Chris Williamson Profile picture
Apr 22, 2022 6 tweets 3 min read Read on X
The flash S&P Global/CIPS composite #PMI fell from 60.9 in March to 57.6 in April. Although broadly consistent with GDP growing at a quarterly rate of 0.7-8%, the latest reading signals a marked slowing in the pace of growth 1/
UK service sector business inflows grew at the slowest rate in 2022 to date. In manufacturing, order book growth has lost momentum, driven by an increasing loss of export sales, to result in the weakest rise in new orders since January 2021. 2/
#UK manufacturers and service providers reported demand having been hit by high COVID-19 infection rates and spending power having been squeezed by higher prices, but Brexit was also seen as having hit exports, and the Ukraine war/sanctions was cited as an additional headwind 3/
Concerns over the worsening inflation outlook were flamed by another leap in firms' costs in April. Average input costs rose at a rate just shy of last November's record high, pointing to a further re-acceleration of UK inflationary pressures 4/
Having been hit hard in March, future output expectations were scaled back further in April, with prospects now running at their lowest since October 2020 on average. Concerns over the Russia-Ukraine war added to concerns over Brexit, supply chains, prices and economic growth 5/6
In summary, UK April flash #PMI surveys showed an unwelcome picture of slowing demand, slumping business confidence about the year ahead and soaring price pressures 6/6

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More from @WilliamsonChris

Feb 21, 2023
UK business activity surged back into life in February, according to the flash PMI, displaying renewed growth after six months of decline. The composite PMI rose from 48.5 to 53.0, registering the strongest expansion since last June and smashing expectations of a reading of 49.2
UK PMI input cost gauges also fell further, but only slightly to remain elevated. So #CPI #inflation should continue to moderate, but the Bank of England's 2% target still seems a long way off
Here's the latest UK PMI data on output and prices charted against Bank of England #MPC policy decisions. Hard to see them taking a pause from tightening policy in March!
Read 4 tweets
Jan 24, 2023
UK #recession risk rises as flash #PMI falls deeper into contraction in January amid worsening service sector economy and ongoing manufacturing decline. More at bit.ly/3WzVTev
Survey highlights how headwinds are driving UK economic activity lower, though price pressures are thankfully cooling - albeit remaining elevated
Survey data also highlight how the #BoE policy tightening is having an impact. More rates hikes to come amid reduced government help to households and businesses will undoubtedly add to recession risks.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 4, 2023
Global #manufacturing output fell for a 5th straight month in December. Although improving supply helped moderate the rate of decline, a further steepening in the rate of loss of new orders paints a bleak picture of demand. More at bit.ly/3jSl9P9 #PMI
Factories around the world are now also shedding workers in response to worrying signs of excess operating capacity, according to @SPGlobalPMI data
@SPGlobalPMI Similarly, input buying by factories is slumping worldwide as firms adjust their inventories to lower demand and lower production requirements.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 4, 2022
Global #manufacturing PMI falls into contraction territory for first time since 2020 lockdowns.

Here's our deep dive into the numbers and sub-indices bit.ly/3RzsmPs
Of the 31 economies for which S&P Global PMI data are available for September, some 21 reported falling production. Myanmar and Taiwan are seeing the steepest downturns, followed by the Czech Republic and Poland.
Evidence of any substantial growth in production was largely confined to APAC, led by advances in Thailand, India, Indonesia and Vietnam.
Read 7 tweets
Jul 19, 2022
Worldwide PMIs to provide guidance on recession risks and inflation trends. Read our free preview of what to look out for in Friday's flash releases ihsmarkit.com/research-analy…
The key data will be the new orders indices, and what they are telling us about the environment in which central banks are hiking interest rates. It's not been looking great up to June ... Image
With forward-looking #PMI indicators such as business expectations, new orders and backlogs of work signalling worse is yet to come, euro area #GDP looks set to contract in the third quarter Image
Read 6 tweets
Jun 23, 2022
Flash #Germany #PMI Composite Output Index falls to 51.3 in June (May 53.7, consensus 53.1), a 6-month low and indicative of GDP contracting. As with France, consensus well and truly missed

More at bit.ly/3OhVVnF
Manufacturing Output Index at 49.0 (May: 51.2) amid steepest drop in factory orders for two years. Services PMI at 5-month low of 52.4 (May: 55.0) with demand also now falling.
German businesses also reported their lowest confidence towards future activity for over two years in June, led by worsening prospects in manufacturing. This points to a worsening economic decline in coming months
Read 5 tweets

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