Last weekend, #Putin discussed with people close to him the concept of a gradual power transition and ways to ensure continuity when the regime leadership changes. The discussions did not remain an empty phrase, and the outlook has become increasingly clear 1/7
To Former #Russian President #Medvedev, despite all his recent efforts to portray himself as the main "hawk", #Putin is going to trivially dump him by offering him the post of ambassador to one of the countries of Southeast Asia 2/7
But before that, #Medvedev will have to play the role of a "scapegoat" and take the responsibility for the falling rating of the United #Russia party at the end of this autumn. By the end of this autumn, according to #Putin's plans, United Russia's rating will drop 3/7
Because of the drop, there will be a request for a new party leader, and all opinion polls will show that the people of #Russia will have a request for a female leader. In United Russia, there are certainly many worthy women who can lead the party of power 4/7
But #Putin's daughter, Katerina Tikhonova, should be the most worthy. Closer to the New Year, according to plans, Putin will announce early presidential elections, which will be held on March 26, 2023. Putin won't propose himself as a candidate & will support Dmitry Patrushev 5/7
Dmitry Patrushev, who now holds the post of Minister of Agriculture in the government, will be removed from the government to a neutral position before the presidential elections to reduce the risks to his rating because of the predicted crisis in the industry he heads 6/7
#Putin will remain the chairman of the State Council and the real leader of the country for as long as his deteriorating health will allow.
Of course, these are plans, but all the interlocutors of the president noted his determination this time to bring everything to the end 7/7
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#Putin held a meeting via videoconference with the participation of SVR Director Sergei Naryshkin, Foreign Minister Sergei #Lavrov, Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolai #Patrushev, FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov and several other people 1/9
Questions of foreign policy were discussed. In particular, #Putin lamented the refusal of the #Chinese comrades to help with the circumvention of sanctions. Initially, Putin had high hopes for Chinese help and had good reason to do so 2/9
The #Chinese leadership, even before the war, made it clear that assistance in circumventing sanctions, if any, would be fast and large-scale. But firstly, no one expected that the war would not go according to plan and #Ukraine would put up fierce and effective resistance 3/9
The rivalry between the #Kremlin "towers" is becoming more and more active in the information space. The "rat race" between Chairman of the State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin and First Deputy Chairman of the Senat Andrei Turchak is a vivid example of this 1/8
Volodin and Turchak are both members of "United #Russia", and although the disagreements between them are not connected to any internal party split, the ruling party will bear the negative consequences of these conflicts, which will not strengthen it 2/8
That's why, #Putin's inner circle has again started talking about the need for a consensual figure for the elites in the leadership of "United #Russia", who would unite and guarantee the current status quo and the continuity of power 3/8
#Putin's decision to facilitate the issuance of Russian passports in #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhya regions of #Ukraine isn't spontaneous. This decision has been on the table for at least 2 months and has been transformed & postponed given the objective situation on the front
1/10
Moreover, #Putin's plans for the annexation of several regions of #Ukraine to #Russia are a resolved matter and these plans are constantly discussed at closed-door meetings in various formats with the participation of the President
2/10
Now the main goal #Putin has set for the military is to reach the admin borders of #Donetsk & #Luhansk regions and, if possible, #Kherson & #Zaporizhzhya regions of Ukraine
3/10
Yesterday, #Putin received a report from #Patrushev. According to the authors of the report, more than 100 employees at the Foreign Ministry are "ready to repeat the deed of Boris Bondarev", the Permanent Rep. to the UN in Geneva, who resignated because of #UkraineRussianWar 1/5
Attached to the report is a list of more than 100 names of the Foreign Ministry employees, whom the authors with justification for each, consider willing "traitors". #Patrushev, who has long disliked #Lavrov, was delighted to present the report 2/5
Clearly, a mass exodus of Foreign Ministry officials at various levels is a serious blow to the country's international image, and if such a situation were to actually occur, the domestic political agenda, at least within the elites, would undergo a tectonic change
3/5
Starting from May 17, all reports to #Putin go through the Secretary of the #SecurityCouncil, #Patrushev. For most of the issues that require the permission or opinion of the president, the decision is now made personally by Patrushev and he informs Putin in his final report 1/5
Even the First Deputy Chief of the Presidential Administration, Sergei Kiriyenko, who traditionally has direct access to the #president, now reports to and receives assignments and recommendations from #Patrushev 2/5
Also, #Gerasimov, Putin's dismissed Chief of the General Staff, reported to #Patrushev yesterday, after telephone conversations with Mark Milley, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff. #Putin himself has held only two phone conversations personally since Tuesday 3/5
#Putin considers almost all political prisoners in Russia his hostages, an "exchange fund", an instrument to get even with the West. He is convinced that all independent political opponents of his regime are supervised by foreign, more often Western, intelligence services 1/6
All reports to #Putin on political opponents point to their links with the "Western partners". It's nonsense, but the authors of the reports, mostly from the security services, are well aware of what he wants to see and disregard the obvious discrepancies with the reality 2/6
#Putin truly believes that any politician or public figure in Russia who disagrees with his regime is a traitor who has been "bought" by the Western secret services. In his sick view of the world, repression of political opponents is a blow to Western positions 3/6