Jomini of the West Profile picture
Apr 19 13 tweets 6 min read
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 172 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium. #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.
4/ Kharkiv OD. Ukraine appears to be reinforcing the Kharkiv OD, the 93rd Mech Brigade is reportedly operating in NW Kharkiv now. Successful counterattacks SE of Chuhuiv may be expanded in the coming days to threaten Russian GLOCs to the east. #Kharkiv
5/ As assessed late last week, the Kharkiv OD may potentially become 1 of 2 battle zones for the Ukrainian military. A weighted counteroffensive in this area will sever Russian GLOCs running from Belgorod & Valuyki to the Izium area.
6/ Severodonetsk-Donetsk OD. Russian forces have increased offensive activity in Severodonetsk Salient over the past 24 hours. Although these attacks have not made significant gains they could be the start of the anticipated general Donbas offensive. #Izium #Severodonetsk
7/ Ukrainian and western intelligence statements claim Russia has massed at least 22 Battalion Tactical Groups in the Izium area. Even with severely damaged units, a force of this size could make a meaningful breakthrough if properly employed to make & exploit one.
8/ Zaporizhzhia OD. Russian activity in the in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast remains focused on the capture of Mariupol. Limited attacks and counterattacks by Russian and Ukrainian forces continue between the line running from Vasylivka to Volnovakha.
9/ Mariupol. Russian forces will more than likely defeat the remaining Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol in the coming week. Ukrainian defenders will not make it easy for the Russians, they will most likely force them to storm their positions rather than surrender. #Mariupol
10/ Odesa-Kherson OD. Fighting continues for the control of Oleksandrivka to the west of Kherson. There has been little other action in this area over the past 72 hours. #Kherson #Odesa
11/ Aerospace Assessment. U.S. intelligence estimates that the VKS averages 200 air sorties a day. Russia is still able to conduct missile strikes against Kyiv and into western Ukraine to target both critical infrastructure and civilians alike.
12/ These maps have been created by me based off the most reliable information of activity in the Ukrainian Theater of War from a variety of sources. Errors will be corrected as soon as they are identified.
13/ Information regarding Ukrainian units are meant to be general, are based on Ukrainian General Staff statements and social media posts, official Ukrainian government press releases, and local news. It does not depict current unit movements.

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More from @JominiW

Apr 19
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 52-54: The past 72 hrs. have seen Russian forces reduce Ukrainian defenses in Mariupol to the Azovstal area. Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv launch several successful counterattacks while Russia builds forces near Izium. #Ukraine #UkraineInvasion
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.67 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. 27 European countries are hosting Ukrainian Refugees, with many eastern European nations taking the weight of this humanitarian crisis.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 8 mph. Air & artillery strikes will remain degraded, while heavy rain continues to restrict ground movement.
Read 13 tweets
Apr 16
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 47-51: The past 120 hrs. have seen Russian forces attempt to break through the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. In Mariupol Russian forces have made multiple gains, Ukrainian defenses still hold SW & central Mariupol. #UkraineRussianWar
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.4 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The extent of destruction to Ukrainian cities due to recent fighting is becoming more apparent as UN UNOSAT data becomes available. t.me/ukrpravda_news…
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average at 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while restricting ground movement.
Read 19 tweets
Apr 15
1/ Surmising Ukraine’s Strategic Options. Earlier this week I speculated on what a revised Russian OPLAN may look like. Today I will surmise on likely strategic options Ukraine may pursue to defeat Russia…and win. Another long thread. #UkraineRussiaWar #UkraineUnderAttack
2/ I ended the surmised Russian OPLAN thread with a very brief discussion regarding the challenge how sparse data on the Ukrainian Armed Forces makes it difficult to forecast its operational direction. If anything, this shows the strength of UAF operational security.
3/ One speculative statement I made guessed that the Ukrainian military may be stretched too thin for major counteroffensives, especially of the kind I suggest in this thread. However, I do feel the potential for the action I describe is there for a few reasons.
Read 30 tweets
Apr 11
1/ Surmising a revised Russian OPLAN. Here are my thoughts on what Russia’s revised operational plan may look like. I have constructed this off what I consider the most logical operational approach that can yield positive results. #UkraineRussianWar #UkraineUnderAttack #strategy
2/ Given Russian operational performance to date I realize that this assessment may end up being wildly off. Producing a reliable open-source analysis is difficult to say the least. Information is scarce & what is available is heavily weighted in favor of Ukraine.
3/ Still, to understand where this war is going, what conditions military operations will create in the coming weeks, and how they may set conditions for a negotiated settlement an attempt to surmise a logical course of action is necessary.
Read 32 tweets
Apr 11
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 42-46: The past 100 hrs. have seen increased Russian focus on the Donets River Line & Severodonetsk Salient. Ukraine has mounted a series of successful counter attacks against Kherson, threatening Russian control there. #UkraineRussianWar Image
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees top 6.1 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. Russian forces allowed 3,425 civilians to be evacuated from Berdyanak & Mariupol, while another 529 civilians were evacuated from Melitopol.
3/ Weather Impact. The 10-day forecast for most of the Donbas-Kherson TVD will comprise of increased cloud cover & rainstorms, wind speed will generally average above 10 mph. These conditions will degrade air & artillery strikes, while ground movement will be slowed.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 6
1/ Ukrainian Theater of War, Day 41: The past 24 hours saw Russian forces continue retreat from the Sumy oblast, although a small portion maintains a token Russian force. Redeployment of units from Kyiv & Sumy to Izium continues. #UkraineWar #RussianUkrainianWar #Ukraine
2/ Humanitarian Impact. Ukrainian refugees near 6 million, with over 6.6 million IDPs throughout Ukraine. The UN Human Rights Office now states Russian forces directly & killed civilians in Bucha. Russian forces continue to block access to Mariupol.
3/ Weather assessment. The Donbas region will experience extended periods of cloud cover and rain during the early part of next week (11-13 Apr). These conditions and varying wind speed will hamper the accuracy of air & artillery strikes for VKS & UAF.
Read 16 tweets

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