Ted Darling Profile picture
Apr 1 โ€ข 17 tweets โ€ข 7 min read
Hello Friday at the 1st day of April!
๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฐ

Since there's no trading allowed on the Fool's ๐Ÿƒ Day, let's review the month-end and quarter-end ๐Ÿงฎ!
๐ŸŒŠ rough seas, for sure, but equity volatility declined into month-end (m) but remained ๐Ÿ›— for the quarter (q)

$VIX 20.81 -9.34 pts (m), +3.59 puts (q)
The $NIKK +4.88% (m), -3.37% (q) was the best performing developed market

$SPX +3.6% (m), -4.95% (q)
$COMPQ +3.4% (m), -9.1% (q)
$CAC +0.02% (m), -6.9% (q)
$DAX -0.3% (m), -9.25% (q)
$HSI -2.87% (m), -5.7% (q)
$KOSPI +2.15% (m), -7.4% (q)
$SSEC -6.05% (m), -10.65% (q) โฌ…๏ธ
$XLU was the best performing US equity sector for the month, while $XLE took the ๐Ÿฅฎ for the quarter
(reported ex-div)

$XLU +9.9% (m), +4.3% (q)
$XLE +8.3% (m), +37.75% (q)
$XLRE +7.2% (m), -6.75% (q)
$XLV +5.4% (m), -2.75% (q)
$XLY +4.25% (m), -9.5% (q)
With interest rates through the ๐Ÿ›–, $XHB was the worst performing US sub-sector

#NotQuad4

$XHB -9.8% (m), -26.3% (q)
China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ crashed mid-month before the PBoC stepped in to rescue markets

$FXI -8.4% (m), -12.6% (q)
Rich with ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธ and ๐ŸŒฝ, Brazil ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท ripped ๐Ÿš€

$EWZ +14.95% (m), +34.7% (q)
Metals were higher on the month, with Dr. $COPPER leading the charge

#NotQuad4

$COPPER +6.75% (m), +6.5% (q)
Lots of ๐ŸŒŠ with hydrocarbons with $OVX 57.66, but ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธand โ›ฝ๏ธ were up sharply on the month and quarter

#NotQuad4

$WTIC +4.75% (m), +33.3% (q)
$GASO +7.5% (m), +41.9% (q)
$NATGAS +28.2% (m), +51.2 (q)

Natty ๐Ÿš€
Not only is your food and energy going to cost more, but so are your ๐Ÿ‘š ๐Ÿ‘–

$COTTON +10.6% (m), +20.75% (q)
At least your โ˜•๏ธ was stable

$COFFEE -3.0% (m), -0.5% (q)
The story of the month and quarter as UST yields ๐Ÿš€ with curve ๐Ÿฅž

#MaybeQuad4?

The 10/2s declined to .8BPS from 39 BPS at the beginning of the month and 79 BPS at the beginning of the quarter
Bonds were the absolute worst place for your capital for the month and quarter

#NotQuad4

$TLT -5.55% (m), -10.85% (q)
Kuroda-San has pegged the 10-year JGB at < 25 BPS and is the only CB loosening into #inflation.

With that, the ๐Ÿ’ด crashed
$FXY -5.65% (m), -5.6% (q)
The Aussie, on the other hand, picked up the slack in #FX markets๐Ÿฆ˜๐Ÿฆ˜

$FXA +3.0% (m), +2.95% (q)
#Bitcoin

$BTCUSD +5.7% (m), -5.6% (q)
If your #furu bought $TLT, shorted $QQQ, and was indifferent to $CRB, then you missed an epic ๐Ÿƒโ€โ™‚๏ธ in ๐Ÿ›ข๏ธโ›ฝ๏ธ๐ŸŒฝ and the best short ๐Ÿฉณ in treasuries $TBT in a decade

Yeh, maybe the ๐Ÿ’ is going to #quad4, but run your comparisons vs 2019 and ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ

Have a super profitable ๐Ÿ’ฐ day!

โ€ข โ€ข โ€ข

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More from @tdarling1

Mar 31
Hello Thursday and the last day of March 2022!

Month to Date
$NATGAS +27.35%
$BRENT +13.6%
$COPPER +6.65%
$CORN +6.85%
$CRB +12.0%

$BTC +9.4%
$GOLD +2.0%
$USD +1.2%

$NIKK +5.65%
$SPX +5.2%
$COMPQ +5.0%
$DAX +1.0%
$SSEC +5.65%

$TLT -5.65%
$SHY -1.4%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia closed March with a whimper โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 27821 -0.75%
$SSEC 3252 -0.45%
$TWII 17693 -0.25%
$HSI 21997 -1.05%
$KOSPI 2558 +0.4% โฌ…๏ธ
$IDX 7071 +0.25% โฌ…๏ธ

Australia โ†˜๏ธ
$ASX 7500 -0.2%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE 58664 -0.05%
Europe โ†˜๏ธ for a 2nd day

$DAX 14590 -0.1%
$FTSE 7569 -0.15%
$CAC 6724 -0.25%
$AEX 731 -0.45%
$IBEX 8532 -0.2%
$MIB 25273 -0.1%
$SMI 12253 +0.1%
$MOEX 2640 +5.0% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 28.10 ๐Ÿ”บ
Read 11 tweets
Mar 30
Hello ๐Ÿซ day!

I've moved on, but the ๐Ÿซ hasn't

With IVOL/RVOL in $SPX of -33, what could possibly go wrong?

