A quiet revolution in the monetary system started in November 2020, when Brazil launched its Pix instant payment system

In little over a year, it signed up two-thirds of Brazil's adult population

The latest #BIS_Bulletin tells the amazing story

A thread
bis.org/publ/bisbull52…
The trajectory of adoption by users has been phenomenal since the launch of Pix in November 2020
The trajectory is even clearer in this chart which shows the relative adoption by comparison to other retail fast payment systems
Technology is only part of the story; after all, technology is similar everywhere

Instead, the lessons are on the *economics*, especially the importance of an open payment architecture
The Central Bank of Brazil provides the payment infrastructure but also sets the rule book for service providers; digital ID and technical standards for data exchange (through APIs) ensure interoperability
Pix is free for individuals and virtually free for merchants (in yellow in the chart below)

The contrast with credit card fees is very stark
In spite of rapid technological progress in information processing in recent decades the cost of payments has remained stubbornly high

Users don't always see these costs (they are levied on merchants) but users will bear the ultimate burden if they are passed on as higher prices
Adoption of Pix has been very rapid; it overtook pre-paid cards within months, and is poised to overtake credit and debit cards
Two factors likely account for Pix's rapid growth

First is the mandatory participation of large banks, which set in motion network effects that drew in others
The second is the dual role of the central bank - as infrastructure provider and the overseer of the rule book

The data architecture (digital ID together with APIs that ensure interoperability) gives teeth to effective competition
In fact, there are broader lessons for the roll-out of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs)

The data architecture consisting of digital IDs and APIs that ensure privacy has a lot in common with that for CBDCs

Pix gives a glimpse of what's possible
Some of you are asking in the comments section what all this means for advanced economies, especially the US

My panel at the #NABE with Nellie Liang covered some of this

Short answer is "a lot", especially on FedNow

For more on the link between instant payment systems and CBDCs, the video of the #NABE conference session with US Treasury Undersecretary Nellie Liang and @jc_econ is posted on the conference site

nabe.com/NABE/Events/PC…
It was a real pleasure to speak to Governor Roberto Campos Neto of the Central Bank of Brazil on Pix

Roberto described to me how Pix exemplifies the benefits of harnessing technology for the public good

My favorite part of this “fireside chat” was when Roberto discussed the reactions of the banking sector

At first, they were not happy; but they quickly realized the huge potential from having additional business lines

“Best way to persuade banks is to persuade their customers”
Check out the other sessions of the #BIS_Innovation_Summit held earlier this week

bis.org/events/bis_inn…

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More from @HyunSongShin

Mar 11
House prices boomed during the Covid recession - a big departure from past recessions

Where house prices go from here will be a key determinant of global activity

A thread from our latest #BIS_Bulletin on the topic

bis.org/publ/bisbull50…
First, it's worth stressing how unusual the Covid recession was in terms of house prices

Typically, economic downturns are followed by a moderate fall in house prices lasting about four quarters

This time round, there was not even a temporary dip

At the same time, the international co-movement of house prices has strengthened; more than 60% of house price movements can now be explained by a common global factor

Small open economies (both advanced and emerging) have been at the sharp end of this development
Read 19 tweets
Feb 9
The financial channel of exchange rates operates through the risk capacity of market participants and shows up in the response of financial conditions to exchange rate movements

This new BIS Working Paper shows that the channel operates for stock returns, too

A thread:
First finding:

Dollar-denominated returns tend to be an amplified version of the local currency-denominated returns; both the gains and losses are magnified when converted into dollar returns

Hence the "dollar return multiplier"
The dollar return multiplier comes about because stock returns tend to be positive when the local currency is appreciating against the dollar and negative when it's depreciating

This correlation turns out to be a remarkably robust feature of the data
Read 11 tweets
Dec 9, 2021
The opening seminar for the Indonesian G20 presidency was a good opportunity to take stock of #bottlenecks and #inflation risks

A thread follows

bis.org/speeches/sp211…
Supply bottlenecks have grabbed all the headlines recently, but longer-term structural changes brought about by the pandemic (labour markets, especially) are important to understand where we are headed

bis.org/publ/bisbull47…
But first, a recap of where we stand on #bottlenecks

The sharp swings in some commodity prices (lumber, iron ore, coal) are suggestive of #bullwhip effects

For their part, shipping costs look to have peaked
Read 26 tweets
Nov 21, 2021
Good observations by @EtraAlex

Two further points to bear in mind are (1) counterparty sector (official or private financial, private non-financial) and (2) the distinction between location and nationality

For this, the following BIS data would shed more light

(continued)
First, regarding the counterparty sector, the 2020:Q1 surge in cross-border banking flows stands out

Normally, we would expect a sharp retrenchment during stress episodes, but there was instead a surge, as discussed in this #BIS_Bulletin
bis.org/publ/bisbull34…
A closer look reveals that most of the flows were the recycling of dollar funding through interoffice flows as part of a "Grand Overdraft"; this explains the surge and the subsequent unwinding
Read 10 tweets
Nov 17, 2021
Thanks to colleagues at LBS for the opportunity to take stock of the decentralisation agenda in digital finance, from #bitcoin to #DeFi

A thread on the key points:

bis.org/speeches/sp211…
Blockchain has breathed new life into the idea of money as a substitute for a ledger that keeps score of who owes what to whom

"Money is memory" according to the classic 1998 by Narayana Kocherlakota

minneapolisfed.org/research/sr/sr…
#DeFi, or decentralised finance, is the latest manifestation of this idea where the ledger is much more elaborate than simply keeping score of who pays whom
Read 20 tweets
Nov 11, 2021
The inflation surge has brought #bottlenecks under the spotlight

Today's #BIS_Bulletin takes a closer look at what's going on and what we might encounter going forward

A short thread follows
bis.org/publ/bisbull48…
Bottlenecks started out as disruptions to supply, but they have morphed into something more

Key point to bear in mind: in aggregate at least, supply has caught up to pre-pandemic levels in key sectors like semi-conductors as well as in raw materials and shipping
So, what then is going on?

Two factors are key: (1) shift in composition of demand and (2) the endogenous changes in behaviour that's given rise to bullwhip effects

Let me takes these in turn
Read 16 tweets

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