You might conclude there are no data on lab lib overt/covert pacts.

You wonder. Has no one analysed whether to compete?

TLDR you'd be right to ask. And maybe then surprised. The bigger issue is that 75% of #Johnson's seats are due to a huge mess-up on this in 2019
Data follow⬇️
Ok first #TivertonandHoniton #Wakefield

Was it worth lab and lib striking local "non-compete" agreements?

Absolutely.

LSE analysis shows⬇️📈vote share can shift ~5-30% just by not competing. Or this week maybe a darn lot more.

blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
Someone may want to argue lib dems do slightly better.

They do.
But that's because they start far smaller
AND it's easier for marginal voters to settle on centrist.

Also that effect is minor vs the boost labour gets from LD where they need it.

But one more thing...
"Morality" of intelligent voting in a busted FPTP system gerrymandered with Voter ID?

If that is still bothering you.
Or if you're just not a maths and statistics person...

Did you forget this?
Mail. Why is it so hard to find a rhyme for hypocritical client journalist.
It's worth showing you why to bother to form agreements locally.

Let's go mad. Say some nut jobs dust off the squeeze the middle plan that failed last time.

In 2019 the lib/lab war gave #Johnson 75% of his seats.

Thiemo noticed this within seconds⬇️

Every seat lost like this is +2 majority for Johnson (➖▶️➕)

I spent years cross-party to get a particularly lazy Tory MP voted out where I live. It needed mutual effort, but we won in 2017.

Imagine my delight when in '19 the nut jobs helped tories to win again by 150 votes
I might add a data appendix.
Historically you can show a more general point is true, that progressives lose, tories don't win.

None of this incidentally needs THE ALLIANCE.
If you have an agenda, deliberately conflating these two ideas is easy.

Rejecting this may be smart⬇️
Advocates of a broad progressive alliance? I don't mean you, let me underline the point.

I don't have a view on public alliances; not enough data, and too much to risk.

I do have a view that tactical non-compete works: not fielding against each other is smart.

And avoids this!

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More from @atatimelikethis

Jun 27
Since everyone is talking Criminal Justice today, for obvious reasons, some thoughts below.

Every time Patel plays Gesture Politics, changes sentences, botches laws, adds grounds for appeal, she knows she's making a broken system worse.

Proof of insincerity and/or incompetence?
How does Criminal Justice end up like this?

This man ⬇️ is a victim of another Home Office miscarriage of justice.

His pursuit by Patel is political. And the cost is massive amounts of Court and Barrister time.

Now recall, he is just one of thousands.

I doubt you're a fan of the Government's Rwanda Policy.

But imagine you were. Most likely you wouldn't want it in court, failing to work. You'd want to avoid last minute appeals.

Yet Patel creates exactly those problems. This is how to avoid them ⬇️

Read 6 tweets
May 10
Whatever faces the UK, it's complex. To prosper we will need these:

Careful, long term thinking
Objectivity in difficult tradeoffs
Honesty, shrewd negotiation
Deep analysis and preparation
Dedicated ruthless planning

Meanwhile it's #Bodger #Johnson's Queens Speech.

Chances? ❌
This dichotomy is just weird:

Take #Brexit.

Imagine, if you can; your passion for extracting the UK from the EU was unpersuaded by any argument to the contrary.

OK.

But did you think doing it was so simple that Slapdash-cover-the-cracks Bodger was the guy to run it?
Out of the blue, we faced a Global #COVID19 Pandemic.

OK,caught a little short with the No 10 leadership. It happens.

But maybe reconsider when you found out he dodged all the scientific briefings at the start to write a book?

You wanted to #Bodger your way through?
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27
The High Court has found the #HomeOffice guilty of illegal mugging of Asylum Seekers.

It is NOT illegal to flee danger, but the HO wrongly said it was, deciding to steal possessions from victims. That IS illegal.

No one knows where this 2020 policy originated. Some ideas ⬇️ ImageImageImageImage
@pritipatel has constantly and deliberately (unless she's just stupid) lied about the legality of those who flee danger to come to our country.

She also characterised the victims of violence as economic migrants - a number her HO data says is vanishingly small.⬇️ ImageImage
Today is #HolocaustMemorialDay

Lest any of us forget, this was an event, the result of a policy of hate directed toward a marginalised community unable to defend itself by lying positions wishing to rabble rouse and distract a disenchanted set of deceived voters.

Familiar?
Read 4 tweets
Oct 31, 2021
How may I say this MORE CLEARLY?
Unique amongst developed countries
- our Government of Social Mass Murderers
- have chosen against all scientific advice
- to drop ALL social distancing measures
- and rely on vaccines alone.

These DEATHS are on their hands
Back story attached.
WHY?
HOW?
WTF?

You may ask.

And then, very sadly, be as shocked and horrified as we are one of the last free newspapers in the UK...

when you discover the answer.

If.
Even for a moment.
You think vaccines make this fine.
That we can sit comfortable in complacency.
And let it roll all over us.
As they initially hoped.
I ask you to indulge in a game of "Evil Genius"

It'll answer on many levels why complacency = ☠️

Read 4 tweets
Oct 28, 2021
Let's think about this.

Apparently, you live in a sovereign parliamentary democracy with a free press.

Yesterday the leaders sold a build back better budget as a victory.

90% of the Press (excl⬇️) "forgot" to mention

1. Almost all will be worse off ...
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
2. Due to a #BrexitDisaster twice as bad as the pandemic effect
3. With the UK still topping the charts for worse Pandemic results⬇️
4. Results those in charge have made worse by consistently delaying decisions
5. While they gas lit jingoism to distract

6. And failed to examine and hence learn from their own mistakes
7. Blaming others for the shoddy deals they signed that messed up our country
8. Even spinning an appalling vaccination climb down⬇️ into an act of global generosity

Read 5 tweets

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