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Ex-Japan, with its own unique set of problems, Asia closed broadly โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 28027 -0.8%
$SSEC 3267 +1.95%
$TWII 17741 +1.1%
$HSI 22213 +1.3%
$KOSPI 2747 +0.2%
$IDX 7053 +1.0%

Australia โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7514 +0.65%

India โ†—๏ธ
$BSE 58583 +1.1%
The "hope of โ˜ฎ๏ธ" rally in Europe gives way to some selling โ†˜๏ธ

$DAX 14625 -1.35%
$FTSE 7527 -0.15%
$CAC 6721 -1.05%
$AEX 732 -0.45%
$UBEX 8545 -0.8%
$MIB 25117 -0.75%
$SMI 12262 -0.5%
$MOEX 2474 +2.7% โฌ…๏ธ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 26.58 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
Mar 27
๐Ÿปโ™‰๏ธโ†—๏ธโ†˜๏ธโ†”๏ธโš ๏ธ๐Ÿšฉ๐Ÿ”บ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿงฎ

Global Macro Review 03/27/22

1/8

Nothing but #Quad3 #stagflation
as far as the ๐Ÿ‘โ€๐Ÿ—จ can ๐Ÿ‘€

Commodities โ†—๏ธ

Yields โ†—๏ธ

Equities โ†—๏ธ

Letโ€™s dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
2/8

The ๐Ÿ”‘ to โ†˜๏ธ prices is โ†—๏ธ prices?

Chart: The $CRB closed at a new cycle high 307.33 +5.16% and is now within striking distance of the June 2014 ๐Ÿ”
2a/8

Hydrocarbons put in another shift this week ๐Ÿš€
(w) = week (T) = Trend = 3 months

$BRENT +8.75% (w) +53.05% (T)
$GASO +7.15% (w) +56.35% (T)
$NATGAS + 15.45% (w) +54.55% (T) โฌ…๏ธ
$WTIC +10.5% (W) +54.35% (T)

Chart: Uncle Joe is going to bottle up Natty and sell it to the EU
Read 21 tweets
Mar 25
Hello Friday!

Last night, we hosted a surprise ๐ŸŽ‚ ๐ŸŽ‰๐Ÿพ for my wife. Sit down dinner with 30 friends and family members.
First time, long time. It felt good!

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ! Image
Week to date:

$USDJPY +2.68%
$GOLD +1.7%
$AUD +1.36%
$USD +0.58%
$EUR +0.48%

$NATGAS +12.0%
$BRENT +9.5%
$BTC +7.0%
$SILVER +3.3%
$SOYB +1.95%
$COPPER +0.05%
$LUMBER -14.2%

$NIKK +4.8%
$HSI +2.5%
$COMPQ +2.15%
$SPX +1.3%
$CAC -0.95%

$TNX 2.34 +9.0%

$VIX 21.97 -220 BPS
Asia closed the week on a ๐Ÿป ๐ŸŽถ โ†˜๏ธ

$NIKK 28150 +0.15%
$SSEC 3212 -1.15%
$TWII 17677 -0.1%
$HSI 21405 -2.45%
$KOSPI 2730 unch
$IDX 7003 -0.65%

Australia โ™‰๏ธ โ†—๏ธ
$ASX 7406 +0.25%

India ๐Ÿป โ†˜๏ธ
$BSE 57309 -0.5%
Read 12 tweets
Mar 18
Hello #OPEX Friday!

Week to Date:

$AUD +1.15%
$USD -1.17%
$GOLD -2.1%
$SILVER -2.1%

$HSI +4.6%
$CAC +5.65%
$NIKK +5.9%
$COMPQ +6.0%

$COPPER +1.65%
$WHEAT -0.1%
$WTIC -7.0%

$TLT -2.3%

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia finished the week โ†—๏ธ

$NIKK 26827 +0.65%
$SSEC 3251 +1.1%
$TWII 17457 +0.05%
$HSI 21464 -0.15%
$KOSPI 2707 +0.45%
$IDX 6955 -0.15%

Australia โ†—๏ธโ™‰๏ธ
$ASX 7294 +0.6%

India โ†”๏ธ
$BSE closed for Holi
Europe under pressure โ†˜๏ธ at the open

$DAX 14317 -0.5%
$FTSE 7361 -0.3%
$CAC 6569 -0.65%
$AEX 707 -0.1%
$IBEX 8411 unch
$MIB 24182 +0.25%
$SMI 12033 -0.25%
$MOEX closed for ๐Ÿ’ฅ๐Ÿช†

$VSTOXX 32.02 ๐Ÿ”ป
Read 11 tweets
Mar 17
Hello St. Patrick's Day! ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

Emerging market equities, commodities, and currencies are ๐Ÿป the ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ๐Ÿ•Š๏ธ that are PE Powell and the #FOMC

Let #inflation ๐Ÿƒ

Let's dig into the ๐Ÿงฎ!
Asia ๐Ÿš€ for a 2nd day ๐Ÿ€๐Ÿ€

$NIKK 26653 +3.45%
$SSEC 32115 +1.4%
$TWII 17448 +3.0%
$HSI 21501 +7.05% โฌ…๏ธ
$KOSPI 2695 +1.35%
$IDX 6964 -0.4%

Australia โ†—๏ธ๐Ÿ€
$ASX 8251 +1.05%

India โ†—๏ธ๐Ÿ€
$BSE 57954 +2.0%
Europe a little more subdued but mostly โ†—๏ธ

$DAX 14410 -0.2%
$FTSE 7305 +0.15%
$CAC 6596 +0.1%
$AEX 707 +0.45%
$IBEX 6410 +0.45%
$MIB 24222 -0.2%
$SMI 11940 +0.35%
$MOEX ๐Ÿช†๐Ÿ’ฅ

$VSTOXX 36.01 ๐Ÿ”ป๐Ÿ€
Read 11 tweets

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