Thread by @SAMRIReports

UN Report: The foremost division within the #Taliban is between moderate & hardline blocs. The moderate bloc consists of Mullah Baradar, Abbas Stanekzai, Padshah Khan & Shahabuddin Delawar who believe the Taliban must integrate with foreign partners.

daccess-ods.un.org/access.nsf/Get…

The hardline bloc consists of Hassan Akhund and other senior leaders from #Kandahar. It takes a more ideological view of jihad and sharia, with less emphasis on international relations. Haqqani Network is independent from either bloc, closer to the hardliners but pragmatic.

#Kandahari (Durrani) #Taliban are in the ascendancy among the Taliban’s leadership. This hierarchy has taken shape at the expense of non-Pashtun groups within the Taliban.

Following the #Taliban takeover, the Haqqani Network moved quickly to secure control of key ministries: interior, intelligence, passports and migration. Haqqani Network has also become the best militarily equipped faction and controls the security of the capital #Kabul.

Nonetheless, there has been pushback against the Haqqanis. During the March jirga in Kandahar, it emerged the Haqqanis had expected an endorsement of Sirajuddin’s elevation to Deputy Prime Minister. This did not materialize.

Sirajuddin Haqqani has ostensibly developed a reasonable understanding with Mullah Yaqub, particularly in their mutual opposition to Mullah Baradar. This is seen, however, as more an alliance of convenience than conviction.

Haqqani Network was not assessed to share any links, other than possibly at the local, lower levels, with ISKP. Following the Taliban takeover in Aug 2021 and escalation of ISKP attacks, there was no longer room for ambiguity in the Taliban’s strategic confrontation with ISKP.

Haqqani Network is still regarded as having the closest links to Al-Qaida. On 31 August 2021, one day after US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Al-Qaida celebrated the Taliban’s perseverance and renewed its allegiance to Hibatullah Akhundzada as “leader of the faithful”.

Al-Qaida enjoys greater freedom under the #Taliban regime, but its operational capability is limited. It is unlikely to mount or direct attacks outside Afghanistan for the next year or two, owing to both a lack of capability and Taliban restraint.

TTP has benefitted the most of all the foreign extremist groups in Afghanistan from the Taliban takeover. It has 3,000 to 4,000 fighters. Jaish-i-Mohammed (JiM) and Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LeT) have few hundred fighters in Afghanistan.

#Deobandi militant outfit Jaish-i-Mohammed (JiM) in Afghanistan is led by Qari Ramzan and maintains 8 training camps in #Nangarhar, 3 of which are directly under Taliban control.

In October 2021, LeT leader, Mawlawi Assadullah, met with Taliban Deputy Interior Minister Noor Jalil. In January 2022, a Taliban delegation visited LeT training camp in Haska Mena district of Nangarhar. LeT maintains three camps in Kunar and Nangarhar.

Former LeT members including Aslam Farooqi and Ejaz Ahmad Ahangar (a.k.a. Abu Usman al-Kashmiri) joined #ISKP.