wastewater signals in Palo Alto uptick for 3-4 consecutive days now. And this is likely almost all #BA2 by genetic signals found in the wastewater.
3) cases and hospitalizations both surging meanwhile in England where #BA2 is now over 50%.
4) Globally, the U-turn in cases and uptick has already begun. Pretty certain it’s a new wave of #BA2.
5) BA2 seems to have more infectious properties for whatever reason — it has a higher secondary attack rate among both households and non-households. UK govt data 👇
6) The good news is that BA2 is responsive to BOOSTER shots. But 2 shots not enough… the protection against hospitalization with 2 shots is now in the 70s%… okay but not that good. 90-95% protection with booster is what I consider good. But 2/3 of the US is not boosted.
7) many claim that just because “cases are flat” / dropping but slowing — that there’s nothing to worry about. But that’s deceptive. We know from experience with past waves that an undergrowth of variants will slowly grow over time until cases “criss-cross” & then surge.
8) I don’t know who needs to hear this— but masks in schools kinda sorta maybe REALLY help protect kids and teachers from #COVID19 — 72% lower risk of infection for mandatory school masks versus partial.
9) Follow these things to protect your family:

Boosters (get 3 shots—J&J folks too)
N95 masks
Ditch plexiglass theater
HEPA filters for schools & work
Corsi filter boxes 📦
Upper room UV for large conference rooms
Testing
Isolate cases + 2x testing to exit
Open the window 🪟

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
Let this sink in—about half of elderly age 80+ in China are not fully vaccinated. And those who are are vaccinated with mostly SinoVac or Sinopharm—2 of the weaker protection vaccines. Half unvaccinated is gut punching bad—and bodes badly for the world if 🇨🇳 loses control. Image
2) And of the vaccinations in Hong Kong right now, most in the older generation are SinoVac and Sinopharm (non-mRNA) as well. Compare this to New Zealand or Singapore with very few Sino* vaccines. Image
3) while elderly 80+ are small, they have an outsized in place on total #COVID19 deaths in Hong Kong. The same problem will happen in China if it loses control in its population. Image
Read 8 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
NEW—South Korea 🇰🇷 reports surging ⬆️ #BA2 subvariant now 31% of all cases as of last week. SK now has surpassed Hong Kong’s incidence peak, with hospitalizations & deaths also rising. 45% of all imported cases are #BA2 as well. 🇰🇷 is in trouble soon too. kdca.go.kr/contents.es?mi… ImageImage
2) Yes, deaths in South Korea 🇰🇷 rising too albeit much much lower than Hong Kong.

Figure by @DrWilliamKu Image
3) reason is that South Korea is heavily vaccinated and heavily boosted—among the highest in the world. But that still doesn’t prevent hospitalizations and mortality rise because #Ba2 that efficient in finding unvaccinated and undervaccinated. Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 14
BREAKING—Lockdown just imposed for entire Jilin province, population 24 million. Jilin Province just reported 895 locally transmitted #COVID19 cases, & 131 asymptomatic carriers on Sunday, authorities announced Monday. Mayor of Jilin city has been fired.🧵
xinhuanet.com/english/202203… Image
2) This follows Shenzhen’s urgent lockdown yesterday. Shenzhen is the “Silicon Valley” tech and industrial epicenter of China. This likely has global implications if longer than a few days. All production is ceased during this time.
3) How serious is China about what is happening in Jilin? It has begun building a 6000-bed hospital isolation center… with work crews working 24 hours around the clock— scheduled completion is in 6 days from groundbreaking. Live camera of construction: weibo.com/l/wblive/m/sho… Image
Read 6 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 13
I have a bad feeling again—China is reinstating measures & has fired the mayors of 2 key cities. Thus far, China has shut down an industrial city, urged residents not to leave Beijing and closed down schools in Shanghai due to increase of #COVID19. 👀 thehill.com/policy/healthc…
2) If mainland China 🇨🇳 follows the way of Hong Kong 🇭🇰 — then China will be royally screwed. And the world’s supply chain might completely melt down for a period. HK deaths are surging so high it is approaching NYC in spring 2020–and HK hasn’t peaked yet.
3) Worse, “Mainland 🇨🇳 has already started to divert flights away from Shanghai & began lockdown this week with closures in some of its largest provinces. Vessels have stopped departing from Shanghai as a port.” —DAMN that is serious. This is Shanghai! 👀
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 21 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 13
A new #COVID19 class war of HAVES versus HAVE NOTS—

📍Schools for rich kids—HEPA filters, Upper Room UV disinfection, UV in HVAC, unlimited free testing, and N95 masks.

📍Poorer public schools—Often nothing, zero, zilch.

📌Bonus—Richer parents have HEPA filters at home too.
2) Another factor — more wealthier school districts often have more mask mandates / longer duration of mask rules, which rural schools districts are more often dominated by anti mask school board members. And hence, more COVID risk ask well. The difference is stark too 👇
3) meanwhile, cases are soon to surge for sure. We probably have just one month or less before we see increases in a lot of places nationwide. I’d use this time to prepare our schools and community. Are you boosted yet? #GetBoosted School have HEPA filter or UV or Corsi boxes?
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 12
📬MAIL DELIVERY OUTBREAK—China’s CDC reports an outbreak of #Omicron “likely caused” by an international postal letter. Genetically distinct from other cases, but linked to SE Asia & N America. If true—this is the first outbreak cluster spread such way.🧵
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi…
2) Study concludes: “we reported the first local cluster caused by Omicron variant in Beijing and showed this cluster was likely caused by a contaminated internationally mailed document, which has not been reported before.”
3) “Our data emphasized the surveillance and disinfection of imported express cargo in COVID-19”

Aside—I think seasonality here matters. January is dead of winter and Beijing is very cold then.
Read 19 tweets

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