Peter Zeihan Profile picture
Jun 30 4 tweets 2 min read
1/
Someone asked if there is good demographic data yet from #China's 2010 #census. The short answer is "no". Full release has not yet happened. BUT the Chinese ARE publicly discussing the fact that they overcounted their #population by 100m people...
2/
...all of which would have been born since One Child, with most of the missing millions being women. So I've done a rough mock-up of what that might look like. Details will obv vary, but based on what has been released I'm confident this is within the ballpark.
3/
Keep in mind that even before this revision, the Chinese demographic wasn't simply already terminal, it was already in a state of collapse.
The graphic w/o the yellow bars is the 2020 data.
The yellow bars are the theoretical missing millions.
4/
The end...of China/

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More from @PeterZeihan

May 1
#UkraineWar
Let me start by saying I have no firsthand knowledge of this. Simply spitballing based on what we know from adjacent information.

The US is very clearly reading #Putin's mail and listening to his phone calls.
1/
We are as certain as we can be that the US provided targeting information for ##Ukraine's attack on the #Moskva. Now 20 high ranking Russian officers? In one place? Along with the theater commander Putin dispatched to get him a victory before May9?
2/
I'm betting the US provided Ukraine w the time & place. Maybe even the weapon.
Looking forward, unless there is an immense improvement in Russia's information security, the US will work with Ukrainians to decapitate every single force the Russians put in the field.
3/
Read 6 tweets
Mar 26
This is massive. Germany resisted any sort of combined EU debt raising capacity from the start. Before this fund was formed in 2020, the only way the EU could get money was if member states <gave> them the money.
reuters.com/world/europe/e…
1/
Now the EU can issue its own bonds. Germany only agreed to it because of the Covid crisis. Here's what I wrote on the subject when it happened:
zeihan.com/a-faint-flicke…
2/
Now Germany - "i'm-not-paying-for-your-mistakes Germany - is suggesting the EU raise more debt to finance a war vs Russia. In many ways this is a bigger & more effective step than Germany asking EU members to deploy their militaries to Ukraine to fight Russia directly.
3/
Read 4 tweets
Mar 2
Here's the UNGA vote on condemning Russia. A few thoughts.
1/ #Syria. No shocker how they voted. But the remaining Russian forces there are about to be cut off from...everything. #Turkey has already closed the Turkish Straits to Russian ships. Wanna kill some Russians without going to Ukraine? Here's your opportunity.
2/ #Mongolia abstained. While not technically a Russian satellite, they remain under heavy Russian influence. Arguably heavier than during the Soviet period. Really cheeses off the Chinese.
Read 9 tweets
Mar 1
Here's one of many snapshots of that 40 mile long traffic jam of Russian heavy equipment. Some thoughts:

First, it'll take longer for it to get where its going than you think. This isn't the Canadian trucker convoy where they could stop for fuel as they goal...

1/ Image
They have to bring their own. 40 MILES of vehicles will move vvvvvvvvvveeeeeerrrrrrrrrrrryyyyyyyyyy sssssssssssslllllllllllooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwllllllllllllyyyy. Military vehicles like tanks get about 1 mile per gallon. They'll likely all run out of fuel multiple times.

2/
And the convoy is so long and moving so slow that every time one vehicle stops, EVERY VEHICLE BEHIND IT MUST STOP AS WELL. I can explain away much of what has gone wrong for Russia in the war to date as it simply being the first week...

3/
Read 5 tweets
Feb 27
Lots here. General update:

1/ The Russian advanced into #Kharkiv, up in northeast #Ukraine and hard on the Russian border, was chopped to bits
wsj.com/articles/ukrai…
2/ Ukraine is forming an international branch of their "military "which will make it much easier for anyone in the world and wants to come and join the fight to do so
3/ #Kiev again repulsed a Russian assault. Once Russian armor was dispatched, Kiev spent the night purging itself of Russian foot soldiers
4/ Russian armor is flowing in from #Belarus on multiple vectors, with the intent of hitting Kiev from multiple directions
Read 5 tweets
Feb 26
DW dumped everything they had into a single article. In no particular order.
1/ The French have started seizing Russian cargo ships on the high seas. That's kinda badass. Very pre-WWI.
dw.com/en/ukraine-hea…
2/ Heavy fighting near Mariupol. Russian forces are pushing out of those eastern secessionist enclaves with the goal of linking up with Crimea.
3/ Facebook decided that while they are fine posting xenophobic and genocidal propaganda from China, actual war propaganda is a step too far. Facebook has barred all Russian entities from putting up ads on their platform.
Read 4 tweets

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