My model finds he’s been worth ~19 goals to #LFC vs if they had an average #PremierLeague GK!
Not only is his 1v1 stopping off the chart he’s performing above the expected level for an average #PL GK in every single aspect of goalkeeping!
#DeGea has a profile unlike any of the other big 6 GKs, while he is an awesome shot stopper who saved #MUFC ~10 goals more than if they had an avg #PremierLeague GK, his weak shot preventing & distribution means #MUFC concede far more chances than they would with an avg #PL GK!
#Ramsdale’s season was like #Arsenal’s very up & down but in the end pretty solid!
In the 1st half of the season his shot stopping was +9, while in the 2nd half his shot stopping was -3!
#AFC will be hoping that next year he will be far more consistent!
#Lloris was one of the unsung heroes of the season
The #THFC stopper was consistently a solid shot stopper & this season, while his distribution was weak, his sweeping was excellent, he frequently stopped big chances occurring due to his ridiculous speed off the line!
#Ederson is a classic example of how GKing has evolved!
His sweeping & distribution is excellent & facilitates the way #MCFC play however this year his substandard shot stopping in combination with #MCFC’s great defence means that his overall worth to #MCFC was just ~4 goals!
#Mendy is a very well rounded GK, his only consistent weaknesses are 1v1 stopping & penalty stopping, in all other areas he is good.
He started off the season in incredible form but by conceding a few weak goals in the final weeks he “only” ended up being worth ~6 goals to #CFC!
A full breakdown of each of the big 6 GKs in all aspects of GKing will be coming out over the summer!
While you wait check out the full summary article (goalkeeper.com/news-and-media…) plus all the great editorial pieces by @samhudspith24 including “the keepers’ call” free e-book!!
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His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier!
My model finds that if #DeGea had engaged the 1st touch the chance would’ve been 0.64 ExG because even though the 1v1 is quite far from goal engaging in that location would make the GK very vulnerable to the chip, sidefoot finish, and being rounded.
Engaging the 2nd touch, as #DeGea does, means the chance is actually 0.42 ExG as even though the 1v1 is closer to goal when the GK engages here there is usually very little space to exploit over, through, or round the GK!
Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!
The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals!
Shot Stopping:
#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!
The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score!
Shot Stopping:
His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:
1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus
2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron
3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki
They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake
The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand
It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!
The 1st goal was a mistake but I am way more concerned about the 2nd.
Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.
He was well positioned as he was stood on the line between the ball & the outside of the wall!
It was a good, but not unbelievable, save. My model finds such a FK gets saved ~50% of the time due to its low speed & distance from the post!
I’ve seen the save described on Twitter as both the save of the season & poor positioning followed by a slow recovery!
As usual the truth is between the two & I should make it clear here that saving a 50/50 shot is a lot closer to the save of the season than poor GKing!
I should add that #Ramsdale had a phenomenal game, saving 4 out of 4 1v1s!
Which is unreal!
If you run all the shots he faced through my model you find #Ramsdale saved #AFC in total 2.38 goals above average which in a 2-0 win means he literally won them the game!