A 🧵on the #Dmitrievsky #Chemical Plant explosion and fire. On @Twitter I mostly post on Data Security (20year as a CxO and #Votehacking. But I also have 9 years as CEO and longer on BODs of #AdvancedMaterials / #NanoMaterials.
The extreme damage, perhaps total destruction of this chemical plant is going to have a spectacular and massive impact on the #RussianArmy. Possibly grinding entire systems to a stop in weeks, perhaps even days.
Like many industrial sectors in #Russia, they tend to be centralized, massive + singular. This is generally a result of historic centralization of production under the Soviet model, and a fear of building massive high-cost infrastructure by nonRU firms #BASF #DuPont etc.
At one of my prior firms, bid products from this plant. AFAIK, they are the only maker of a huge range of solvents and reactives of this kind in W. #Russia. See here: dcpt.ru/production/pro…
Among the products this plant made are the additives needed for advanced rocket/jet fuels, treatments/solvents for servicing metal parts, core input chemicals for explosive and solvents/traces/washes needed to manufacture electronics and circuits.
This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. For those who may think Tier 1/2s will have stock on hand; Nope. At most 2-3 weeks as these are VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) that die on the shelf.
I will provide a Domestic Example. In mid 2020 Midland MI had a 100 year flood and a massive local dam failure. That flood knocked out DOZENS of 1-of-a-kind US Specialty Chemical processes centered in that area. My firms, and 100s of others had to scramble for global backfill.
It took 18+ months of global fill-in sourcing for US firms to stabilize post Midland Floods and US Production still has not fully recovered. #RussiaSanctions will prevent them from doing the same. I am certain in every corner of #Russian industry is in full panic.
I have been reading the brilliant #RussiaUkraineWar coverage of @OzKaterji @Militarylandnet @KofmanMichael @HN_Schlottman @Nrg8000 but if this #ChemicalPlant Fire is as bad as it appears, this will not be a long war. #Russia has lost a unique key tool it needs to make #War.
If you have not seen the fire, or know what I am talking about...here is the Mirror's coverage... mirror.co.uk/news/world-new…
Of course the solution to this issue will likely be #China. I am sure they are likely scrambling to backfill/replace #Russia as I type, but that is going to be complicated on a numerous levels.
And there are echos of the past to consider. Many historians note the destruction of one town in Germany, crippled the Nazi war machine. The town made 99% of their Ball Bearings. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schweinfu…
Folks asked by DM and in comments for a BDA. Spoke with three fellow #chemicalplant #folks... our thoughts.
And if you want a short version of what this plant did, here is the 2nd thread I wrote just to explain what type of plant this was... #chemistry and #chemical #engineering is complex folks.

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More from @Spoonamore

Jul 20, 2022
Con-call with 3 collegues. All #Banking #Security pros. They noted, via twitter, I had attended the @SCSpikes #NFTClassic. Asked me if I was into #NFTs, he is. No. I'm not. I'm like #baseball. Why? Three Reasons. I was asked by them to post my response.
1 - #Crypto/#Blockchain, like all complex mathematics fascinates me. I love it from a technical perspective, AND have worked on two functional commercial applications. But as an operational Day2Day transactional currency? It is loony-tunes impossible to make it pencil.
I was hired by a major credit card company to write a think piece on a 100% of the annual transaction and settlements. One major credit card company on blockchain by year 5 would consume 12% of the world's electrical generation. That alone...is nuts.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 24, 2022
A 3rd 🧵(and probably final) on the #Dmitrievsky #chemicalplant explosion and fire. I spoke with two former team members who have worked at plants like this in the US, and was introduced to a new friend who did a site visit/QC/Process Inspection at this plant in 2012.
All three are not twitter people. All three work in the industry. One at F100 firm, the others at smaller chem-firms. All have read my summary and agree it is fair. They also, like me, are sort of surprised at the level of interest here on this subject. Nice for folks to care.
First - this is very large facility and looking at @Maxar images together we agree it is badly damaged, but not destroyed. The shipment, storage and blending facilities seem intact, but the fire has clearly destroyed one of - perhaps the - most important part of the plant.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 23, 2022
A 2nd 🧵to provide context on the #Dmitrievsky #Chemical Plant, where it fits in the supply/value chain impacts it could have on that value chain. I will do a 3rd on the damage at this specific plant after getting input from friends who know this plant / type of plant
1st, thanks to all the readers who took an interest in my first reaction thread, and for the many questions that came in. 2nd this fire will not end #RussianWarCrimes or the attack on #Ukraine. It causes a large and long(?) disruption for multiple defense industry suppliers.
This plant was not a primary refinery. Those are the massive facilities which take raw crude oil or gas-Liquids mostly from huge pipelines and do first fractions. These huge plants then send traincar loads of first cuts to many places, including plants like #Dmitrievsky
Read 11 tweets

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