#Russian operations to advance on #Slovyansk from the southeast of #Izyum and west of #Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikely to do so in the coming days, as Russian forces continue to prioritize #Severodonetsk at the expense of other axes of advance.
#Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern #Kherson Oblast pushed #Russian forces to the eastern bank of the #Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T2207 highway.
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NEW | An SDF delegation met with the leader of HTS to negotiate “military issues” while SDF forces continued to fight Turkish-backed militias in northern Syria. (1/7)
The SDF is almost certainly both unable and unwilling to subordinate itself to the HTS-organized Defense Ministry at this time, given the organizational tasks implicit in that effort and the ongoing fighting with Turkish-backed forces. (2/7)
Reorganizing SDF formations under the HTS-organized Defense Ministry, regardless of whether or not the SDF formations are reflagged or reorganized, would probably require the SDF to break contact with the SNA. (3/7)
NEW I Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reiterated Russia's demand that Ukraine renounce its right to sovereignty and territorial integrity as a precondition to start peace talks, indicating that Russia is not interested in good faith negotiations. 1/9
The Kremlin appears to be prioritizing Russia's force generation requirements and domestic political stability over efforts to mitigate economic pressure and labor shortages going into 2025. 2/9
US President Joe Biden announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth $2.5 billion on December 30. 3/9
NEW | Several trends have placed Syria on a trajectory that is increasingly likely to lead to ethno-sectarian conflict. This most-dangerous scenario is not a foregone conclusion, however. 🧵 (1/8)
Some reports indicate that HTS-affiliated individuals have killed, arrested, and kidnapped Alawites and other Syrians for affiliation with the Assad regime. (2/8)
These incidents have taken place outside of formal and documented judicial processes, which may significantly heighten sectarian tension between the majority and empowered Sunni and the minority Alawites. (3/8)
NEW: Building Syria’s Army | Syrian armed groups agreed to “dissolve” themselves and merge under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.
This does not mean that Syrian opposition forces will answer to the Defense Ministry in practice, however. 🧵
It is not immediately clear what groups outside of HTS-led and SNA-led structures participated in the meeting, nor is it clear what concrete steps the groups agreed to as part of dissolving themselves and merging under the HTS-led Defense Ministry.
HTS will likely absorb the various armed groups and functionally reflag them as new Syrian army units as a way to ameliorate concerns about losing power among various leaders.
NEW I The Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS)-led Syrian interim government stated it will discuss mechanisms for disarming and dissolving the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces’ (SDF) with SDF leadership, according to unspecified SDF sources. 1/8
The sources cited by a Syrian journalist claimed that the interim government will avoid any negotiation to establish a decentralized system that grants some autonomy to Kurdish-governed areas. 2/8
HTS and Turkey have called for a unified Syrian state without federal regions, which CTP-ISW previously identified as implicitly demanding that the SDF disarm and cease to exist as an autonomous organization. 3/8
NEW | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed readiness to help Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) form a new political system in Syria. Erdogan said that Turkey could offer expertise and guidance to this end. 🧵 (1/7)
The SDF and SNA continued to clash along the lines of control in Aleppo Province on December 20. The head of the SDF media center reported “fierce clashes” on Qere Qozaq bridge, which spans the Euphrates River. (2/7)
The SDF deployed forces to clear towns of opposition forces east of Raqqa City on December 19. Local sources reported that opposition forces took control of Madan and five other nearby towns from the SDF. The SDF had seized these areas from the Assad regime on December 6. (3/7)