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May 29 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
NEW | #Russian forces are assaulting #Severdonetsk and may succeed in taking the city and areas further west. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Severodonetsk is important because it is the last significant population center in #Luhansk Oblast that the #Russians do not control. Seizing it will let #Moscow declare that it has secured Luhansk fully but will give Russia no other significant military or economic benefit.
#Russian forces in #Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a #Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and #Belgorod.
#Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive near the #Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border approximately 70 km to the northeast of Kherson City that may have crossed the #Inhulets River.

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
May 28
NEW | Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of #Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian forces in #Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in #Izyum and southeast to advance on #Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days. Image
#Russian forces in #Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of #Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward #Bakhmut. Image
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 21
NEW | #Russian forces intensified efforts to encircle and capture #Severodonetsk on May 21 and will likely continue to do so in the coming days. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian troops in #Luhansk Oblast will likely move to capitalize on recent gains made in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Luhansk-Popasna arc to encircle and besiege #Severodonetsk—the final Ukrainian strongpoint in Luhansk Oblast.
#Russian troops are likely reinforcing their grouping around #Kharkiv City to prevent further #Ukrainian advances toward the international border.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 20
NEW | #Russian forces are likely preparing for #Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of #Popasna in order to continue their offensive on #Severodonetsk from the south.
#Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant as of May 20.
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 19
NEW | #Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian and proxy authorities in #Mariupol are struggling to establish coherent administrative control of the city. Image
The #Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) claimed to have encircled #Ukrainian troops in #Zolote and #Hirske. Image
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 12
NEW | #Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of Ukrainian troops along the #Izyum-#Slovyansk-#Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
It is unclear if #Russian forces can encircle, let alone capture, #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk even if they focus their efforts on that much-reduced objective.
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive around #Kharkiv is also forcing the #Russian command to make hard choices, as it was likely intended to do.
Read 5 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
May 11
NEW | #Russian forces did not make any significant advances anywhere in #Ukraine on May 11, and Ukrainian forces took further ground northeast of #Kharkiv. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
The #Ukrainian counteroffensive north of #Kharkiv City has forced #Russian troops onto the defensive and has successfully alleviated artillery pressure on Kharkiv City.
#Russian forces continued efforts to encircle #Ukrainian positions in the #Severodonetsk-#Rubizhne-#Lysychansk area but did not make any confirmed advances.
Read 6 tweets

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