The trajectory of adoption by users has been phenomenal since the launch of Pix in November 2020
The trajectory is even clearer in this chart which shows the relative adoption by comparison to other retail fast payment systems
Technology is only part of the story; after all, technology is similar everywhere
Instead, the lessons are on the *economics*, especially the importance of an open payment architecture
The Central Bank of Brazil provides the payment infrastructure but also sets the rule book for service providers; digital ID and technical standards for data exchange (through APIs) ensure interoperability
Pix is free for individuals and virtually free for merchants (in yellow in the chart below)
The contrast with credit card fees is very stark
In spite of rapid technological progress in information processing in recent decades the cost of payments has remained stubbornly high
Users don't always see these costs (they are levied on merchants) but users will bear the ultimate burden if they are passed on as higher prices
Adoption of Pix has been very rapid; it overtook pre-paid cards within months, and is poised to overtake credit and debit cards
Two factors likely account for Pix's rapid growth
First is the mandatory participation of large banks, which set in motion network effects that drew in others
The second is the dual role of the central bank - as infrastructure provider and the overseer of the rule book
The data architecture (digital ID together with APIs that ensure interoperability) gives teeth to effective competition
In fact, there are broader lessons for the roll-out of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)
The data architecture consisting of digital IDs and APIs that ensure privacy has a lot in common with that for CBDCs
Pix gives a glimpse of what's possible
Some of you are asking in the comments section what all this means for advanced economies, especially the US
My panel at the #NABE with Nellie Liang covered some of this
For more on the link between instant payment systems and CBDCs, the video of the #NABE conference session with US Treasury Undersecretary Nellie Liang and @jc_econ is posted on the conference site
At the same time, the international co-movement of house prices has strengthened; more than 60% of house price movements can now be explained by a common global factor
Small open economies (both advanced and emerging) have been at the sharp end of this development
The financial channel of exchange rates operates through the risk capacity of market participants and shows up in the response of financial conditions to exchange rate movements
This new BIS Working Paper shows that the channel operates for stock returns, too
Dollar-denominated returns tend to be an amplified version of the local currency-denominated returns; both the gains and losses are magnified when converted into dollar returns
Hence the "dollar return multiplier"
The dollar return multiplier comes about because stock returns tend to be positive when the local currency is appreciating against the dollar and negative when it's depreciating
This correlation turns out to be a remarkably robust feature of the data
Supply bottlenecks have grabbed all the headlines recently, but longer-term structural changes brought about by the pandemic (labour markets, especially) are important to understand where we are headed
Two further points to bear in mind are (1) counterparty sector (official or private financial, private non-financial) and (2) the distinction between location and nationality
For this, the following BIS data would shed more light
First, regarding the counterparty sector, the 2020:Q1 surge in cross-border banking flows stands out
Normally, we would expect a sharp retrenchment during stress episodes, but there was instead a surge, as discussed in this #BIS_Bulletin bis.org/publ/bisbull34…
A closer look reveals that most of the flows were the recycling of dollar funding through interoffice flows as part of a "Grand Overdraft"; this explains the surge and the subsequent unwinding
#DeFi, or decentralised finance, is the latest manifestation of this idea where the ledger is much more elaborate than simply keeping score of who pays whom
Bottlenecks started out as disruptions to supply, but they have morphed into something more
Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping
So, what then is going on?
Two factors are key: (1) shift in composition of demand and (2) the endogenous changes in behaviour that's given rise to bullwhip effects