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Jun 22 • 3 tweets • 3 min read
The #Kremlin recently replaced the commander of the #VDV forces, may have fired the commander of the SMD, and appointed a new overall cmdr of #Russian forces in #Ukraine, indicating ongoing dysfunction in the Kremlin’s conduct of the war.

Read the latest: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Meanwhile, Russian forces are successfully advancing toward #Lysychansk from the south rather than making an opposed river crossing from #Severodonetsk, threatening Ukrainian defenses in the area.
This Russian advance is a clear setback for Ukrainian defenses in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area, but Russian forces will likely require further protracted battles with Ukrainian forces similar to the block-by-block fighting in Mariupol and Severodonetsk to capture Lysychansk.

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More from @TheStudyofWar

ISW Profile picture
Jun 20
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

Ukrainian sources confirmed that #Russian forces control all of #Severodonetsk except for the #Azot chemical plant, where fights are ongoing on June 20.
isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Russian forces focused on maintaining positions to the SE of #Izyum and west of #Lyman but did not make any confirmed advances towards #Slovyansk on June 20. Russian forces remain unlikely to advance on Slovyansk as they concentrate resources on the capture of Luhansk Oblast.
Russian forces continued efforts to interdict Ukrainian lines of communication east of Bakhmut along the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but did not make any confirmed advances on June 20. isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 18
#Russian forces are continuing to deploy additional forces to support offensive operations in the #Severodonetsk-#Lysychansk area; #Ukrainian defenses remain strong.

Read the latest from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
More from June 17:

- Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russian forces will attack Ukrainian positions near #Donetsk City but reiterated that the new tactic will require additional time during his address at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum.

isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
- Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a counteroffensive northwest of #Izyum intended to draw Russian forces away from offensive operations toward #Slovyansk and disrupt Russian supply lines and are making minor gains.

isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
Read 5 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 14
#Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the center of #Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge to #Lysychansk on 6/13, but Ukrainian officials said that Ukrainian forces are not encircled in the city. New w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
More from tonight's assessment, with axis-specific updates to follow:

Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia published and quickly removed an appeal by the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kirelenko for Russia to rebuild Donbas on 6/12. (1/3)
Izvestia likely intended to save the article for a later date to set informational conditions for Russian annexation of Donbas and blamed hackers for what they (likely falsely) claimed was a “fake publication.” (2/3)
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 12
#Russian forces continue to struggle with generating additional combat-capable units. Pro-Russian sources are continuing to spread disinformation to sow anxiety and resentment among the #Ukrainian population.

Read today's report: isw.pub/RusCampaignJun…
The UK Ministry of Defense reported on June 12 that Russian forces have been trying to produce more combat units by preparing to deploy third battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from some units over the last few weeks.
The UK MoD further noted that Russian brigades and regiments normally can generate two BTGs; however, doing so leaves the parent units largely hollow shells, as these third BTGs will likely be understaffed and rely on recruits and mobilized reservists.
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
Jun 6
Here are today's control-of-terrain maps for #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats, followed by a brief thread on recent changes. (1/4)
We recessed Ukrainian counteroffensives in Severodonetsk that we coded on 6/5 and advanced assessed Russian advance to the city's industrial area near the Azot chemical plant given Luhansk Oblast Governor Serhiy Haidai stated on 6/6 that the situation has "deteriorated." (2/4)
Haidai’s June 6 statement marked a significant change in Haidai’s characterization of the situation in Severodonetsk from June 5, in which he stated that Ukrainian counterattacks recaptured half of the city. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
ISW Profile picture
May 31
New: Moscow’s focus on seizing #Severodonetsk (and Donbas) is creating vulnerabilities for Russia in Kherson Oblast, where Ukrainian counter-offensives continue. Ukrainian leadership has apparently wisely avoided matching Putin’s mistaken prioritization. isw.pub/RusCampaignMay…
Sound Ukrainian prioritization of counter-offensive and defensive operations pushed the Russians almost out of artillery range of #Kharkiv City and have stopped the Russian advances from #Izyum—both of which are more important accomplishments than the defense of #Severodonetsk.
Ukrainian forces are now apparently withdrawing from #Severodonetsk rather than fighting to the end—a factor that has allowed the Russians to move into the city relatively rapidly after beginning their full-scale assault.
Read 6 tweets

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