Each one has its own metrics and therefore slightly different, yet similar outcome
We can confirm the correlation is there and therefore by combining all the assets, we can find the outcomes for them together.
6/
๐น DXY correlation
But the root cause of it all is the Dollar and the FED policy on QE/QT & interest rates
Where DXY goes, the others follow
Now if we put #DXY & #BTC together we won't find that many similarities but if we invert the chart and adjust the scale a bit. VOILA
7/
Here we can see the clear picture of the Market tops & bottoms.
The only difference is that Bitcoin is a new approaching asset and therefore its strength sends us much higher each cycle vs other assets
8/
With this confirmed correlation we can clearly say #Bitcoin is treated as a newly found commodity in the digital area in a digital space.
To further validify this observation even the head from the #SEC, Gary Gensler of the "opposition side" has confirmed this
9/
So with this confirmed to know where the bottom for #Bitcoin is going to be is to look where the bottom for #Silver & #Copper & #DXY and other correlated assets is going to be.
It's that simple.
We will look at both Technical & Fundamental narrative.
10/
๐น Copper sharp drops
One thing to point out is when there was a recession capitulation, Copper prices were falling down a lot in a down-only manner & each time that happened it marked the bottom soon after
2008/9, Covid, & Now again
11/
๐น Technicals
From a TA perspective, we are now approaching the biggest demand zone in years for Copper on the Monthly chart.
The similar one we approached in 2008, which has marked the bottom after a down-only move.
The same level we are also approaching on Silver
12/
These demand zones will be heavily defended so if we agree the correlation is indisputable and that these demand zones are gonna hold for metals (more on that later), what does that imply for #Bitcoin?
It implies we will be bottoming in the area between 20-14K apx
13/
Now if we see High Timeframe supports across the board, therefore we should see a HTF resistance on DXY. And truly we do.
All after a big rally this year on the QT, rate hikes & war news, and in general, fight the inflation policy
After all that settles, DXY will go back.
14/
๐น Fundamentals
Now I understand many of you ask yourself a question, but J what if all Silver, Copper & therefore also BTC just keeps going down & DXY up?
And that's a very valid question and I think the answer can be found in a rather simple realization
15/
The world has realized that we are running on a system with unlimited supply (fiat currency) & limited commodities such as food, oil, BTC, silver & so on
After the initial panic this year, what do you think everyone will try to gather? The unlimited stuff? Or the scarce?
16/
The world more than ever is starting to appreciate stuff that is scarce
Therefore the real question you should ask is:
Will Copper, Silver & other stuff go lower? Will they break their multi-year support on a world demand? If the answer is no, the same is expected for BTC
17/
And the reason why I do not expect the prices to lose their multi-year support is that if they have, they'd lose the Covid lows which would break the HTF market structure and I do not see that happening
I think we see a new ATH on Silver, Copper, and so on in the future
18/
If we can agree on that as well then the last question is
If that's all true why not just buy Silver, Copper or others? Why BTC?
Well as always the best option is diversification and you can't go wrong. Duh
But from a max Risk to Reward point of view, BTC is the winner ๐
19/
It's because as I said in the beginning, it's a new appreciating asset and the world is still trying to find a proper value for it
Therefore it offers bigger moves down but also higher moves up, percentage-wise
It's the price you pay for being early & the reward it offers
20/
And while others barely break their past cycle ATH or not at all, BTC has been doing that every time
However, in this decade of the world looking for value & scarce stuff, I believe all will break its ATH, even Silver
As we enter new era of commodity-backed monetary system
21/
From a local view, if we anticipate a HTF bounce, we can also anticipate the market to fill the CME gaps as it so often does and does provide a further confluence
We currently have three open ones above us, while we have filled the ones below
22/
If you are looking for more Bitcoin solely evidence I highly recommend reading this awesome thread ๐งต by my friend @Phoenix_Ash3s where he goes deep on on-chain stuff and other interesting takes, where I'd only repeat what has already been said ๐
Also be sure to read my take on past cycle mistakes waiting for lower prices, being scared to buy & so on, that could help you big time do the right thing this time! ๐
You don't wanna miss this #Bitcoin alpha thread ๐งต๐
#BTC around 50K is still within a strong value area
Lots of people sidelined, waiting for a bigger correction will miss out
Data from Financial Advisors across the US are suggesting big future upside
1/20
Read below๐
First of all, I did expect we would get the upside we got from the 40-45K range, but after, I thought we would get a deeper pullback at some point to like 32K or so
I do not think that anymore
Below is the original thread worth your time to read through
No emotional bias, just truth bombs full of data & mainly my own context โ
Both bullish & bearish arguments - HTF to LTF
Hit like & Bookmark to keep this plan in the back of your mind
Let's get to it ๐
1/25
We start HTF, scale in & create the valuable context ๐
So my thesis has been & is still the same throughout the whole of 2023, that we move above the so important psychological level of March 22 high, sitting at 48K, distribute above & pullback
๐งต Big thread on INTEREST RATES around the Western economies & their future projections & implications on the markets
Everyone's focus is on the FED funds rate but by understanding all of them we get a much clearer picture of where the FED is heading ๐ก
Let's dive in ๐
1/22
As you can see from the picture, central banks in Western economies tend to move the interest rates on average in a similar trend
We could even call it a consensus
However, some are frontrunners & some laggards and by comparing them all, we can get a general idea of the trend
Each economy has its own factors & issues that come to play in each country of course, which is the reason why we see some deviations here & there on a lower quarterly or yearly scale. But the general trend stays
So why is it that they all move together on average? ๐