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May 1 • 5 tweets • 4 min read
The clash of long-term #bitcoin price models - Weekly update (May 1, 2022). Model projections for yesterday's $BTC closing price:

- Power law: $37K
- HODL: $38K
- $BTC: $38K
- DPC: $40K
- RS2FO: $75K
- Exp growth: $75K
- RMA730: $78K
- S2F: $81K
- LCONT: $120K ImageImage
Time span of charts: 16 years & 5 years

Yesterday's $BTC closing price & respective model multiples (projected model price ÷ price of #bitcoin) are shown on the 2nd chart. Best fit is by the HODL model (orange dash dot curve): 0.996 * $BTC was projected for yesterday's close.
Models included:

- Power law: Log-log growth
- HODL: Inverse Hyperbolic Tangent
- DPC: Dynamic Power Cycle
- RS2FO: Raised Stock-to-FOMO
- Exp. growth: Constant annual return
- RMA730: Raised 730-day moving ave.
- S2F: Stock-to-Flow
- LCONT: Life Cycle of New Technology
Model proponents:

- Power law: @hcburger1
- HODL: @therationalroot
- DPC: @DeFi_initiate
- RS2FO: @w_s_bitcoin
- Exp growth: @TechDev_52
- RMA730: @PositiveCrypto
- S2F: @100trillionUSD
- LCONT: @jclcapital
Dive further into models and predictions: bitcoineconomics.io/charts.html by @BitcoinEcon

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More from @DeFi_initiate

DFi Profile picture
Feb 21
We need a #profitable investment strategy. When it comes to #bitcoin, this task seems very simple: just hold and number will go up. This maxi view advocates a constant buying strategy commonly called dollar (or unit) cost averaging (#DCA/UCA). But is this the best we can do? 🧵 9 Image
1. The annual chart above shows that, indeed, #number just keeps going up. What about those red candles though? Can we avoid losing money in the red years? Is there a #pattern to them?

The losses can be significant (56-73%) so it would be good to know what to do in those years.
2. The simple answer is that the #red candles repeat every 4 years (the 1st one is an exception: it came 1 year late late due to a lack of #bitcoin market for the first 1.5 years).

Why every 4 years? Because that's the length of the block subsidy #halving cycle (vertical lines).
Read 10 tweets
DFi Profile picture
Feb 16
Many #Americans are led to believe that there are only two sides to a question. This way of thinking goes back to the times before the civil war (1861-65), when the two major political parties had already formed.

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In other western democracies, a plurality of parties is the norm: there are typically 3 or 4 major parties and a large number of others: Japan 3, Germany 3, UK 4, France 3, Italy 4.

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False dichotomy leads to a polarization of views and gives rise to movements on the extreme left and right. How is it possible, that every federal election goes right down to the wire on a 50-50 split?

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DFi Profile picture
Feb 16
The vast majority of CT is misunderstanding the #Canadian situation. The simple fact is that the #convoys have nothing to do with #freedom or peaceful #protests.

First off: the #EmergenciesAct is not martial law and is not above the law.

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The protesters are a fringe #rightwing #minority group, partly supported by the American #extreme right.

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#Sabotaging the delivery of food and medical #supplies, blocking the movement of #international goods and services, holding up ambulances and firetrucks, preventing people from getting to #work - these are #criminal activities and not peaceful protests.
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DFi Profile picture
Feb 10
Here is a hard question for #bitcoin maxis (and plebs):

Why will we end up with 21 million coins in the end?

You think this is easy? Let's see... 🧵 of 21 👇
1. We all know the easy answer: because in its first halving cycle, #bitcoin created 10.5 million coins (50 block subsidy coins * 210,000 blocks), and half that in the next, etc. After a number of cycles, we will have close to 21 million coins.

But I'm asking why, not how.
2. Let's dig in. #Satoshi was (partly) a coder, so he was obsessed with the powers of 2. Many generations of computers have been built on these powers: 8 / 16 / 32 and 64-bit computing and operating systems - to mention just the most obvious.
Read 23 tweets
DFi Profile picture
Feb 7
#Bitcoin DPC Model - The Collection
It's about time someone collected all the relevant tweets...

🧵 of 7
1. Initial post with description:
2. Final implementation of original vision (30 Jan 2022):
Read 9 tweets
DFi Profile picture
Feb 6
Building the DPC Model, Part IV
Adjusting the projection line to the diminishing effect of #bitcoin's halving cycle

🧵 of 11

Part I:
Part II:
Part III:
1. Latest weekly model update:
DPC model background:
2. The final adjustment to the projection line takes care of the diminishing effect of the halving cycle. The impact of the halving cycle was discussed in Part II. Why is this effect decreasing, and when will it disappear?
Read 14 tweets

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