Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
Mar 12 19 tweets 6 min read
📬MAIL DELIVERY OUTBREAK—China’s CDC reports an outbreak of #Omicron “likely caused” by an international postal letter. Genetically distinct from other cases, but linked to SE Asia & N America. If true—this is the first outbreak cluster spread such way.🧵
weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/doi…
2) Study concludes: “we reported the first local cluster caused by Omicron variant in Beijing and showed this cluster was likely caused by a contaminated internationally mailed document, which has not been reported before.”
3) “Our data emphasized the surveillance and disinfection of imported express cargo in COVID-19”

Aside—I think seasonality here matters. January is dead of winter and Beijing is very cold then.
4) “The field investigation was performed to identify the source of infection. Case A lived and worked in Haidian District, Beijing, without travel history out of Beijing or close contact with local or imported high-risk populations.
5) “Further investigation indicated that the case sent and received international mail occasionally. Notably, an internationally mailed document was received by the case on January 11 (2 days before onset of symptoms), which was delivered from abroad on January 7.
6) “The disinfection was carried out from the outer surface of the packaged document when it arrived in Beijing. A total of 1,054 environmental samples were collected, including 22 swabs for the package received by the case.
7) “The qRT-PCR showed that 12 of 22 samples were positive in the SARS-CoV-2 ORF1ab/N gene test, including 2 samples collected from the outer surface of the package, 2 from the inner package, and the other 8 from contained papers.“ and all 12 Omicron.
8) “Phylogenetic analysis indicated the virus located near the cluster of some strains collected in North American and Southeast Asia in mid-December, which had significant differences with local clusters in China in the same period (Figure 1).
9) “This is the first local cluster caused by Omicron variant in Beijing.” 👀 (which make them even more sure it was mail not community).

“A remarkable finding of this study was the possible source of the infection for this cluster.”
10) “We proposed the infection was induced by the internationally mailed document, mainly based on the following evidence. Field investigations showed no potential exposure of the case except the internationally mailed document, with an onset interval of 2 days.
11) “All identified cases showed epidemiological links with Case A. Environmental surveillance identified SARS-CoV-2 RNA positive samples from the package’s contents, and part of these positive contents were untouched by the case.
12) “More importantly, NGS showed that the genome of the case matched the samples collected from the mailed documents, which differed from other local strains in China.” 👀
13) I think this is still very rare and maybe a unique winter / frozen climate situation. The WHO has discussed this frozen temperature unique situation before—and @WHO acknowledges frozen food cold chain can be a possible (albeit rare) source for transmission.
14) to be honest, most countries don’t investigate or trace to this degree. China has been diligently tracing for a long time.
15) And the earlier frozen fish case was later confirmed in a formal investigation
16) Also, remember that old unsolved mystery of how New Zealand found that one case that triggered a cluster? In that unsolved outbreak—“Authorities have traced the virus to a worker in a cold-storage 🥶 warehouse, but they can’t figure out how he got it” wsj.com/articles/coron…
17) That said, do not lose sight that overall #COVIDisAirborne — very airborne. This is the most detailed thread 🧵 I’ve written on the subject 👇 —protect yourself and your family.
18) Wow—this other new study shows Omicron survives on most surfaces much longer than the old strain.

Dr Marr is an airborne scientist so she even acknowledges this new concern of Omicron.
19) Another recent study also shows #Omicron surviving longer than the old Wuhan strain and Delta. Omicron does seem environmentally sturdier, which can help it transmit better.

