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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 19

@BorisJohnson

1/5 A new essay by @BorisJohnson in @thetimes . He lists four main steps that all Ukrainian allies must take immediately to "ensure that Ukraine has the strategic endurance to survive and eventually prevail".

2/5 Ukraine must receive weapons, equipment, ammunition and training - fast.
My comment - allies need to launch weapons and ammunition production at full-speed. Ammunition plants need to be working non-stop so we gain advantage in firepower.

3/5 Funding and technical help so Ukraine keeps up with daily expenses and can begin reconstruction as soon and wherever it is possible. This help will need to be delivered for several years at least. EU will have a vital role in that.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 18

1/6 🇷🇺 reparations to 🇺🇦 are crucial to do justice and rebuild our country after the enormous destruction caused by 🇷🇺 invasion. And although this issue is being actively raised now, still there is no clear roadmap for making this happen. And it’s a problem.

2/6 UK thinktank Ceasefire says neither UN nor international courts would be good for this. UN decisions will be vetoed by 🇷🇺 itself and international courts can’t award reparations soon enough and with the required scope and scale. Changes in legislation would also be needed.

3/6 When it comes to the steps that countries are able to do individually, they can use frozen 🇷🇺 assets (e. g., oligarch’s yachts) and frozen 🇷🇺 central bank reserves held in G7 territories to pay directly to 🇺🇦. Both options create legal concerns in Europe.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 17

1/4 In order to ease the dependency on Russian fuels, EU has signed an agreement with Israel and Egypt to increase the gas shipment from the Mediterranean region.

2/4 These 2 countries together with Cyprus have about 2 trillion CBM of gas in their fields. And a similar amount will be probably found soon. To compare - last year, the EU bought 155 billion CBM from Russia.

3/4 However, this deal concerns quite small amounts, expert says. “The significant increase in gas shipments from this region to Europe would require major long-term infrastructure investments”. And the EU might choose to concentrate on the renewable energy.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 16

1/4 Latvia reports more than 400 attempts to break the sanctions against #russia and #belarus. Most perpetrators are forging their documentation for their cargo to appear legal, as there are some categories of goods to which the sanctions don’t apply.

2/4 EU claims that control is centered around product codes, but the first list of sanctions contained only product descriptions, not codes. Together with Ministry of Foreign Affairs #Latvia, we have compiled a list of permissible and prohibited codes to optimize the process

3/4 The chain of culprits is very long - the customer, supplier, carrier, loader. There are always going to be people playing the russian roulette and trying to cash in on illegal activity. Thanks to brilliant work of Latvian partners, however, all their efforts will fall flat!

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 16

1/4 After the russian invasion #oil prices skyrocketed which is very beneficial to oil refinery countries like #India. russia provides them huge discounts, selling oil for 30-35 dollars/barrel (meanwhile on the international market the price is 120 dollars/barrel)
#Banrussianoil

2/4 Most ships delivering oil are #European, #British or #Norwegian - up to 68%. 43% more were of #Greek origin. For ships delivering to India this percentage is even higher - approximately 80 %.

3/4 Since the full-scale invasion, export of refined #oil products from India rapidly grew from 580 000 to 685 000 barrels a day. A lot of it gets exported to Asian countries, but around 20% is purchased by Europe and the US.

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Anton Gerashchenko

@Gerashchenko_en

Jun 14

1/4 With European countries decreasing their oil purchases from russia and an approaching embargo on them, russia is looking for new ways to sell and deliver oil. Deliveries by sea and sales to non-EU countries (that did not impose sanctions) seem to be the obvious solution.

2/4 Since the invasion, russia has been actively using "traditional" methods used by smugglers at sea to carry its oil to destination. They switch off vessels' ID systems, trade cargo at sea (unlogged) and transfer ships' jurisdiction to other countries.

3/4 However, this will not make up for the amounts of oil that are about to come to the market. So russia is forced to sell them at a discount, and some countries are happy to restock - India is one of them. China is expected to join as well once it loosens lockdowns.

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