Erik Zimerman Profile picture
May 7 4 tweets 3 min read
It is not only the #Yampil front advancing on the #Russian side, but the operational pause on the #Izum front seems to be over, as heavy attacks continue from that direction. Pressure is being maintained on #Ukraine on the eastern front itself, & around the axis for a big, medium
and small encirclement. This is an effort to collapse #Ukrainian defenders. If they reposition to stop encirclements, their front can collapse. At the same time, even if they reposition, they are never sure which route #Russia is taking. The downside for #Russia is manpower,
of course, it is in very short supply as it is and it cannot concentrate it in one knockout effort, but with strategic surprise being so impossible in this internet age and level of coverage, combined with the slow advance speeds, RU is probably correct that advancing on multiple
fronts at the same time, and reinforcing success, while keeping pressure everywhere is likely the correct strategy in the east and #Donbass. A strategy I assumed earlier it would take due to the expected nature of pincer movement.

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More from @ZimermanErik

May 8
Now that #Popasna has fallen & the #Siverskyi Donets has been crossed, #Russia is poised to finish the first dramatic encirclement of the war. Any UA troops not falling back to at least the Bakhmut-Siversk line & better the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line will be surrounded. Image
They cannot withdraw too fast, & without holding the line because then the front will collapse into a rout, as the RU forces press from the east. Remains to be seen if we see a collapse or an orderly withdrawal but question first is which route #Russia will take?
In general it will continue to take the path of least resistance. It will bypass major roads, fortifications & cities when possible. However it will also be bound by roads and the rail lines in its strategy not only for its own supply but also to cut it off from the #Ukrainians.
Read 18 tweets
May 8
The #Biden administration, #EU and much of the elite in the West think that that they are using #Ukrainian blood to weaken #Russia.

Just some central bank stimulus, money out of thin air, providing support & weapons to #Ukraine whose soldiers will do the actual fighting.
Some may even see parallels, in how American industry supported the Soviet destruction of the Wehrmacht. The Russians provided the endless blood to win WWII. If not they at least cynically use the #Ukraine media craze, built on illogical conclusions derived from false premises
to leverage their uninformed citizens' good will (or shallow need to virtue signal) to meet their strategic geopolitical ends. If a whole lot of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers die in the process, perhaps all the better they say.
Read 23 tweets
May 8
Serhyi wants to live, as he should and as we all. But he whines about rules that he himself has broken. Except he seems to refer to them as if they meant there could never be war (since there are documents with seals on them), and yet he is a Marine. Who would need him then?
He begs for the soldiers of other states to save him. He can live (if he is not a hostage of #Azov as well that is). He can come out with his arms up. That is more than much of the world offers its enemies, & more than his compatriots in many instances offered their Russian foes.
But yes, without human shields, that he should have never had, he can either fight, or surrender. The choice all soldiers in war have, especially when their enemy surrounds them. As a Marine he should know that and stop speaking about reality TV shows...
Read 5 tweets
May 8
#Azovstal's defenders are now increasingly desperate. Especially the deputy battalion commander who now goes by 36th Marine Brigade commander Serhyi Volyna who just hours ago released the following. This because #Ukraine has announced that there are no more women, children or ImageImage
elderly at #Azovstal. Note that they still refrain from saying "civilians". So #Azov & friends still hide behind civilians, but they just are no longer women, children or elderly. Still, that protection is far reduced & so they fear the potentially incoming #Russian onslaught.
From #Russia's perspective, one could think it may simply act as if there are no longer any civilians at #Azovstal since they are presumably just fighting age men (not children, not elderly) of the enemy. If they won't release them, then they better arm them too. The issue is
Read 9 tweets
May 7
It has been evident that #Ukraine is up to something around #SnakeIsland. It had previously damaged or sunk two RU patrol boats at the cost of several air assets such as TB2s. Since it's fight is always foremost a propaganda one, it makes sense that they would assault the island.
It was one of the opening acts of the war, and like Israel wanting to regain the Hermon during the Yom Kippur War, you could see #Ukraine wanting to retake it militarily even at a high cost. It is also in the west, where Ukr can employ some of its western-donated weapons,
rather than watch their forces in the east get pushed back and encircled. Retaking an island would be a media circus and buy #Ukraine more international support. They must keep up the appearance that they can win to keep receiving (and increase) support.
Read 5 tweets
May 7
Gleb's profile was already only visible after a warning from Twitter which indicated he could think for himself and had a different opinion than Twitter. Which is not something encouraged currently on the platform. Now Gleb's account is gone completely. Imagine that even in a war
Imagine that even in a war, when dialogue and understanding the opposing parties' perspective is even of more crucial importance... it is often only mutual respect, dialogue and diplomacy that can stand in the way of savagery, destruction & violence.
Regarding on ongoing war, being able to hear different viewpoints is not only not a bad idea nor "disinformation" but even more critical to a healthy society (certainly for peace) than the ability to hear them during peacetime. Gleb Bazov's account was one of very few that
Read 5 tweets

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