3/6 Europe has made progress in filling up its gas storages as the weather has been getting warmer and less gas is used for heating. Current EU-27 gas storage level has reached 39.48% as of May 15th compared to 26% as of April 26th. Source: agsi.gie.eu
4/6 For now gas is still flowing into storage at a steady pace. This could be from other sources outside the interrupted Ukraine pipeline but it not easy to tell. The goal remains to fill up storage to 80% by October to get ready for the next winter.
5/6 A closer look at Germany shows that the trend is similar to the average of the last 4 years but from a lower absolute level.
6/6 From April 26th to May 15th Europe has added an additional 14% of storage capacity. At the current pace Europe would need another 14 weeks or just over 3 months to bring storage capacity to 80%. We shall see if the pace continues.
Stock market decline of 30 to 40% in isolation most likely won't cause a FED pivot. Financial (in)-stability the main potential driver for a FED pivot. Watch the US $. #FederalReserve #inflation #NASDAQ
2/13 "Don't fight the FED" is investment advise with a lot of muscle memory. Over the last three decades stock market investors have gotten used to the FED coming to the rescue when markets are down 20+ %.
3/13 Greenspan 1997/Long Term Capital Management, Greenspan again 2001/Internet Bubble, Bernanke 2008/Great Financial Crisis and Powell in 2019/Repo Crisis are prime examples. While the S&P is not quite down 20% from its peak, the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 are already there.
1/10 Germany ready to support EU ban on Russian oil.
Dependency on Russian oil imports cut from 34% to 12%.
German daily oil bill to Russia has now been reduced from US $ 74.8 mil to 26.4 mil (assuming US $ 100 per bbl). #Oil #Germany #Russia dw.com/en/germany-rea…
2/10 German Economics Minister Habeck presented the 2nd report on Energy Security on May 2nd 2022. In regards to oil he reported that crude oil imports from Russia have been reduced to 12% of all German oil imports (from about 34% before the Ukraine invasion). @BMWK
3/10 Germany's oil consumption in 2020 was around 2.045 mil bbl/day (the year Covid hit) or about 695,000 bbl/day imported from Russia (34%).
2/6 Poland (40%) and Bulgaria (77%) have traditionally been dependent on Russian Gas (numbers are from 2020 and are estimated somewhat higher for 2021).
3/6 Both countries have planned well ahead. Poland is opening a gas link with Lithuania in May and the Baltic Pipe connecting to Norway is planed to be operational in October.
2/5 E Macron won the French election and is reelected as French President for 5 years. R Golob won in Slovenia and will become the new Prime Minister. Both opponents Le Pen in France and Jansa (current PM) in Slovenia are Euro Sceptics.
3/5 The focus in this round of EU elections was on France. However the change of Government in Slovenia further isolates V Orban (won reelection in early April 2022) in the EU 27. EU policy formulation and enforcement has become easier.
1/9 Are Currencies pegged to the US $ such as the Hong Kong $ or Saudi Riyal an opportunity for a short? I favor the Middle East currencies as shorts over Hong Kong due to global oil consumption dynamics (see my thread dated March 27th). #HongKong #SaudiArabia #Oil #USD
2/9 On April 20th I wrote a thread about the arguments for and against the demise of the US $ as the global reserve currency. No matter where you come down on this, there is an additional dynamic for currencies pegged to the US $. Political and oil related.
3/9 The 2 most prominent of the pegged currencies are the Hong Kong $ and the Saudi Riyal. Here is a more comprehensive list from a paper by H. Zheng medium.com/sophonexchange… from May 29th 2019.
(2) Here is the forecast from the Energy Information Agency (eia.gov) from late 2021 (Chart by @GregorMacdonald ):
(3) Post Ukraine invasion the EIA on March 16th 2022 lowered its forecast by 1 million barrel per day which is below the 2019 peak. I expect more downward revisions to come.