Thread by @ChiCouncilFP

🧵Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has swiftly changed the security landscape of Europe. And as our own @ckafura lays out in @Diplomat_APAC, the war has also opened up a debate in Japan. For #ThreadThursday, we take a look at that debate:

bit.ly/3lbz4NX

The war in #Ukraine has prompted a much different reaction from Japan than past international crises. Since February, #Japan has imposed broad and escalating economic #sanctions on Russia in coordination with G-7 allies. foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan…

The stronger Japanese response to this crisis is not solely driven by policymakers, but also by the public’s reaction to the war in Ukraine. In @nikkei polling, 61% favored sanctioning #Russia– 2x what polls found after Russia annexed #Crimea in 2014 📊⬇️

What explains the Japanese public’s stronger reaction to this crisis?

At the core, the basic rationale of Russia’s invasion—in Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s phrasing, a “unilateral change to the status quo by force”—hits far too close to home for many Japanese.

In particular, large majorities in several polls say they are concerned that Russia’s invasion will set a precedent for how #China resolves its own territorial disputes, both with Japan over the Senkakus and over #Taiwan.
vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/c…

With a war for territorial conquest raging in Europe, and fears of consequences close to home, the Japanese public is considering changes:

64% support strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities
55% favor aiming at a future defense spending level of 2 percent of Japan’s GDP.

But there are still limits the public isn't yet willing to cross.

They remain split on acquiring the ability to strike enemy bases (46% favor and oppose, per @Yomiuri_Online), similar to before war broke out.
yomiuri.co.jp/election/yoron…

And unlike in #SouthKorea, where majorities support a domestic nuclear program and the deployment of US weapons, the 🇯🇵 public still backs the three non-nuclear principles of not possessing, producing or permitting the introduction of #nuclearweapons ☢️
thechicagocouncil.org/research/publi…

Nor does the public see revising the 75-year-old Peace Constitution as a top priority. But the public is open to a debate: 72% say there should be a concrete discussion in the Diet on constitutional revision: vdata.nikkei.com/newsgraphics/c…

How will that debate play out? As @observingjapan wrote last week, the public's fears of a war close to home could create an opening for a real shift in Japanese policy, if PM Kishida can navigate what has always been a tricky set of problems: observingjapan.substack.com/p/constitution…

That debate comes as a critical time for Japan’s security policy. Kishida’s government is currently in the process of revising Japan’s National Security Strategy (NSS) for the first time since 2013 to reflect Japan's more precarious security environment.

If @kishida230 can transform Japanese defense policy the way his German counterpart has, we at the Crown Center will be here to report on it - and how the public responds. And to be sure you get our latest analyses, sign up for our monthly newsletter! ⬇️ bit.ly/3GpvyIK