1. New county-level #risk indicators released by @CDCgov last night.
Here's your look at weekly #transmission levels since Feb 24.
After looking much better in March, we're continuing to see rates of newly reported cases increasing in most US regions.
2. But, as has been the case for a while, when basing risk level on #hospitalization rates and hospital capacity, at least visually, the story is very different.
3. This shows CHANGE in each metric yesterday compared to 1 week prior. Many more places worsening than improving.
14% of the population worsened on the hospital-based measure; only 1% improved.
23% of the population worsened on the transmission-based measure; only 6% improved.
4. Nearly 80% of people live in a county classified as #substantial or #high community transmission, up from 46% 4 weeks prior.
Also, now nearly 1 in 4 people live in a county classified as #medium or #high risk on the hospital-based metric, up from only 3% 4 weeks prior.
5. Here's that same figure (changing risk level over time) by state. This is the #hospital-based measure.
84% of the population in Florida still resides in a county classified as a "low level".
6. And here's that same figure (changing risk level over time) by state. This is the #transmission-based measure.
Northeast speaks for itself, but Florida now has 93% of its population in a substantial or high transmission area over the past week.
1. Here are trends in new confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations among adults, by state, since March 1, 2022.
The number within each state cell is the % change in the past week.
Lots of ⬆️ recently.
2. Here's some specifics for #Florida hospitalizations.
Although numbers remain low relative to other times during the pandemic, we're now seeing more new adult admissions per day than we have in the past 2 mo.
Inpatient COVID census increasing, but more slowly (a good thing).
3. Here are trends in new reported COVID-19 cases, by state, since March 1, 2022.
The number within each state cell is the % change in the past week.
Note: each state has an independent y-axis to better visualize state-specific trends (NOT OPTIMAL TO COMPARE STATES).
Let's start with county-level: 1. community transmission & 2. hospital utilization for COVID
⬇️is a map of both indicators
- Levels on ⬅️
- Transmission on ➡️
Top portion is for THIS WEEK (Apr 14)
Bottom portion is for LAST WEEK (Apr 7)
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As you can see, the primary areas of concern are in the Northeast, where we are seeing high transmission, which is even resulting in the tough-to-move county levels to "medium"
And hospitalizations increasing in NY are causing some counties to enter the "high" level
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Where we stand at the county level as of April 14
Community levels
- 2980 (94.8%) low
- 150 (4.8%) medium
- 12 (0.4%) high
Community transmission
- 852 (27.1%) low
- 1491 (47.5%) moderate
- 415 (13.2%) substantial
- 380 (12.1%) high
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As BA.2 looms, @CDCgov updated their Community Levels metric yesterday and I also obtained and linked the older Community Transmission metric data.
Below is a reflection of where we were yesterday in terms of "risk level" using each metric and the CDC's color scheme for each
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And here's how counties and the US population living in those counties are distributed according to those two measures as of March 17, and based on data from the most recent 7 day window.
LEFT - new measure
RIGHT - old measure
Some big differences.
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Here's a more direct comparison between how a county would be classified under the old vs. new measure.
Blue shades indicate the new measure has LOWER risk
Orange/red shades indicate the new measure has HIGHER risk
Working on a pull for the @COVKIDProject, using the @CDCgov restricted dataset, with individual data for 63 million #COVID cases.
But what is going on with...
1. CASE UNDERREPORTING 2. DEATH UNDERREPORTING 3. DEATH OVERREPORTING?
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1. CASE UNDERREPORTING
Even at this point in the pandemic, there are MANY states who have barely reported any cases for this database (or for some reason, they are not making it in).
WV has about 2% of their cases in this dataset, MS about 8%, TX about 13%.
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Below is a direct comparison of the most recent versions of the @CDCgov county level risk indicators for:
- Community Transmission (old measure)
- Community Levels (new measure)
At the bottom is the difference in county classification, by measure.
Back to this in a sec
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I'm going to show a monthly animation of the old Community Transmission indicator, but let me orient you to what will be going on in the animation, other than the county-level map.
At top right will be the epidemic curve (7-day moving average cases) for the entire US.
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At the bottom right will be the distribution of transmission levels (low, moderate, substantial, high) across all counties. For ex, nearly all counties were "high" last winter, during the delta surge, and this winter.
An arrow will show you where we're at in the animation.