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Critical Threats Profile picture
@criticalthreats
Jun 2, 2022 • 5 tweets • 7 min read • Read on X
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NEW | #Russian forces continued to make incremental, grinding, and costly progress in eastern #Ukraine. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… Image
#Russian operations to advance on #Slovyansk from the southeast of #Izyum and west of #Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikely to do so in the coming days, as Russian forces continue to prioritize #Severodonetsk at the expense of other axes of advance. Image
#Russian forces continued assaults against #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk in order to claim full control of #Luhansk Oblast. Image
#Russian forces shelled residential districts of #Kharkiv City, #Tsyrkuny, #Chuhuiv, #Prudyanka, and #Mykhailivka in an attempt to maintain their positions to the north of Kharkiv City. Image
#Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern #Kherson Oblast pushed #Russian forces to the eastern bank of the #Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T2207 highway. Image

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More from @criticalthreats

Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 19
NEW | Russian and American officials met in Saudi Arabia for bilateral talks about the war in Ukraine on February 18, but Russia continues to display no indications that it is prepared to make any meaningful concessions on Ukraine as assessed by Western intelligence and US officials in line with ISW's longstanding assessment. (1/13)Image
Many recent Russian statements show that the Kremlin remains uninterested in engaging in good faith negotiations and retains his objective of destroying the Ukrainian state while the Kremlin has offered no public indication that it would materially compromise. (2/13)
Russia attempted to posture itself as on equal terms with the United States during the February 18 Russian-American talks in Saudi Arabia, focusing its official public rhetoric about the meeting on US-Russian relations and not the war in Ukraine. (3/13)
Read 13 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 19
NEW | Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)-Damascus Negotiations: A Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) commander stated that the SDF and the governing body in northeast Syria agreed to merge their forces into the Syrian Defense Ministry on February 17. There still appear to be several outstanding issues in negotiations between the SDF and the Syrian interim government, but both parties appear to be engaging with one another constructively. (1/4)Image
SDF Negotiating Position: SDF Commander Mazloum Abdi is under tremendous pressure from internal SDF rivals, external Kurdish rivals, longtime enemies, and his allies to integrate with the Damascus government. This pressure appears to be pushing the SDF to gradually moderate its demands. Abdi probably sees an opportunity to avoid a major conflict with Damascus and solidify his own position, though he presumably recognizes that integration with the Syrian army is fraught with risk given the outstanding issues regarding integration. (2/4)
Iraqi Financial System and Iranian-backed Militias: The Iraqi Central Bank reportedly banned five local banks from US dollar transactions to combat money laundering and smuggling. The Iraqi Central Bank may have banned these banks under US pressure. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 18
NEW I The Kremlin reiterated its demands that Ukraine cede additional territory in eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and disband the Ukrainian military in the future while continuing to message that the Kremlin is unwilling to make territorial concessions itself in any future peace negotiations. 1/9Image
Lavrov and Nebenzya also categorically rejected European involvement in future peace negotiations and accused European countries of being aggressive toward Russia. 2/9
The Kremlin also appears to be resurrecting Putin's previous demands and information operations aimed at delegitimizing Ukraine and its government in the eyes of the West – notably ahead of the February 18 Russia-US bilateral meeting in Saudi Arabia. 3/9
Read 10 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Feb 7
NEW | Rwandan-backed M23 rebels declared a unilateral “humanitarian” ceasefire in the eastern DRC ahead of peace talks scheduled for February 7 and 8.

M23 already broke the ceasefire, however, and a long-term political solution remains unlikely. 1/6Image
Image
A long-term peace agreement is unlikely as the DRC still refuses to negotiate with M23, M23 and Rwanda still hold a military advantage to push for their maximalist demands, and there is not unanimous confidence in the regional blocs (EAC & SADC) as impartial mediators. 2/6
The DRC, M23, and Rwanda may be open to short-term ceasefires, however, as they seek to reset and set conditions for future offensives.

Both M23 and FARDC have used previous pauses in fighting to reset militarily and launch new offensives. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 18
NEW I Both Iranian-backed Iraqi militias and the Houthi movement ceased military operations against Israel after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, which underscores that the October 7 War was a regional conflict between Iran and its Axis of Resistance and Israel. 1/7 Image
The Prime Minister’s office said that the ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages should start at 0900 ET on January 19 after the Israeli cabinet approved the ceasefire on January 17. 2/7
The opening attacks by the Houthis, the Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, and Hezbollah were de-facto declarations of war against Israel that escalated and regionalized the war. Israel responded to these attacks to defend itself. 3/7
Read 8 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Jan 17
NEW | Canadian gold mining company Barrick Gold temporarily suspended mining operations in Mali, and Russia is poised to fill any potential void. 1/6 🇲🇱🇨🇦🇷🇺Image
Barrick’s decision is the result of a multiyear Russian-supported campaign to extract more money from Western mining companies and possibly pressure them out of Mali entirely. 2/6
The Malian government and Barrick had been at odds after both parties failed to agree on a restructured contract after Mali reformed its mining code in 2023 to secure a bigger share of mining revenue. 3/6
Read 6 tweets

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