My fifth paper for @GI_TOC has just gone live!
Over eight months, we catalogued 425 weapons and over 3,200 rounds of ammunition in 13 illicit markets across #Somalia.
(thread)
globalinitiative.net/analysis/somal…
Over eight months, we catalogued 425 weapons and over 3,200 rounds of ammunition in 13 illicit markets across #Somalia.
(thread)
globalinitiative.net/analysis/somal…
The research showed that assault rifles were priced approx. $90 higher in southern Somalia than in the north.
The pricing data constitutes tentative corroborating evidence of a north-south illicit supply chain, with weapons becoming more expensive the further south they travel.
The pricing data constitutes tentative corroborating evidence of a north-south illicit supply chain, with weapons becoming more expensive the further south they travel.
Over 60% of documented weapons were of apparent #Chinese manufacture, with an additional ~20% manufactured in #Russia (Soviet Union).
Arms supplied in the context of the war in #Yemen continued to spill over into Somalia.
Iranian-manufactured rifles were documented as far south as Beletweyne. It is plausible that these rifles had originally formed part of illicit arms transfers from #Iran to the #Houthis.
Iranian-manufactured rifles were documented as far south as Beletweyne. It is plausible that these rifles had originally formed part of illicit arms transfers from #Iran to the #Houthis.
Moreover, NATO-calibre G3 battle rifles manufactured in Saudi Arabia are increasingly appearing in #Puntand. The rifles had perhaps originally been supplied to Arab coalition partners in Yemen.
The consignment was reportedly intended for Al-Shabaab militants.
The consignment was reportedly intended for Al-Shabaab militants.
30,000 rounds of Saudi-manufactured 7.62 × 51 mm NATO ammunition (compatible with G3 rifles) were seized by #Puntland authorities in May 2021 en route from Yemen.
We also documented 7.62 × 51 mm ammunition manufactured in Turkey and the United States in Puntland.
Finally, weapons from Somali federal government stocks continue to leak into illicit markets. Of the weapons we documented, 20, or about 5%, bore apparent #FGS markings.
Concluding thoughts:
Recent instability in Puntland could allow commercial arms-trafficking networks to operate with even greater impunity, with cascading consequences for southern Somalia as well as neighbouring countries.
Recent instability in Puntland could allow commercial arms-trafficking networks to operate with even greater impunity, with cascading consequences for southern Somalia as well as neighbouring countries.
In particular, onward flows of illicit weapons into #Ethiopia could be particularly destabilizing in the context of its ongoing civil war.
As the war in Yemen drags on, the arms-trafficking networks servicing that demand are likely to expand and further entrench themselves.
Northern Somalia may well solidify its position as a major arms corridor into the HoA, and potentially beyond.
Northern Somalia may well solidify its position as a major arms corridor into the HoA, and potentially beyond.
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