War in #Ukraine and a halt in negotiations on the #JCPOA due to #Russia’s demands are game changers that also risk endangering #Iran-#SaudiArabia talks. A THREAD 1/11🧵 : google.it/amp/s/www.alja…
2/11 After a new round of #KSA-#Iran talks was announced yesterday, rumors suggested #Iran wished to suspend talks. Meanwhile Iran’s IRGC launched an attack on US installations in Erbil. This is worrying: reuters.com/world/middle-e…
3/11 Russia’s demands in #JCPOA talks and subsequent halt in negotiations, may disincentivize #Tehran to opt for dialogue and refraining from targeting #US assets & Iran’s regional rivals, either directly or through its allied paramilitaries in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
4/11Over the past year, as the #ViennaTalks were ongoing, #Tehran opted for de-escalation. Attacks continued on US installations in Iraq & Syria, and on KSA and UAE, but never reached the proportion of a full-scale escalation. Meanwhile, #Iran & #KSA engaged in rounds of talks.
5/11 By claiming yesterday’s Erbil attack and spreading rumors on a suspension of talks with KSA, Tehran may want to signal that a return to escalation with US and, by extension, regional and Gulf rivals, is still on the table. google.it/amp/s/www.alja…
6/11 On the other hand, Western need for #KSA to keep oil prices low and the halt in the #JCPOA negotiations, may also disincentivize Riyadh from pursuing dialogue and deescalation with Tehran. google.it/amp/s/news.sky…
7/11 As a revived #JCPOA was negotiated & Biden cooled relations with #KSA, Riyadh had shifted its escalatory tone and committed to exploratory talks with #Iran. See @Cinzia_Bianco amwaj.media/media-monitor/…
8/11 Riyadh held its cards close and opted for a gradual/limited engagement with #Tehran, hoping that Iran setbacks in the region and changes in Washington could help, with time, #KSA to turn fortunes. This strategy may have paid back. 👇foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/…
9/11 In past months, #KSA understood Iran’s allied groups losses of seats in #Iraq’s elections, crisis in #Lebanon and more recently halt in #JCPOA as setbacks for Iran and further confirmation that Riyadh should only opt for limited/gradual engagement with Tehran.
10/11 KSA’s execution of prisoners is a signal of the Kingdom’s boosted self-confidence. Riyadh may count on Western needs for low oil prices to force Washington to rehabilitate #KSA & to extract concessions on Yemen, making diplomacy with Tehran even less relevant.
11/11 The recent escalation proves how relevant #JCPOA negotiations and #Iran-#KSA talks have been to keep Iran-US hostilities and tensions in the Gulf in check, and how important is to do all its possible to insulate these processes from the impact of war in Ukraine.
Many thanks to @AbuJamajem for helping me editing this long thread.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