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More from @DrEricDing

Mar 14
BREAKING—Lockdown just imposed for entire Jilin province, population 24 million. Jilin Province just reported 895 locally transmitted #COVID19 cases, & 131 asymptomatic carriers on Sunday, authorities announced Monday. Mayor of Jilin city has been fired.🧵
xinhuanet.com/english/202203… Image
2) This follows Shenzhen’s urgent lockdown yesterday. Shenzhen is the “Silicon Valley” tech and industrial epicenter of China. This likely has global implications if longer than a few days. All production is ceased during this time.
3) How serious is China about what is happening in Jilin? It has begun building a 6000-bed hospital isolation center… with work crews working 24 hours around the clock— scheduled completion is in 6 days from groundbreaking. Live camera of construction: weibo.com/l/wblive/m/sho… Image
Read 5 tweets
Mar 13
I have a bad feeling again—China is reinstating measures & has fired the mayors of 2 key cities. Thus far, China has shut down an industrial city, urged residents not to leave Beijing and closed down schools in Shanghai due to increase of #COVID19. 👀 thehill.com/policy/healthc…
2) If mainland China 🇨🇳 follows the way of Hong Kong 🇭🇰 — then China will be royally screwed. And the world’s supply chain might completely melt down for a period. HK deaths are surging so high it is approaching NYC in spring 2020–and HK hasn’t peaked yet.
3) Worse, “Mainland 🇨🇳 has already started to divert flights away from Shanghai & began lockdown this week with closures in some of its largest provinces. Vessels have stopped departing from Shanghai as a port.” —DAMN that is serious. This is Shanghai! 👀
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 17 tweets
Mar 13
A new #COVID19 class war of HAVES versus HAVE NOTS—

📍Schools for rich kids—HEPA filters, Upper Room UV disinfection, UV in HVAC, unlimited free testing, and N95 masks.

📍Poorer public schools—Often nothing, zero, zilch.

📌Bonus—Richer parents have HEPA filters at home too.
2) Another factor — more wealthier school districts often have more mask mandates / longer duration of mask rules, which rural schools districts are more often dominated by anti mask school board members. And hence, more COVID risk ask well. The difference is stark too 👇
3) meanwhile, cases are soon to surge for sure. We probably have just one month or less before we see increases in a lot of places nationwide. I’d use this time to prepare our schools and community. Are you boosted yet? #GetBoosted School have HEPA filter or UV or Corsi boxes?
Read 4 tweets
Mar 12
📍NEW—The #BA2 now has a 80-90% growth advantage versus old #Omicron in the US. Expect uptick by April, and cases to surge more in late April / May. Wastewater #SARSCoV2 level from @BiobotAnalytics also shows plateauing nationwide & reversal soon🧵. #CovidIsNotOver

HT @JPWeiland ImageImage
2) We already see wastewater signals in Palo Alto uptick for 3-4 consecutive days now. And this is likely almost all #BA2 by genetic signals found in the wastewater.
3) cases and hospitalizations both surging meanwhile in England where #BA2 is now over 50%.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 11
👀Watching—A suddenly 3-straight days of wastewater #SARSCoV2 ⬆️ increase found in Palo Alto & Mountain View (home to Stanford & Google)—similar to late Jan levels. Such signals usually foretells rising #COVID19 cases 1-2 weeks later. #CovidIsNotOver
covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-wast…
Wastewater is one of the best ways to track early warning signs of coronavirus rise. Here is the best national dashboard from @BiobotAnalytics. Their data is not comprehensive like a census because not all counties & cities participate. (But they should). biobot.io/data/
Good time to remind folks that masks work — and reduce transmission by 72% in schools that require them. Huge study 👇
Read 10 tweets
Mar 11
NEW—NIH funded study of 1.1 million students & 160,000 school staff concludes:

💡"Universal masking was associated with a 72% reduction in secondary transmission” versus optional/partial masking.

📍So, #Masks help prevent #COVID19. Protect kids please.
nih.gov/news-events/ne…
2) The study included 61 school districts (kindergarten through grade 12) that provided data from July 26, 2021, through Dec. 13, 2021, a period encompassing the Delta surge and preceding the Omicron surge.
3) In total, there were 40,601 primary infections acquired in the community (36,032 among students, 4,569 among staff) and 3,085 secondary infections acquired in school (2,844 among students, 241 among staff).
Read 6 tweets

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