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Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
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May 19 β€’ 9 tweets β€’ 6 min read
1/ On March 28 I made a thread on the top 10 reasons why we are in a bear market using stablecoin charts.

The only divergent signals (opposing this view) were from #UST & #USDT.

What happened since?

#UST went to 0 & #USDT lost $9 bil in mcap.

Next πŸ‘‡

2/ All reputable stablecoin mcaps were falling (#USDC, #DAI, #LUSD), except UST and USDT.

USDT has now corrected this divergence and is falling in the trend (pic).

UST was not so fortunate and crashed to 0 with more algo stables following the same trend: #USDN, #DEI.

Next πŸ‘‡
3/ UST did not have the backing to account for its mcap, hence it went to 0.

Why so bad? Because of a death spiral:

Buy 1 UST, burn it for Luna, sell Luna for $1. With $18 bil UST to burn for Luna, this crashed Luna's price to 0 and UST followed soon after.

Next πŸ‘‡
4/ The burn mechanism for UST/Luna was stopped as it was just destroying any value that was left.

Now they are proposing a hard fork and a new chain for Terra.

The damage is done.

What is worse, many protocols/start-ups were plugged into Anchor for that free yield.

Next πŸ‘‡
5/ They lost all users' funds & now the users are suing.

They promised 15% return on your money while behind the scene they just dropped it in Anchor and skimmed the difference.

A great business plan, right, RIGHT?

So what are the lessons here? πŸ‘‡

6/

1. Spot divergences, when the stablecoin market was crashing & UST was pumping that was a warning sign

2. There is no free money, value has to come from somewhere

3. Prices, charts, mcaps will ALWAYS return to the main trend, look at USDT

Next πŸ‘‡

7/ If you want to read my original thread in full, here it is. πŸ‘‡

Want to read a guide on stablecoins? See next. πŸ‘‡

8/ Stablecoin guide, how to spot quality. πŸ‘‡

Finally, see the last tweet πŸ‘‡

9/ If you liked this thread, #retweet the first post to get more of this content in the future! 😍

Stay in touch + follow @DU09BTC:

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More from @DU09BTC

Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
May 9
There is $100 mil in Curve left to exit from UST.

Binance bids at $0.98 are being replenished with $10-20 mil every few min.

So far their defense looks solid.

Unlikely Do Kwon pockets can absorb hundreds of millions of sales per hour.

That is money he is losing/hour.
Ok, they ran out of money already, lol.
They refilled it. I suspect they may start selling Luna if they run out of cash... Luna is under $50 already... wtf.
Read 4 tweets
Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
May 9
1/ Time to dispel the myths around #Terra / #Luna / #UST once & for all!

Is it decentralized? Is UST a stablecoin? Is it #SAFU?

What are the alternatives???

Are you with me?

Here's the thread you've been waiting for. πŸ‘‡
2/ Before I debunk the most important myths about Terra, I suggest you check my earlier thread on this to understand the context better.

Ready? Let's start with myth number 1. πŸ‘‡

3/ Myth number 1:

🚨 "Terra / Luna / UST is decentralized."

Verdict: FALSE ❌

I can explain, lets's look at the Terra / Luna network first and then UST. πŸ‘‡
Read 21 tweets
Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
Apr 18
1/ You no longer have to trust anon FUD on Twitter about #UST

You can now trust the well respected Wall Street Journal @WSJ

Here are the key points in their article that should raise your eyebrows. πŸ‘€

UST is on a thin line as its founder fights the SEC in court.

A thread πŸ‘‡
2/ Exhibit 1:

"A new breed of cryptocurrencies is seeking to replicate the stability of the dollar. But critics say they are a disaster waiting to happen."

They mean #UST and DAI+BUSD/Paxos fudding UST.

Next πŸ‘‡
3/ Exhibit 2:

"...algorithmic stablecoins aren’t necessarily backed by any assets at all. Instead they rely on financial engineering to maintain their link to the dollar. Some have failed, saddling investors with losses."

Is UST backed? Nope.

Next πŸ‘‡
Read 16 tweets
Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
Apr 15
1/ Time to look at the main stablecoins, including people's favorite #UST which looks rather weak.

There is one undisputed winner, despite any criticism.

The reason? Adoption, liquidity, and volume.

The rest are kings in their niche. A thread πŸ‘‡

#USDT #USDC #BUSD #DAI #UST Image
2/ Ranking by market cap is easy (see pic), but that barely says anything.

What is more important is volume and where this volume comes from!

Let's do a ranking by 7-day volume divided by mcap.

See next tweet for the results. πŸ‘‡ Image
3/ WoW look at that #UST adoption... barely any. Even DAI looks better.

1. #USDT = 4.78 (392 bil volume / 82 bil mcap)
2. #BUSD = 1.59 (27 / 17)
3. #USDC = 0.58 (29 / 50)
4. #DAI = 0.28 (2.5 / 9)
5. #UST = 0.20 (3.4 / 17)

Clearly, USDT and BUSD are in their own class.

Why? πŸ‘‡
Read 18 tweets
Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
Apr 12
1/ Daily Anchor Yield Reserve Update. A thread. 🧡

65 days left. 😱

Important poll in tweet #4.

Link for more juicy details at the end of this thread. πŸ‘‡
2/ On track to hit 0.
3/ The total TLV in Anchor is falling by a few billions.

I wonder what caused it?

#Luna's price crashing maybe? πŸ˜…
Read 6 tweets
Duo Nine | YCC Profile picture
Apr 9
🚨 1/ Have Terra #UST & #Luna topped?

The UST market cap is giving me top signals (see pic).

Since UST & Luna are basically the same things with different labels, you need to be careful!

Particularly when #BTC is flashing a major bear signal!

Here's my update, a thread. πŸ‘‡ Image
2/ Let's start with UST & why you want UST growth to continue at all costs

A falling UST mcap = more Luna minted = Luna sold = Luna crash

Basically the pump cycle, but now in reverse. This is a big NO-NO for Terra.

Let's look at Luna next πŸ‘‡

3/ With the price now firmly under $100, Luna's uptrend is over.

What makes this worse is that #BTC is not giving much hopium right now.

If BTC falls under $40k, altcoins will be in HUGE trouble.

See next for a #BTC overview. πŸ‘‡

Read 10 tweets

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