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Jun 14 • 6 tweets • 5 min read
Not a good night for #Ramsdale!

The 4th goal summed it up!

-Engaged the 1v1 when it was 20yrd out & there was a CB covering making the finish far easier

-Using the smother technique rather than the spread technique making the chipped finish far more difficult to save

#ENGvHUN ImageImageImageImage
My 1v1 model shows that engaging 1v1s at distances greater than 14yrds from goal just makes the finishes easier rather than harder

The best GKs (like #Alisson) often wait deep & lure the striker in & then engage the ball once they know they can snuff out the shot!

#ENG #ENGvHUN
My 1v1 model also finds the smother to be very vulnerable when the 1v1 is central as it often allows the GK to be rounded or chipped plus it does very little to cover the side the GK does not have their hands!

A spread wouldn’t drastically increased the Rambos save probability!
If you are interested in the optimal strategies GKs should employ during 1v1s see the thread below:
This goal was very similar to the one he conceded vs #LFC.

It’s clearly an area of his game that he struggles with, it will be interesting to see if he can improve on this over the coming years given his age.

Both #AFC & #ENG will be hoping he becomes more patience during 1v1s!
As it’s twitter I think I should clarify:

I am not saying #Ramsdale is a poor GK I am just pointing out why the technical & tactical decisions he made yesterday made it easier for the strikers to score

GKing is hard & this analysis aims to improve peoples understanding of GKing

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More from @Jhdharrison1

John Harrison Profile picture
Jun 7
My 1st @goalkeeper_com piece:

How many goals were the big 6 GKs worth vs the avg #PL GK?

#Alisson was worth ~19 goals! What more does a GK have to do to get #POTY!

#DeGea was the best shot stopper but his weak shot prevention & distribution meant he was only worth ~3 goals!
#Ederson was the best distributer & his shot preventing was class but his below average shot stopping means his value is far below #Alisson’s!

#Ramsdale’s performances at the end of the season were average but his incredible start means he ended the year with great numbers!
#Mendy was in 2nd place for goal value throughout the year but a poor final few games caused him to drop off, still he was worth ~6 goals to #Chelsea!

#Lloris has gone under the radar this year & while his distribution was pretty weak his shot stopping & sweeping was class!
Read 10 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Feb 9
#DeGea struggles with close range 1v1s continue!

His decision making is good, as he doesn’t engage too soon & only engages once he cannot to react in time to the shot, but his problem is, as always, the way he twists his body away from contact which leaves gaps in his barrier! ImageImageImageImage
My model finds that if #DeGea had engaged the 1st touch the chance would’ve been 0.64 ExG because even though the 1v1 is quite far from goal engaging in that location would make the GK very vulnerable to the chip, sidefoot finish, and being rounded. Image
Engaging the 2nd touch, as #DeGea does, means the chance is actually 0.42 ExG as even though the 1v1 is closer to goal when the GK engages here there is usually very little space to exploit over, through, or round the GK!

Thus #DeGea’s decision was certainly a good one! Image
Read 6 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Dec 30, 2021
THREAD:

Today I’ll breakdown #DeGea’s performance in the #PremierLeague using my bespoke GK models!

The headline is for the first time in 3 seasons #DeGea’s shot stopping skills are outweighing his weak shot prevention skills & thus far he has saved #MUFC ~5 additional goals! Image
Shot Stopping:

#DeGea’s shot stopping has been world class, my model predicts he has saved #MUFC ~5 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!

The goalmouth map highlights just how hard #DeGea has been to beat, if you don’t hit the corners you won’t score! Image
Shot Stopping:

His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:

1. 24% Save Probability vs Jesus

2. 34% Save Probability vs Almiron

3. 42% Save Probability vs Pukki

They highlight #DeGea big strength, his reflexes & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area. ImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Dec 24, 2021
THREAD:

How good has #Ramsdale been for #Arsenal so far?

I’ve seen him described as both “the signing of the season” & “a camera save merchant” but what does the data say?

In this thread I will breakdown his performance in all areas of goalkeeping using my bespoke models

#AFC
Shot Stopping:

#Ramsdale’s shot stopping has been excellent, my model predicts he has saved #AFC ~3 goals more than an average #PL shot stopper would’ve thus far!

He’s basically only conceded vs close range shots in the corners & has pulled a few shots out of the top corners!
Shot Stopping:

His Best 3 Saves (Lowest ExSave Saves Made) are below 😮:

1. 31% Save Probability vs Bowen

2. 52% Save Probability vs Maddison

3. 57% Save Probability vs Moura

They highlight #Ramsdale big strength, his agility & ability to cover huge amounts of the goal area.
Read 16 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Nov 3, 2021
Last night was rough for #DeGea

The 1st goal was a textbook shot stopping technique selection mistake

The shot went next to DDG’s right foot but rather than go with his foot he went with his hand

It was odd to see as DDG’s shot stopping technique selection is usually flawless!
I actually thought #DeGea’s footwork before the shot occurred was excellent & it got him into a great position to make the save but his shot stopping technique selection let him down at the last moment & meant he couldn’t make the save!

#MUFC #UCL #ATAMUN
The 1st goal was a mistake but I am way more concerned about the 2nd.

Even though #DeGea had ample time to judge the 1v1 would be from close range he failed to get close enough to the ball to maximise the goal area covered & snuff out the shot.

He needed to be on top of the CF!
Read 11 tweets
John Harrison Profile picture
Nov 1, 2021
My models view of #Ramsdale’s FK save:

He was well positioned as he was stood on the line between the ball & the outside of the wall!

It was a good, but not unbelievable, save. My model finds such a FK gets saved ~50% of the time due to its low speed & distance from the post! Image
I’ve seen the save described on Twitter as both the save of the season & poor positioning followed by a slow recovery!

As usual the truth is between the two & I should make it clear here that saving a 50/50 shot is a lot closer to the save of the season than poor GKing!

#AFC Image
I should add that #Ramsdale had a phenomenal game, saving 4 out of 4 1v1s!

Which is unreal!

If you run all the shots he faced through my model you find #Ramsdale saved #AFC in total 2.38 goals above average which in a 2-0 win means he literally won them the game! Image
Read 4 tweets

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