1) This article represents the predominant view of military analysts of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine: a #STALEMATE, likely to last for months absent a negotiated settlement. It's also one of the best summaries of the military situations I've seen.
tinyurl.com/27ef9xbv
tinyurl.com/27ef9xbv
2) Of course circumstances could change, and the Russians could find a way to win. At the same time, it's also possible that the Russian force could collapse, and the Ukrainians could defeat them. But these are less likely scenarios than a long-term stalemate. #UkraineInvasion
3) That said, military analysis of this war has fallen short since the get-go. Almost all the "experts" predicted a quick victory for the Russians, but they were thoroughly wrong. #UkraineInvasion
4) The media is still having a hard time letting go of that narrative. War is full of surprises, and further surprises is one development I would continue to expect. #UkraineInvasion
5) The one person I've seen get this whole war right from the get-go is Ret. Gen. Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling). I don't know how he figured it out, &it took a look of guts for him to say it out loud, but that explains why he must have been such a wonderful leader and still is.
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