Thread by @RobotDefi

Recently I shared how I spent days developing a #cryptotrading strategy that failed. It was not the first one either.

But many asked for me to explain what I did and why it failed.

So here’s some insight into how I develop my #degen strategies.

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If threads aren’t your thing, I actually wrote it out into a Medium article:

medium.com/@Defi_Robot/de…

But here’s the Cliff’s notes

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First, it’s important to understand where I come from.

In a nutshell, I’m a marketer with a focus on behavioral economics.

Meaning, I recognize humans act in predictable ways. These behaviors can be identified in price charts.

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Also, effective marketers rigorously and regularly test strategies to find and optimize what works.

This is also effective for those who wish to actively trade.

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I’ve gone over this in a previous thread, but here are the steps to testing…
1. Back-test (see if it would’ve worked in the past)
2. Paper trade (see if it would work now with hypothetical money)
3. Experiment trade (use a tiny bag to test)

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https://twitter.com/robotdefi/status/1511834023676497924

My first fail was #AutoStaking #TITANOfork

I found a site (Titanoforks.com) that lists them and backtested a $100 per fork strategy “investing” in each one starting from the beginning.

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The numbers worked out great. With $1000 “invested” in 10 protocols, even with 4 rugs, within two weeks the total investment would’ve grown to over $1600.

The next step was to paper trade in real time.

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I never made it to experimental trades, however, because the typical buyer behavior has changed.

Whereas before there were predictable price pumps early on, now many tank below presale prices on launch day.

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I modified the strategy to get in after a correction but discovered two things:

1. Forks become fads, and when they do most start to fade rapidly after that.

2. Passive income projects are extremely impacted by overall market downturns.

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Fail #2 was Tomb Forks

After discovering WhattheFork.xyz I went looking for patterns again.

I noticed the forked TSHARE tokens saw a huuuuge pump of 1000% plus within 6 hours of going live. This happened 99% of the time.

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This seemed like a huge win until I realized the launch dates on the site were not the go live dates.

Most of the protocols were either having private sales or bootstrapping liquidity beforehand. The price action happened then, not after public launch.

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I learned from this that being early only helps if your data is accurate and you really ARE early.

Most likely an aggregate site isn’t going to provide you with that #alpha

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I also learned that just being early doesn’t always guarantee success. As each asset type has its own set of behaviors.

The key is to learn the behaviors and time your entries/exits.

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Finally, while behavior is predictable, humans have many. And it’s impossible to know exactly which ones will win out in any given moment.

So…back to the drawing board.

Test, assess, test some more.

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