You might conclude there are no data on lab lib overt/covert pacts.
You wonder. Has no one analysed whether to compete?
TLDR you'd be right to ask. And maybe then surprised. The bigger issue is that 75% of #Johnson's seats are due to a huge mess-up on this in 2019
Data follow⬇️
You wonder. Has no one analysed whether to compete?
TLDR you'd be right to ask. And maybe then surprised. The bigger issue is that 75% of #Johnson's seats are due to a huge mess-up on this in 2019
Data follow⬇️
Ok first #TivertonandHoniton #Wakefield
Was it worth lab and lib striking local "non-compete" agreements?
Absolutely.
LSE analysis shows⬇️📈vote share can shift ~5-30% just by not competing. Or this week maybe a darn lot more.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
Was it worth lab and lib striking local "non-compete" agreements?
Absolutely.
LSE analysis shows⬇️📈vote share can shift ~5-30% just by not competing. Or this week maybe a darn lot more.
blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpol…
Someone may want to argue lib dems do slightly better.
They do.
But that's because they start far smaller
AND it's easier for marginal voters to settle on centrist.
Also that effect is minor vs the boost labour gets from LD where they need it.
But one more thing...
They do.
But that's because they start far smaller
AND it's easier for marginal voters to settle on centrist.
Also that effect is minor vs the boost labour gets from LD where they need it.
But one more thing...
"Morality" of intelligent voting in a busted FPTP system gerrymandered with Voter ID?
If that is still bothering you.
Or if you're just not a maths and statistics person...
Did you forget this?
Mail. Why is it so hard to find a rhyme for hypocritical client journalist.
If that is still bothering you.
Or if you're just not a maths and statistics person...
Did you forget this?
Mail. Why is it so hard to find a rhyme for hypocritical client journalist.
It's worth showing you why to bother to form agreements locally.
Let's go mad. Say some nut jobs dust off the squeeze the middle plan that failed last time.
In 2019 the lib/lab war gave #Johnson 75% of his seats.
Thiemo noticed this within seconds⬇️
Let's go mad. Say some nut jobs dust off the squeeze the middle plan that failed last time.
In 2019 the lib/lab war gave #Johnson 75% of his seats.
Thiemo noticed this within seconds⬇️
https://twitter.com/fetzert/status/1205429124111781888?t=HCHi7HtpBT4MvCzd0Al25g&s=19
Every seat lost like this is +2 majority for Johnson (➖▶️➕)
I spent years cross-party to get a particularly lazy Tory MP voted out where I live. It needed mutual effort, but we won in 2017.
Imagine my delight when in '19 the nut jobs helped tories to win again by 150 votes
I spent years cross-party to get a particularly lazy Tory MP voted out where I live. It needed mutual effort, but we won in 2017.
Imagine my delight when in '19 the nut jobs helped tories to win again by 150 votes
I might add a data appendix.
Historically you can show a more general point is true, that progressives lose, tories don't win.
None of this incidentally needs THE ALLIANCE.
If you have an agenda, deliberately conflating these two ideas is easy.
Rejecting this may be smart⬇️
Historically you can show a more general point is true, that progressives lose, tories don't win.
None of this incidentally needs THE ALLIANCE.
If you have an agenda, deliberately conflating these two ideas is easy.
Rejecting this may be smart⬇️
Advocates of a broad progressive alliance? I don't mean you, let me underline the point.
I don't have a view on public alliances; not enough data, and too much to risk.
I do have a view that tactical non-compete works: not fielding against each other is smart.
And avoids this!
I don't have a view on public alliances; not enough data, and too much to risk.
I do have a view that tactical non-compete works: not fielding against each other is smart.
And avoids this!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
