Thread by @MysticScholar

@DAlperovitch 1) "Lost": that's not what most military analysts I read are saying. I would say that the predominant word I see is "stalemate" (e.g. ISW and many others).

@DAlperovitch 2) Now I guess one could argue that a stalemate is effectively a loss for Russia. And probably it is in many ways, but that's more a product of expectations than an objective description.

@DAlperovitch 3) It really looks like a loss if you compare it to the predominant analysis before the #RussiaInvasion of Ukraine. Virtually everyone (except for e.g. @MarkHertling ) thought that Russia would finish Ukraine off in 2 days or maybe a week at most.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 4) Virtually all military analysts thought the Russians had this powerful, souped-up modern army. But they were wrong about that too. Russia's military--esp their failure to have an NCO core--did not follow Western best practices, and we've now seen what happens when you do that.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 5) I'm not here to focus on criticizing all those analysts (though one sure could), but the way we frame the state of military operations is heavily influenced by prior expectations that proved shockingly wrong.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 6) We're dealing with a "narrative," not a neutral attempt to describe the actual, current state of affairs.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 7) A neutral description would likely say we have a "stalemate" more or less across the Ukrainian military theater. The Ukrainians have way outperformed expectations, while the Russians have way underperformed, but it's not clear that either side has much of an advantage now.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 8) Of course, that could change either way. The Russians could somehow figure things out--though they would likely have to find a way to bring in tens/hundreds of 1000s more troops (which would be hard to do w/out political consequences.)

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 9) The Ukrainians could turn from defense to offense, counter-attacking, as they have past few days in NW Kyiv region. The Russian military could then collapse, but, as you have noted, Russians love misery, and maybe that's an unlikely scenario too.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 10) Or Putin could try to lure NATO into the war by doing something that would force NATO's hand: e.g. bombing on NATO territory, chemical weapons, tactical nukes. I know you think Putin wouldn't likely do that, and maybe you're right about the reasons.

@DAlperovitch @MarkHertling 11) So we have a possible long-term stalemate where neither side can gain clear military advantages. I would sure like to see Ukraine end this quickly, but I'm not certain that's the most probable scenario, though I hope I'm proved wrong. #UkraineInvasion